Vulnerability of the northern Mongolian steppe to climate change: insights from flower production and phenology

The semiarid, northern Mongolian steppe, which still supports pastoral nomads who have used the steppe for millennia, has experienced an average 1.7 degrees C temperature rise over the past 40 years. Continuing climate change is likely to affect flowering phenology and flower numbers with potentially important consequences for plant community composition, ecosystem services, and herder livelihoods. Over the growing seasons of 2009 and 2010, we examined flowering responses to climate manipulation using open-top passive warming chambers (OTCs) at two locations on a south-facing slope: one on the moister, cooler lower slope and the other on the drier, warmer upper slope, where a watering treatment was added in a factorial design with warming. Canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) revealed that OTCs reduced flower production and delayed peak flowering in graminoids as a whole but only affected forbs on the upper slope, where peak flowering was also delayed. OTCs affected flowering phenology in seven of eight species, which were examined individually, either by altering the time of peak flowering and/or the onset and/or cessation of flowering, as revealed by survival analysis. In 2010, which was the drier year, OTCs reduced flower production in two grasses but increased production in an annual forb found only on the upper slope. The particular effects of OTCs on phenology, and whether they caused an extension or contraction of the flowering season, differed among species, and often depended on year, or slope, or watering treatment; however, a relatively strong pattern emerged for 2010 when four species showed a contraction of the flowering season in OTCs. Watering increased flower production in two species in 2010, but slope location more often affected flowering phenology than did watering. Our results show the importance of taking landscape-scale variation into account in climate change studies and also contrasted with those of several studies set in cold, but wetter systems, where warming often causes greater or accelerated flower production. In cold, water-limited systems like the Mongolian steppe, warming may reduce flower numbers or the length of the flowering season by adding to water stress more than it relieves cold stress.     

Methane flux in non-wetland soils in response to nitrogen addition: a meta-analysis

The controls on methane (CH4) flux into and out of soils are not well understood. Environmental variables including temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen (N) status can have strong effects on the magnitude and direction (e.g., uptake vs. release) of CH4 flux. To better understand the interactions between CH4-cycling microorganisms and N in the non-wetland soil system, a meta-analysis was performed on published literature comparing CH4 flux in N amended and matched control plots. An appropriate study index was developed for this purpose. It was found that smaller amounts of N tended to stimulate CH4 uptake while larger amounts tended to inhibit uptake by the soil. When all other variables were accounted for, the switch occurred at 100 kg N x ha(-1) x yr(-1). Managed land and land with a longer duration of fertilization showed greater inhibition of CH4 uptake with added N. These results support the hypotheses that large amounts of available N can inhibit methanotrophy, but also that methanotrophs in upland soils can be N limited in their consumption of CH4 from the atmosphere. There were interactions between other variables and N addition on the CH4 flux response: lower temperature and, to a lesser extent, higher precipitation magnified the inhibition of CH4 uptake due to N addition. Several mechanisms that may cause these trends are discussed, but none could be conclusively supported with this approach. Further controlled and in situ study should be undertaken to isolate the correct mechanism(s) responsible and to model upland CH4 flux.