Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Evaluating the impacts of multiple generalist fungal pathogens on temperate tree seedling survival

Host-specific mortality driven by natural enemies is a widely discussed mechanism for explaining plant diversity. In principle, populations of plant species can be regulated by distinct host-specific natural enemies that have weak or nonexistent effects on heterospecific competitors, preventing any single species from becoming dominant and thus promoting diversity. Two of the first steps in exploring the role of natural enemies in diversity regulation are to (1) identify potential enemies and (2) evaluate their levels of host specificity by determining if interactions between any one host and its enemy have equivalent survival impacts on co-occurring host species. We developed a bioinformatics framework to evaluate impacts of potential pathogens on seedling survival, for both single and multiple infections. Importantly, we consider scenarios not only if there are specialist pathogens for each plant, but also when generalist pathogens have differential effects on multiple host species, and when co-infection has species-specific effects. We then applied this analytical framework to a field experiment using molecular techniques to detect potential fungal pathogens on co-occurring tree seedling hosts. Combinatorial complexity created by 160 plant-fungus interactions was reduced to eight combinations that affect seedling survival. Potential fungal pathogens had broad host ranges, but seedling species were each regulated by different combinations of fungi or by generalist fungi that had differential effects on multiple plant species. Soil moisture can have the potential to shift the nature of the interactions in some plant-fungal combinations from neutral to detrimental. Reassessing the assumption of single-enemy-single-host interactions broadens the mechanisms through which natural enemies can influence plant diversity.     

CLIMATE FORECASTS IN FLOOD PLANNING: PROMISE AND AMBIGUITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.     

Gauging the Vulnerability of Local Water Systems to Extreme Events

Water utilities that rely on surface water may be vulnerable to future droughts and floods, a vulnerability that may be magnified by climate perturbations as well as shorter-term and, in some cases, ongoing changes in the political and regulatory environment in which utilities operate. Unfortunately, day-to-day responsibilities currently occupy most utility operators, leaving little time to plan for inherently uncertain effects. The record of actual responses to past droughts and floods can be illuminating, however, particularly when placed in the context of plausible hydrologic disruption and pressures such as population growth, floodplain development and new regulatory demands. This paper draws on interviews with water utility operators in the northwestern USA to highlight opportunities and constraints that water utilities may face vis-à-vis such disruptions. Key considerations affecting vulnerabilities include water rights, institutional barriers to efficient utility operations, hazard management policy and the fiscal status of utilities.