Understanding the Lessons and Limitations of Conservation and Development

Abstract: The lack of concrete instances in which conservation and development have been successfully merged has strengthened arguments for strict exclusionist conservation policies. Research has focused more on social cooperation and conflict of different management regimes and less on how these factors actually affect the natural environments they seek to conserve. Consequently, it is still unknown which strategies yield better conservation outcomes? We conducted a meta‐analysis of 116 published case studies on common resource management regimes from Africa, south and central America, and southern and Southeast Asia. Using ranked sociodemographic, political, and ecological data, we analyzed the effect of land tenure, population size, social heterogeneity, as well as internally devised resource‐management rules and regulations (institutions) on conservation outcome. Although land tenure, population size, and social heterogeneity did not significantly affect conservation outcome, institutions were positively associated with better conservation outcomes. There was also a significant interaction effect between population size and institutions, which implies complex relationships between population size and conservation outcome. Our results suggest that communities managing a common resource can play a significant role in conservation and that institutions lead to management regimes with lower environmental impacts.     

A Comparison of Volunteer,BioRID P3 and Hybrid III Performance in Rear Impacts

The most important tool for testing seat-systems in rear impacts is a crash test dummy. However, investigators have noted limitations of the most commonly used dummy, the Hybrid III. The BioRID I is a step closer to a biofidelic crash test dummy, but it is not user-friendly and the straightening of the thoracic spine kyphosis is smaller than that 220of humans. To reduce these problems, a new BioRID prototype was developed, the P3. It has new neck muscle substitutes, a softer thoracic spine and a softer rubber torso than does the BioRID I.

The BioRID P3 was compared with volunteer test data in a rigid and a standard seal without head restraints. The dummy kinematic performance, pressure distribution between subject and seatback, neck loads and accelerations were compared with those of ten volunteers and a Hybrid III. The BioRID P3 provided repeatable test results and its response was very similar to that of the average volunteer in rear impacts at Δv = 9 km/h.     

Human Volunteer Kinematics in Rear-End Sled Collisions

Validation of new crash test dummies for rear-end collision testing requires human response data from pertinent test situations. Eleven human volunteers were exposed to 23 low-speed rear impacts to determine human response in well-defined test seats, and to quantify repeatability, variability and the effect of seat design on human response.

The results showed vertical motion of the volunteers’ H-point caused by ramping up along the seat, and an upward motion of the volunteers’ torso and head. The latter was caused by a combination of ramping up along the seatback and straightening of the thoracic kyphosis. During the first 100 ms, the volunteers flexed their necks. Thereafter, the volunteers extended their necks. These new data have proven to be useful in validation of rear-impact dummies.     

Influence of the Anterior and Middle Cranial Fossae on Brain Kinematics During Sagittal Plane Head Rotation

A 2D physical model of the human head was used to investigate how the irregular skull base structure affects brain kinematics during sagittal plane head dynamics. The model consisted of a rigid skull vessel with interchangeable skull base structures. One version of the model used a skull base mimicking the irregular geometry of the human. A second version used a skull base structure approximating the anterior and middle fossae as a flat surface. Silicone gel simulated the brain and was separated from the vessel by a paraffin layer which provided a slip condition at the interface between the gel and vessel. The model was exposed to 7600 rad/s² peak rotational acceleration with 6 ms pulse duration and 5° forced rotation. After 90° free rotation, the model was decelerated during 30 ms. Five repeated tests were conducted with each version. Rigid body displacement, shear strain and principal strains were determined from high-speed video recorded trajectories of grid markers located at different positions in the surrogate brain. The humanlike skull base reduced peak displacements of the inferior surfaces of the temporal and frontal lobes up to 87% and 48%, respectively. Up to 48% and 36% higher peak strains were obtained in the frontal and superior regions of the surrogate brain in the version containing the humanlike skull base. In contrast, the humanlike skull base decreased peak strain up to 28% in the central region of the surrogate brain. The results indicate that the irregular skull base offers natural protection of nerves and vessels passing through fissures and foramina in the cranial floor but also that it affects kinematics in different regions throughout the cerebrum. Implications of these results are discussed with respect to brain injury and modeling of head impact.     

Why Aid Agencies Need Better Understanding of the Communities They Assist: The Experience of Food Aid in Rwandan Refugee Camps

Refugee views on food aid reveal the ignorance of the international community regarding Rwandan culture, economy and politics. This ignorance carries a number of costs. On one level, the main cost is that a professional service is not carried out to the best of one's ability. Ignorance of Rwanda's North–South divide, for instance, has caused agencies to be insensitive to in-camp discrimination based upon regional identity and its impact on programme activities. On a deeper level, agency ignorance about Rwandan culture, economy and the dynamics of camp politics, reduces refugee confidence in humanitarian agencies and workers. Better information would not only result in the greater likelihood of appropriate responses to specific needs, but would also encourage greater credibility in the political arena where the ultimate stake is to see lasting peace and a dignified return of refugees to their homes.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas