Sensitivity Analyses of Spatial Population Viability Analysis Models for Species at Risk and Habitat Conservation Planning

Abstract:  Population viability analysis (PVA) is an effective framework for modeling species- and habitat-recovery efforts, but uncertainty in parameter estimates and model structure can lead to unreliable predictions. Integrating complex and often uncertain information into spatial PVA models requires that comprehensive sensitivity analyses be applied to explore the influence of spatial and nonspatial parameters on model predictions. We reviewed 87 analyses of spatial demographic PVA models of plants and animals to identify common approaches to sensitivity analysis in recent publications. In contrast to best practices recommended in the broader modeling community, sensitivity analyses of spatial PVAs were typically ad hoc, inconsistent, and difficult to compare. Most studies applied local approaches to sensitivity analyses, but few varied multiple parameters simultaneously. A lack of standards for sensitivity analysis and reporting in spatial PVAs has the potential to compromise the ability to learn collectively from PVA results, accurately interpret results in cases where model relationships include nonlinearities and interactions, prioritize monitoring and management actions, and ensure conservation-planning decisions are robust to uncertainties in spatial and nonspatial parameters. Our review underscores the need to develop tools for global sensitivity analysis and apply these to spatial PVA.     

Trade-Offs in the Design of Fishery Closures: Management of Silky Shark Bycatch in the Eastern Pacific Ocean Tuna Fishery

Abstract:  Bycatch—the incidental catch of nontarget species—is a principal concern in marine conservation and fisheries management. In the eastern Pacific Ocean tuna fishery, a large fraction of nonmammal bycatch is captured by purse-seine gear when nets are deployed around floating objects. We examined the spatial distribution of a dominant species in this fishery's bycatch, the apex predator silky shark ( Carcharhinus falciformis ), from 1994 to 2005 to determine whether spatial closures, areas where fishing is prohibited, might effectively reduce the bycatch of this species. We then identified candidate locations for fishery closures that specifically considered the trade-off between bycatch reduction and the loss of tuna catch and evaluated ancillary conservation benefits to less commonly captured taxa. Smoothed spatial distributions of silky shark bycatch did not indicate persistent small areas of especially high bycatch for any size class of shark over the 12-year period. Nevertheless, bycatch of small silky sharks (<90 cm total length) was consistently higher north of the equator during all years. On the basis of this distribution, we evaluated nearly 100 candidate closure areas between 5°N and 15°N that could have reduced, by as much as 33%, the total silky shark bycatch while compromising only 12% of the tuna catch. Although silky sharks are the predominant species of elasmobranchs caught as bycatch in this fishery, closures also suggested reductions in the bycatch of other vulnerable taxa, including other shark species and turtles. Our technique provides an effective method with which to balance the costs and benefits of conservation in fisheries management. Spatial closures are a viable management tool, but implementation should be preceded by careful consideration of the consequences of fishing reallocation.     

Trade‐offs among Catch,Bycatch, and Landed Value in the American Samoa Longline Fishery

The interspecific preferences of fishes for different depths and habitats suggest fishers could avoid unwanted catches of some species while still effectively targeting other species. In pelagic longline fisheries, albacore (Thunnus alalunga) are often caught in relatively cooler, deeper water (>100 m) than many species of conservation concern (e.g., sea turtles, billfishes, and some sharks) that are caught in shallower water (<100 m). From 2007 to 2011, we examined the depth distributions of hooks for 1154 longline sets (3,406,946 hooks) and recorded captures by hook position on 2642 sets (7,829,498 hooks) in the American Samoa longline fishery. Twenty‐three percent of hooks had a settled depth <100 m. Individuals captured in the 3 shallowest hook positions accounted for 18.3% of all bycatch. We analyzed hypothetical impacts for 25 of the most abundant species caught in the fishery by eliminating the 3 shallowest hook positions under scenarios with and without redistribution of these hooks to deeper depths. Distributions varied by species: 45.5% (n = 10) of green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas), 59.5% (n = 626) of shortbill spearfish (Tetrapturus angustirostris), 37.3% (n = 435) of silky shark (Carcharhinus falciformis), and 42.6% (n = 150) of oceanic whitetip shark (C. longimanus) were caught on the 3 shallowest hooks. Eleven percent (n = 20,435) of all tuna and 8.5% (n = 10,374) of albacore were caught on the 3 shallowest hooks. Hook elimination reduced landed value by 1.6–9.2%, and redistribution of hooks increased average annual landed value relative to the status quo by 5–11.7%. Based on these scenarios, redistribution of hooks to deeper depths may provide an economically feasible modification to longline gear that could substantially reduce bycatch for a suite of vulnerable species. Our results suggest that this method may be applicable to deep‐set pelagic longline fisheries worldwide. Compensaciones entre Captura, Captura Accesoria y Valores Asentados en la Pesquera de Línea Larga de Samoa Americana