Impact of floodplain and Stage 0 stream restoration on flood attenuation and floodplain exchange during small frequent storms

River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Prenatal prediction of childhood-onset spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) in Turkish families

Childhood-onset spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is one of the most common neurodegenerative genetic disorders. SMN1 is the SMA-determining gene deleted or mutated in the majority of SMA cases. There is no effective cure or treatment for this disease yet. Thus, the availability of prenatal testing is important. Here we report prenatal prediction for 68 fetuses in 63 Turkish SMA families using direct deletion analysis of the SMN1 gene by restriction digestion. The genotype of the index case was known in 40 families (Group A) but unknown in the remaining 23 families (Group B). A total of ten fetuses were predicted to be affected. Eight of these fetuses were derived from Group A and two of these fetuses were from Group B families. Two fetuses from the same family in Group A had the SMNhyb1 gene in addition to homozygous deletion of the NAIP gene. One fetus from Group A was homozygously deleted for only exon 8 of the SMN2 gene, and further analysis showed the presence of both the SMN1 and SMNhyb1 genes but not the SMN2 gene. In addition, one carrier with a homozygous deletion of only exon 8 of the SMN1 gene was detected to have a SMNhyb2 gene, which was also found in the fetus. To our knowledge, these are the first prenatal cases with SMNhyb genes. Follow-up studies demonstrated that the prenatal predictions and the phenotype of the fetuses correlated well in 33 type I pregnancies demonstrating that a careful molecular analysis of the SMN genes is very useful in predicting the phenotype of the fetus in families at risk for SMA. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotope tracing of submarine groundwater discharge offshore Ubatuba, Brazil: results of the IAEA–UNESCO SGD project

Results of groundwater and seawater analyses for radioactive (³H, ²²²Rn, ²²³Ra, ²²⁴Ra, ²²⁶Ra, and ²²⁸Ra) and stable (D and ¹⁸O) isotopes are presented together with in situ spatial mapping and time series ²²²Rn measurements in seawater, direct seepage measurements using manual and automated seepage meters, pore water investigations using different tracers and piezometric techniques, and geoelectric surveys probing the coast. This study represents first time that such a new complex arsenal of radioactive and non-radioactive tracer techniques and geophysical methods have been used for simultaneous submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) investigations. Large fluctuations of SGD fluxes were observed at sites situated only a few meters apart (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 360 cm d⁻¹; the unit represents cm³/cm²/day), as well as during a few hours (from 0 cm d⁻¹ to 110 cm d⁻¹), strongly depending on the tidal fluctuations. The average SGD flux estimated from continuous ²²²Rn measurements is 17 ± 10 cm d⁻¹. Integrated coastal SGD flux estimated for the Ubatuba coast using radium isotopes is about 7 × 10³ m³ d⁻¹ per km of the coast. The isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) of submarine waters was characterised by significant variability and heavy isotope enrichment, indicating that the contribution of groundwater in submarine waters varied from a small percentage to 20%. However, this contribution with increasing offshore distance became negligible. Automated seepage meters and time series measurements of ²²²Rn activity concentration showed a negative correlation between the SGD rates and tidal stage. This is likely caused by sea level changes as tidal effects induce variations of hydraulic gradients. The geoelectric probing and piezometric measurements contributed to better understanding of the spatial distribution of different water masses present along the coast. The radium isotope data showed scattered distributions with offshore distance, which imply that seawater in a complex coast with many small bays and islands was influenced by local currents and groundwater/seawater mixing. This has also been confirmed by a relatively short residence time of 1–2 weeks for water within 25 km offshore, as obtained by short-lived radium isotopes. The irregular distribution of SGD seen at Ubatuba is a characteristic of fractured rock aquifers, fed by coastal groundwater and recirculated seawater with small admixtures of groundwater, which is of potential environmental concern and has implications on the management of freshwater resources in the region.     

DDT in fish from the Bulgarian region of the Black Sea

In spite of a worldwide reduction in the utilization of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), they are still a problem for the aquatic environment and human health. The Black Sea is still being polluted with persistent chemicals, including OCPs. Aquatic organisms (sprat, scad, bluefish, shad, belted bonito, goby, and black mussel) with different feeding behaviours were sampled on a seasonal basis from the Bulgarian region of the Black Sea, and the concentrations of 13 OCP residues were determined. Although many of the OCPs were not detected in the samples, in all samples 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDT) was present mainly in the form of its metabolites 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDD) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl) ethylene (DDE). Only about 12% of the total DDT was present as the parent compound pp-DDT, which suggests that it was not being used recently in the region. The total DDT concentrations were generally below 150 μg kg^-1 fresh weight, but higher levels—up to 354 μg kg^-1 fresh weight—were also measured for fish species with a high fat content. Between-species differences were observed, even when the concentrations were presented on a fat-level basis. DDT concentrations did not show any significant changes over the 2-yr sampling period. Fish sampled in the northern areas of the Bulgarian Black Sea coast seemed to contain higher DDT levels than those from the southern areas, suggesting a major (historical) influence of the Danube River. For permanent monitoring purposes, the utility of Black Sea gobies and scad should be considered.     

Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A simple and effective approach for detecting maternal cell contamination in molecular prenatal diagnosis

The presence of maternal cells in fetal samples constitutes a serious potential source for prenatal misdiagnosis. Here we present our approach for detecting maternal cell contamination (MCC) at prenatal diagnosis for eight monogenic disorders (autosomal recessive: β-thalassaemia, sickle-cell anaemia, cystic fibrosis, prelingual deafness; autosomal dominant: achondroplasia, Huntington disease, myotonic dystrophy, neurofibromatosis type I; X-linked: spinobulbar muscular atrophy). Our aim was to apply a simple and low-cost approach, which would easily and accurately provide information on the fetal tissue MCC status. MCC testing was applied to cases of recessive inheritance where the primary mutation screening of the fetus revealed the presence of the maternal mutation, to cases concerning dominant inheritance and to cases of multiple gestation. The potential presence of maternal cells was determined by the amplification of the 3′-HVR/APO B, D1S80, THO1 and VNTRI of vWf polymorphic loci, which have previously demonstrated high heterozygosity in Caucasians. Among 135 prenatal diagnoses, 44 finally needed to be tested for MCC (32.6%). MCC was detected in four cases, where DNA was isolated directly from chorionic villi samples (CVS), and in one case with DNA isolated directly from amniotic fluid (AF). In almost 90% of cases a simple test of one polymorphic locus provided sufficient information about MCC. The choice of the appropriate locus is therefore essential, while the simultaneous screening of both parents provides the means for distinguishing non-informative sites about MCC. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.