Linear least squares method for time series analysis with an application to a methane time series

A simple method of time series analysis, based upon linear least squares curve fitting, is developed. The method's advantages and disadvantages are discussed, and an example is presented using the Vostok Core methane record.     

Genetic amniocentesis following multifetal pregnancy reduction to twins: Assessing the risk

Fifty-three patients who elected to reduce their pregnancies to a twin gestation in our centre are known to have subsequently undergone genetic amniocentesis. Five of these patients lost their entire pregnancy following the genetic amniocentesis procedure. This is equivalent to a 9·4 per cent pregnancy loss rate for reduced twin gestations in comparison with an expected loss rate of 2 per cent for non-reduced twin gestations.     

BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

Using a process-based model to understand dynamics of Chinese agricultural and water technology development from 8000 bc to 1911 ad

Advancements in technology are inextricably bound to our society and the natural environment. However, how the development process of a technology system interacts with both remains unclear. We propose a process model to understand the complex dynamics among technology, society, and the environment via seven interactive elements: technologies, actors, receiving bodies, natural contexts, social contexts, temporal–spatial contexts, and outcomes. The model was applied to agricultural and water technology development in China from 8000 bc to 1911 ad. Our findings show that these elements did not play equally important roles in different periods of the development in ancient China, with social contexts most dominating during the earlier periods and both social and environmental concerns arising towards the later periods. The proposed model, by identifying the elements in the technology development that should be strengthened, can act as an analysis device to assist in reconfiguring a more sustainable socio-technological system.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01424-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Volatile nanoparticle formation and growth within a diluting diesel car exhaust

A major source of particle number emissions is road traffic. However, scientific knowledge concerning secondary particle formation and growth of ultrafine particles within vehicle exhaust plumes is still very limited. Volatile nanoparticle formation and subsequent growth conditions were analyzed here to gain a better understanding of "real-world" dilution conditions. Coupled computational fluid dynamics and aerosol microphysics models together with measured size distributions within the exhaust plume of a diesel car were used. The impact of soot particles on nucleation, acting as a condensational sink, and the possible role of low-volatile organic components in growth were assessed. A prescribed reduction of soot particle emissions by 2 orders of magnitude (to capture the effect of a diesel particle filter) resulted in concentrations of nucleation-mode particles within the exhaust plume that were approximately 1 order of magnitude larger. Simulations for simplified sulfuric acid-water vapor gas-oil containing nucleation-mode particles show that the largest particle growth is located in a recirculation zone in the wake of the car. Growth of particles within the vehicle exhaust plume up to detectable size depends crucially on the relationship between the mass rate of gaseous precursor emissions and rapid dilution. Chassis dynamometer measurements indicate that emissions of possible hydrocarbon precursors are significantly enhanced under high engine load conditions and high engine speed. On the basis of results obtained for a diesel passenger car, the contributions from light diesel vehicles to the observed abundance of measured nucleation-mode particles near busy roads might be attributable to the impact of two different time scales: (1) a short one within the plume, marked by sufficient precursor emissions and rapid dilution; and (2) a second and comparatively long time scale resulting from the mix of different precursor sources and the impact of atmospheric chemistry.     

Environmental monitoring of complex hydrocarbon mixtures in water and soil samples after solid phase microextraction using PVC/MWCNTs nanocomposite fiber

A novel nanocomposite based on incorporation of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) was prepared. Proposed nanocomposite was coated on stainless steel wire by deep coating. Composition of nanocomposite was optimized based on results of morphological studies using scanning electron microscopy. The best composition (83% MWCNTs:17% PVC) was applied as a solid phase microextraction fiber. Complex mixture of aromatic (BTEX) and aliphatic hydrocarbons (C₅–C₃₄) were selected as model analytes, and performance of proposed fiber in extraction of the studied compounds from water and soil samples was evaluated. Analytical merits of the method for water samples (LODs = 0.10–1.10 ng L⁻¹, r² = 0.9940–0.9994) and for soil samples (LODs = 0.10–0.77 ng kg⁻¹, r² = 0.9946–0.9994) showed excellent characteristics of it in ultra trace determination of petroleum type environmental pollutants. Finally, the method was used for determination of target analytes in river water, industrial effluent and soil samples.     

Distribution of pesticides and heavy metals in trophic chain

Determination of triazines herbicides (atrazine and simazine) by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in samples of trophic chain were worked out. Determination limits of 0.5 μg g⁻¹ for atrazine, 0.8 μg g⁻¹ for simazine with pesticides recovery of 70–77% in trophic chain samples were obtained. The content of simazine in soils was in range 1.72–57.89 μg g⁻¹, in grass 5–88 μg g⁻¹, in milk 2.32–15.29 μg g⁻¹, in cereals 10.98–387 μg g⁻¹, in eggs 30.14–59.48 μg g⁻¹, for fruits: 2.45–6.19 μg g⁻¹. The content of atrazine in soils was in range 0.69–19.59 μg g⁻¹, in grass 7.85–23.85 μg g⁻¹, in cereals 1.88–43.08 μg g⁻¹. Cadmium, lead and zinc were determined by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) in the same samples as atrazine and simazine. Determination limits for cadmium 5 × 10⁻³ μg g⁻¹, for lead 1 × 10⁻² μg g⁻¹, and for zinc 0.2 × 10⁻³ μg g⁻¹, were obtained. The content of cadmium in soil was in range 0.13–5.89 μg g⁻¹, in grass 114–627.72 × 10⁻³ μg g⁻¹, in milk 8.88–61.88 × 10⁻³ μg g⁻¹, in cereals 0.20–0.31 μg g⁻¹, in eggs 0.11–0.15 μg g⁻¹, in fruits 0.23–0.59 μg g⁻¹. The content of lead in soils was in range 0.57–151.50 μg g⁻¹, in grass 0.16–136.57 μg g⁻¹, in milk 1.16–3.74 μg g⁻¹, in cereals 1.05–5.47 μg g⁻¹, in eggs 5.79–55.87 μg g⁻¹, in fruits 21.00–87.36 μg g⁻¹. Zinc content in soil was in range 9.15–424.5 μg g⁻¹, in grass 35.20–55.87 μg g⁻¹, in milk 20.00–34.38 μg g⁻¹, in cereals 14.94–28.78 μg g⁻¹, in eggs 15.67–32.01 μg g⁻¹, in fruits 14.94–18.88 μg g⁻¹.

Described below extraction and mineralization methods for particular trophic chains allowed to determine of atrazine, simazine, cadmium, lead and zinc with good repeatability and precision. Emphasis was focused on liquid–liquid extraction and solid-phase extraction of atrazine and simazine from analysed materials, as well as, on monitoring the content of herbicides and metals in soil and along trophic chain. Higher concentration of pesticides in samples from west region of Poland in comparison to that of east region is likely related to common applying them in Western Europe in relation to East Europe. The content of metals strongly depends on samples origin (industry area, vicinity of motorways).     

Life cycle assessment of waste paper management: The importance of technology data and system boundaries in assessing recycling and incineration

The significance of technical data, as well as the significance of system boundary choices, when modelling the environmental impact from recycling and incineration of waste paper has been studied by a life cycle assessment focusing on global warming potentials. The consequence of choosing a specific set of data for the reprocessing technology, the virgin paper manufacturing technology and the incineration technology, as well as the importance of the recycling rate was studied. Furthermore, the system was expanded to include forestry and to include fossil fuel energy substitution from saved biomass, in order to study the importance of the system boundary choices. For recycling, the choice of virgin paper manufacturing data is most important, but the results show that also the impacts from the reprocessing technologies fluctuate greatly. For the overall results the choice of the technology data is of importance when comparing recycling including virgin paper substitution with incineration including energy substitution. Combining an environmentally high or low performing recycling technology with an environmentally high or low performing incineration technology can give quite different results. The modelling showed that recycling of paper, from a life cycle point of view, is environmentally equal or better than incineration with energy recovery only when the recycling technology is at a high environmental performance level. However, the modelling also showed that expanding the system to include substitution of fossil fuel energy by production of energy from the saved biomass associated with recycling will give a completely different result. In this case recycling is always more beneficial than incineration, thus increased recycling is desirable. Expanding the system to include forestry was shown to have a minor effect on the results. As assessments are often performed with a set choice of data and a set recycling rate, it is questionable how useful the results from this kind of LCA are for a policy maker. The high significance of the system boundary choices stresses the importance of scientific discussion on how to best address system analysis of recycling, for paper and other recyclable materials.