A statistical evaluation of non-ergodic variogram estimators

Geostatistics is a set of statistical techniques that is increasingly used to characterize spatial dependence in spatially referenced ecological data. A common feature of geostatistics is predicting values at unsampled locations from nearby samples using the kriging algorithm. Modeling spatial dependence in sampled data is necessary before kriging and is usually accomplished with the variogram and its traditional estimator. Other types of estimators, known as non-ergodic estimators, have been used in ecological applications. Non-ergodic estimators were originally suggested as a method of choice when sampled data are preferentially located and exhibit a skewed frequency distribution. Preferentially located samples can occur, for example, when areas with high values are sampled more intensely than other areas. In earlier studies the visual appearance of variograms from traditional and non-ergodic estimators were compared. Here we evaluate the estimators' relative performance in prediction. We also show algebraically that a non-ergodic version of the variogram is equivalent to the traditional variogram estimator. Simulations, designed to investigate the effects of data skewness and preferential sampling on variogram estimation and kriging, showed the traditional variogram estimator outperforms the non-ergodic estimators under these conditions. We also analyzed data on carabid beetle abundance, which exhibited large-scale spatial variability (trend) and a skewed frequency distribution. Detrending data followed by robust estimation of the residual variogram is demonstrated to be a successful alternative to the non-ergodic approach.     

环境中的药物——LC-MS/MS分析地表水和地下水

成百上千的活性物质正被用于人药和兽药处方中.由于药物的广泛应用,它们的残留物可通过多种途径进入环境.虽然主要通过尿和粪便的排泄,但是药品生产中的排放也应被考虑.当抗生素用于水产业,就会产生更直接的影响.污水处理设备不能完全除去药物,因此药物会出现在地表和地下水样品中.近年来,人们对环境中药物的兴趣正在增加,需要建立一种快速、灵敏、有选择性的方法来分析水样.     

Avian predators are less abundant during periodical cicada emergences, but why?

Despite a substantial resource pulse, numerous avian insectivores known to depredate periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) are detected less commonly during emergence years than in either the previous or following years. We used data on periodical cicada calls collected by volunteers conducting North American Breeding Bird Surveys within the range of cicada Brood X to test three hypotheses for this observation: lower detection rates could be caused by bird calls being obscured by cicada calls ("detectability" hypothesis), by birds avoiding areas with cicadas ("repel" hypothesis), or because bird abundances are generally lower during emergence years for some reason unrelated to the current emergence event ("true decline" hypothesis). We tested these hypotheses by comparing bird detections at stations coincident with calling cicadas vs. those without calling cicadas in the year prior to and during cicada emergences. At four distinct levels (stop, route, range, and season), parallel declines of birds in groups exposed and not exposed to cicada calls supported the true decline hypothesis. We discuss several potential mechanisms for this pattern, including the possibility that it is a consequence of the ecological and evolutionary interactions between predators of this extraordinary group of insects.     

The influence of O3, NO2 and SO2 on growth of Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica in the Carpathian Mountains

At 17 long-term pollution monitoring sites throughout the Carpathian Mountains, tree growth patterns and variation in growth rate were examined to determine relationship of tree growth to specific pollutants. Canopy dominant Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica were selected at each site. Basal area increment (BAI) values were calculated from raw ring widths and used as an estimate of tree growth. Across all sites, BAI chronologies were highly variable, therefore local conditions and forest structure accounted for considerable variation. Several significant relationships, however, implicated a role of pollutants on tree growth. Average levels (1997-1999) of NO(2) and SO(2) were inversely related to BAI means (1989-1999). Although average O(3) alone was not related to growth, the maximum O(3) value reported at the sites was negatively correlated with overall growth. A variable representing the combined effect of O(3), NO(2) and SO(2) was negatively correlated with both P. abies and F. sylvatica growth. Pollution data were used to categorize all sites into 'high' or 'low' pollution sites. Difference chronologies based on these categories indicated trends of decline in the 'high' pollution sites relative to 'low' pollution site. In the more heavily polluted sites, the BAI of Fagus sylvatica has declined approximately 50% and Picea abies has declined 20% over the past 45 years.     

Cross-sectional biomonitoring study of pesticide exposures in Queensland,Australia, using pooled urine samples

A range of pesticides are available in Australia for use in agricultural and domestic settings to control pests, including organophosphate and pyrethroid insecticides, herbicides, and insect repellents, such as N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET). The aim of this study was to provide a cost-effective preliminary assessment of background exposure to a range of pesticides among a convenience sample of Australian residents. De-identified urine specimens stratified by age and sex were obtained from a community-based pathology laboratory and pooled (n = 24 pools of 100 specimens). Concentrations of urinary pesticide biomarkers were quantified using solid-phase extraction coupled with isotope dilution high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Geometric mean biomarker concentrations ranged from <0.1 to 36.8 ng/mL for organophosphate insecticides, <0.1 to 5.5 ng/mL for pyrethroid insecticides, and <0.1 to 8.51 ng/mL for all other biomarkers with the exception of the DEET metabolite 3-diethylcarbamoyl benzoic acid (4.23 to 850 ng/mL). We observed no association between age and concentration for most biomarkers measured but noted a “U-shaped” trend for five organophosphate metabolites, with the highest concentrations observed in the youngest and oldest age strata, perhaps related to age-specific differences in behavior or physiology. The fact that concentrations of specific and non-specific metabolites of the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos were higher than reported in USA and Canada may relate to differences in registered applications among countries. Additional biomonitoring programs of the general population and focusing on vulnerable populations would improve the exposure assessment and the monitoring of temporal exposure trends as usage patterns of pesticide products in Australia change over time.     

The influence of satellite populations of emerald ash borer on projected economic costs in U.S. communities, 2010-2020

The invasion spread of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is characterized by the formation of satellite populations that expand and coalesce with the continuously invading population front. As of January 2010, satellite infestations have been detected in 13 states and two Canadian provinces. Understanding how newly established satellite populations may affect economic costs can help program managers to justify and design prevention and control strategies. We estimate the economic costs caused by EAB for the 10-yr period from 2010 to 2020 for scenarios of fewer EAB satellite populations than those found from 2005 to 2010 and slower expansion of satellite populations found in 2009. We measure the projected discounted cost of treatment, removal, and replacement of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) growing in managed landscapes in U.S. communities. Estimated costs for the base scenario with the full complement of satellites in 2005-2010 and no program to mitigate spread is $12.5 billion. Fewer EAB satellites from 2005 to 2010 delay economic costs of $1.0 to 7.4 billion. Slower expansion of 2009 satellite populations delays economic costs of $0.1 to 0.7 billion. Satellite populations that are both distant from the core EAB infestation and close to large urban areas caused more economic costs in our simulations than did other satellites. Our estimates of delayed economic costs suggest that spending on activities that prevent establishment of new satellite EAB populations or slow expansion of existing populations can be cost-effective and that continued research on the cost and effectiveness of prevention and control activities is warranted.