Anthropogenic 236U at Rocky Flats,Ashtabula river harbor,and Mersey estuary: three case studies by sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

236U (t(1/2)=2.3 x 10(7) y) is formed as a result of thermal neutron capture by (235)U. In naturally occurring U ores, where a high neutron flux is present from spontaneous fission of (238)U, (236)U/(238)U atom ratios are approximately 10(-4) ppm. In the natural Earth's crust, unaffected by nuclear fallout, these ratios are expected to be on the order of 10(-8) ppm. Reactor-irradiated U, however, exhibits high (236)U/(238)U atom ratios approaching 10(4) ppm. As a result, the presence of very small quantities of reactor-irradiated U will significantly enhance the "background" (236)U/(238)U atom ratio. When sufficiently elevated (236)U/(238)U ratios are present, the determination of (236)U/(238)U by rapid inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometric (ICPMS) methods is attractive. We have used sector ICPMS at medium resolving power (R=3440) to measure (236)U/(238)U atom ratios with a determination limit of 0.2 ppm. The limiting factors in the measurement are the (235)U(1)H(+) isobar and background signal at m/z 236 arising from the (238)U(+) peak tail. Based upon the analysis of replicates and considerations of possible systematic errors, uncertainties of +/-5% are found for (236)U/(238)U atom ratios of 1-100 ppm. This procedure has been demonstrated in studies of anthropogenic (236)U in the environment at three locations: (a) offsite soils from the vicinity of the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology site (Golden, Colorado, USA); (b) sediments from the Ashtabula River (Ohio, USA); and (c) sediments from the Mersey estuary (Liverpool, UK). In each of these three locations, definite plumes of elevated (236)U/(238)U are identified and characterized. Maximum (236)U/(238)U atom ratios observed in RFETS-vicinity soils, the Ashtabula River, and the Mersey Estuary are 2.8, 140, and 4.4 ppm, respectively.     

EFFLUENT FEES,AN ALTERNATIVE SYSTEM FOR ACHIEVING WATER QUALITY: A CASE STUDY1

This paper reports the findings of a case study of the relative costs of a uniform standards system and an effluent fee system of water quality control. A 30-mile stretch of the Black Warrior River in Alabama is considered. The analysis demonstrates that the dischargers could reduce total pollution abatement costs by 33 percent under the suggested effluent fee system.     

Generalized site occupancy models allowing for false positive and false negative errors

Site occupancy models have been developed that allow for imperfect species detection or "false negative" observations. Such models have become widely adopted in surveys of many taxa. The most fundamental assumption underlying these models is that "false positive" errors are not possible. That is, one cannot detect a species where it does not occur. However, such errors are possible in many sampling situations for a number of reasons, and even low false positive error rates can induce extreme bias in estimates of site occupancy when they are not accounted for. In this paper, we develop a model for site occupancy that allows for both false negative and false positive error rates. This model can be represented as a two-component finite mixture model and can be easily fitted using freely available software. We provide an analysis of avian survey data using the proposed model and present results of a brief simulation study evaluating the performance of the maximum-likelihood estimator and the naive estimator in the presence of false positive errors.     

Calculating ecological carrying capacity of shellfish aquaculture using mass-balance modeling: Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island

Increasing growth in the aquaculture industry demands ecosystem-based techniques for management if that growth is to be ecologically sustainable and promote equity among users of the ecosystems in which it occurs. Models of carrying capacity can be used to responsibly limit the growth of aquaculture in increasingly crowded coastal areas. Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA is one such crowded coastal region experiencing a rapid increase in bivalve aquaculture. An ecosystem mass-balance model was used to calculate the ecological carrying capacity of bivalve aquaculture. Cultured oyster biomass is currently at 0.47 t km⁻² and could be increased 625 times without exceeding the ecological carrying capacity of 297 t km⁻². This translates to approximately 38,950 t of harvested cultured oysters annually which is 4 times the total estimated annual harvest of finfish. This potential for growth is due to the high primary productivity and large energy throughput to detritus of this ecosystem. Shellfish aquaculture has potential for continued growth and is unlikely to become food limited due, in part, to the large detritus pool.     

Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.     

PCB-blood levels in teachers, working in PCB-contaminated schools

In order to get more information about potential health hazards due to indoor air PCBs the present study investigated the PCB indoor concentration in schools as well as the blood levels of 6 PCB-indicator congeners in teachers from these schools. 151 teachers (78 male and 73 female; mean age 48 years) from 3 contaminated and 2 control schools participated in the study. Maximal indoor air values for total PCBs (6 PCB-indicator congeners times 5) in schools ranged from 1587 to 10655 ng/m3. Blood analyses indicated an increase in mean PCB 28 level from 0.036 (control group) to 0.098 microg/l in teachers from a school with heavy contamination of low chlorinated PCB. But there was no significant increase of PCB 138, 153 and 180 in blood above the normal background concentrations in any of the contaminated schools (mean values of all groups: PCB 138 = 0.66, 153 = 0.95, 180 = 0.70 microg/l blood). The results of blood analyses and additional toxicokinetic calculations suggested that inhalative PCB-uptake in the most contaminated schools caused a minor increase above mean background-PCB concentrations in blood. In conclusion, despite high PCB indoor air levels in schools, there was only a moderate increase in blood concentrations of teachers, mainly due to congeners with low chlorination (PCB 28 to PCB 101).     

Modeling misidentification errors that result from use of genetic tags in capture–recapture studies

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) such as DNA fingerprints (genetic tags) are used to identify individual animals. For example, when misidentification leads to multiple identities being assigned to an animal, traditional estimators tend to overestimate population size. Accounting for misidentification in capture–recapture models requires detailed understanding of the mechanism. Using genetic tags as an example, we outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies when individual identification is based on natural tags that are consistent over time (non-evolving natural tags). We first assume a single sample is obtained per animal for each capture event, and then generalize to the case where multiple samples (such as hair or scat samples) are collected per animal per capture occasion. We introduce methods for estimating population size and, using a simulation study, we show that our new estimators perform well for cases with moderately high capture probabilities or high misidentification rates. In contrast, conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored.     

Economic Impacts of Changes in Fish Population Dynamics: The Role of the Fishermen’s Harvesting Strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a coupled stock size–hydrography-based fishing strategy, which attempts to maximize returns from fishing over a given number of fishing periods. Results show that if the fishing strategy is based on a short optimization period of only two fishing periods, changes in population dynamics have a direct influence on the returns from fishing due to the strong pressure on the stocks applied by the fisheries. If the strategy is based on a longer optimization period, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth, which improves the economic performance of the fisheries. However, in that case, the relationship between population dynamics and fishing activities becomes less clear, as even a reduction of the carrying capacities of the two species allows for an increase in the amount of fish landed without causing a stock collapse due to an increased efficiency of fleet utilization. The simulations indicate that management considerations and the time horizon of the fishing strategy dominate the influence of altered population dynamics on the development of the stocks considered in the model.     

A simulation model to explore the response of the Gulf of Maine food web to large-scale environmental and ecological changes

A dynamic simulation model was constructed using outputs from a balanced Gulf of Maine (GOM) energy budget model as the initial parameter set. The model was structured to provide a recipient control set of dynamics, largely based off of flows to and from different biological groups. The model was used to produce Monte Carlo simulations that were compared (percent change in biomass) with basecase simulations for a variety of scenarios. Changes in primary production, large increases in pelagic and demersal fish biomass, increases in fishing mortality, and large increases in top predators such as baleen whales and pinnepids were simulated. These scenarios roughly simulated the potential impacts of climate change, altered fishing pressure, additional protected species mitigations, and combinations thereof. Results suggest that the GOM system is primarily influenced by bottom-up processes involving phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacterial biomass. Pelagic and demersal fish were important in determining trends in some of the scenarios. Marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds have a minor role in the GOM system in terms of biomass flows among the ecosystem components. The system is resilient to large-scale change due, in part to many predator–prey linkages. However, major alterations could occur from sustained climate change, high fishing rates, and by combinations of these types of external forcing mechanisms.     

Valuation of Ecological Resources and Functions

/ Ecological resources are natural resources that provide certain necessary but overlooked system maintenance functions within ecosystems. Environmental economics is in search of an appropriate analysis framework to determine economic values of such resources. This paper presents a framework that estimates and compiles the components of value for a natural ecosystem. The framework begins with the ecological processes involved, which provide functions within the ecosystem and services valued by humans. We discuss the additive or competive nature of these values, and estimate these values through conventional and unconventional techniques. We apply the framework to ecological resources in a shrub-steppe dryland habitat being displaced by development. We first determine which functions and services are mutually exclusive (e.g., farming vs soil stabilization) and which are complementary or products of joint production (e.g., soil stabilization and maintenance of species). We then apply benefit transfer principles with contingent valuation methodology (CVM), travel cost methodology (TCM), and hedonic damage pricing (HDP). Finally, we derive upper-limit values for more difficult-to-value functions through the use of human analogs, which we argue are the most appropriate method of valuation under some circumstances. The highest values of natural shrub-steppe habitat appear to be derived from soil stabilization.KEY WORDS: Natural resource economics; Ecological economics; Ecological resources; Shrub-steppe; Environmental valuation; Cost; Benefit; Value