Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Radon-222 signatures of natural ventilation regimes in an underground quarry

Radon-222 activity concentration has been monitored since 1999 in an underground limestone quarry located in Vincennes, near Paris, France. It is homogeneous in summer, with an average value of 1700 Bq m(-3), and varies from 730 to 1450 Bq m(-3) in winter, indicating natural ventilation with a rate ranging from 0.5 to 2.4 x 10(-6) s(-1) (0.04-0.22 day(-1)). This hypothesis is supported by measurements in the vertical access pit where, in winter, a turbulent air current produces a stable radon profile, smoothly decreasing from 700 Bq m(-3) at 20 m depth to 300 Bq m(-3) at surface. In summer, a thermal stratification is maintained in the pit, but the radon-222 concentration jumps repeatedly between 100 and 2000 Bq m(-3). These jumps are due to atmospheric pressure pumping, which induces ventilation in the quarry at a rate of about 0.1 x 10(-6) s(-1) (0.009 day(-1)). Radon-222 monitoring thus provides a dynamical characterisation of ventilation regimes, which is important for the assessment of the long-term evolution of underground systems.     

Population growth, management and environmental degradation in China

Environmental problems in China can be divided into two large classes: pollution and destruction of natural environment. Environmental degradation is particularly serious in areas with rapid population growth. In this paper, some of China's major environmental problems, particularly those concerned with land, forests, and continental waters are introduced in order to see how population growth and management have affected these resources over the past few decades. It is also explained how the Chinese plan to cope and eventually solve these problems.     

Analysis of chromium and copper by cathodic stripping voltammetry with mixed ligands

Cathodic adsorptive stripping voltammetry is one of the most sensitive analytical methods for ultratrace analysis. The detection limit is usually lower than 10⁻⁹ mol/L. Most adsorptive stripping procedures have been focused on the one ligand/one analyte approach. In order to reduce analysis time and sample volume, the possibility of simultaneously determining several metals by cathodic stripping voltammetry using a mixture of ligands was explored, e.g., by Colombo and van den Berg (1997). Here, we describe a new procedure for quantifying chromium and copper using 2,2′-bipyridine and 8-hydroxyquinoline (oxine). The effect of various operational parameters such as buffer type, ligand concentration, potential and time collection were assessed and optimized. Possible interferences by trace metals and organic matter were also investigated. Applicability for fresh water is illustrated. Electronic Publication     

Bioremediation of Dinitrotoluene in Aged Clay and Sandy Soils Using Pseudomonas Organisms,Spizizen Nutrient Medium and Prairie Silt Loam

This article describes the utility of Spizizen medium in effecting the release of 2,4 dinitrotoluene (DNT) from plasticized propellant in aged clay soil and of added Pseudomonas organisms in enhancing the rate of degradation of DNT in clay and sandy soils. DNT is an environmental problem because of its toxicity to mammals. It is proposed that the citrate in Spizizen medium chelates metals that form the aggregates of humin in aged clay soils, thereby releasing propellant components. Lack of awareness of DNT mobilization by citrate or other polyanions may lead to a potential underestimation of the 2,4 DNT present in aged contaminated soil and a potential increased release of DNT following exposure to solvents containing citrate or other polyanions. DNT in contaminated sandy soils was rapidly degraded when Pseudomonas and Spizizen medium were added (85% degraded in 20 days). Pseudomonas isolated/Torn soils at the Badger Plant have particular utility for the in situ degradation of 2,4 DNT in clay and sandy soils because they metabolize Spizizen medium, thrive in diverse climates, and have been selected for their ability to grow in soils contaminated with DNT. Mixture of either the contaminated clay soil or the contaminated sandy soil with uncontaminated prairie silt loam (20:80 ratio) facilitated management of the treatment process. This observation is important because of the widespread distribution, and hence low cost, of this soil type in the central United States.     

Experimental evaluation of emission factors of cement kilns burning hazardous wastes

Cement industry is an interesting way to eliminate combustible wastes. Thermal valorization is maximal, conditions of combustion are especially favorable to the destruction and the trapping of pollutants, and there are neither ultimate residues (slag) nor aqueous rejects. Moreover the properties of the cement are not modified. Nevertheless the increased use of substitution fuel may lead to deal with unusual amounts of heavy metals. Tests were realized on several rotary cement kilns with varying substitution ratios of fossil fuels by wastes. Mass balances were fitted over the whole plant, and emission factors were explained.     

Sulphate, Nitrogen and Base Cation Budgets at 21 Forested Catchments in Canada, the United States and Europe

To assess the concern over declining base cation levels in forest soils caused by acid deposition, input-output budgets (1990s average) for sulphate (SO₄), inorganic nitrogen (NO₃-N; NH₄-N), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were synthesised for 21 forested catchments from 17 regions in Canada, the United States and Europe. Trend analysis was conducted on monthly ion concentrations in deposition and runoff when more than 9 years of data were available (14 regions, 17 sites). Annual average SO₄ deposition during the 1990s ranged between 7.3 and 28.4 kg ha⁻¹ per year, and inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition was between 2.8 and 13.8 kg ha⁻¹ per year, of which 41–67% was nitrate (NO₃-N). Over the period of record, SO₄ concentration in deposition decreased in 13/14 (13 out of 14 total) regions and SO₄ in runoff decreased at 14/17 catchments. In contrast, NO₃-N concentrations in deposition decreased in only 1/14 regions, while NH₄-N concentration patterns varied; increasing at 3/14 regions and decreasing at 2/14 regions. Nitrate concentrations in runoff decreased at 4/17 catchments and increased at only 1 site, whereas runoff levels of NH₄-N increased at 5/17 catchments. Decreasing trends in deposition were also recorded for Ca, Mg, and K at many of the catchments and on an equivalent basis, accounted for up to 131% (median 22%) of the decrease in acid anion deposition. Base cation concentrations in streams generally declined over time, with significant decreases in Ca, Mg and K occurring at 8, 9 and 7 of 17 sites respectively, which accounted for up to 133% (median 48%) of the decrease in acid anion concentration. Sulphate export exceeded input at 18/21 catchments, likely due to dry deposition and/or internal sources. The majority of N in deposition (31–100%; median 94%) was retained in the catchments, although there was a tendency for greater NO₃-N leaching at sites receiving higher (<7 kg ha^-1 per year) bulk inorganic N deposition. Mass balance calculations show that export of Ca and Mg in runoff exceeds input at all 21 catchments, but K export only exceeds input at 16/21 sites. Estimates of base cation weathering were available for 18 sites. When included in the mass balance calculation, Ca, Mg and K exports exceeded inputs at 14, 10 and 2 sites respectively. Annual Ca and Mg losses represent appreciable proportions of the current exchangeable soil Ca and Mg pools, although losses at some of the sites likely occur from weathering reactions beneath the rooting zone and there is considerable uncertainty associated with mineral weathering estimates. Critical loads for sulphur (S) and N, using a critical base cation to aluminium ratio of 10 in soil solution, are currently exceeded at 7 of the 18 sites with base cation weathering estimates. Despite reductions in SO₄ and H⁺ deposition, mass balance estimates indicate that acid deposition continues to acidify soils in many regions with losses of Ca and Mg of primary concern. The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

Dispersal per recruit: an efficient method for assessing sustainability in marine reserve networks.

Marine reserves are an increasingly important tool for the management of marine ecosystems around the world. However, the effects of proposed marine reserve configurations on sustainability and yield of populations are typically not estimated because of the computational intensity of direct simulation and uncertainty in larval dispersal and density-dependent recruitment. Here we develop a method for efficiently assessing a marine reserve configuration for persistence and yield of a population with sedentary adults and dispersing larvae. The method extends the familiar sustainability criteria of individual replacement for single populations based on eggs-per-recruit (EPR) to spatially distributed populations with sedentary adults, a dispersing larval phase, and limited carrying capacity in the settlement-recruit relationship. We refer to this approach as dispersal-per-recruit (DPR). In some cases, a single DPR calculation, based on the assumption that post-settlement habitat is saturated (i.e., at maximum recruitment), is sufficient to determine population persistence, while in other cases further iterative calculations are required. These additional calculations reach an equilibrium more rapidly than a full simulation of age- or size-structured populations. From the DPR result, fishery yield can be computed from yield-per-recruit (YPR) at each point. We assess the utility of DPR calculations by applying them to single reserves, uniformly distributed systems of reserves, and randomly sized and spaced systems of reserves on a linear coastline. We find that for low levels of EPR in fished areas (e.g., 10% or less of the natural, unfished EPR when post-settlement habitats are saturated by 35% of natural settlement), a single DPR calculation is sufficient to determine persistence of the population. We also show that, in uniform systems of reserves with finite reserve size, maximal fisheries yield occurs when the density of reserves is such that all post-settlement habitat is nearly saturated with settlers. Finally, we demonstrate the application of this approach to a realistic proposed marine reserve configuration.     

Availability of 99Tc in undisturbed soil cores

Models for safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories need accurate values of the soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides. In oxidizing environments, (99)Tc is expected to occur as pertechnetate ((99)TcO(4)(-)). Due to its high mobility, leaching of this element in the field might be important, potentially affecting the reliability of estimated transfer parameters of (99)Tc as measured in closed experimental systems such as hydroponics or pot experiments. The aim of this experiment was to measure the leaching of (99)Tc in undisturbed irrigated soil cores under cultivation as well as plant uptake and to study the possible competition between the two transfer pathways. Undisturbed soil cores (50 x 50 cm) were sampled from a Rendzic Leptosol (R), a colluvial Fluvic Cambisol (F) and a Dystric Cambisol (D) using PVC tubes (three cores sampled per soil type). Each core was equipped with a leachate collector at the bottom, allowing the monitoring of (99)Tc leaching through the cores. Cores were placed in a greenhouse and maize (Zea mays L., cv. DEA, Pioneer) was sown. After 135 d, maize was harvested and radioactivity determined in both plant and water samples. Results showed that during the growing period, leaching of (99)Tc was limited, due to the high evapotranspiration rate of maize. After harvest, leaching of (99)Tc went on because of the absence of evapotranspiration. Effective uptake (EU) of (99)Tc in leaves and grains was calculated. EU reached 70% of the input in the leaves and was not significantly different among soils. These results confirmed those obtained from pot experiments, even though leaching was allowed to occur in close-to-reality hydraulical conditions. As a consequence, it was concluded that pot experiments are an adequate surrogate for more complex "close-to-reality" experimental systems for measuring transfer factors.