Impact of climate change on vulnerability of forests and ecosystem service supply in Western Rhodopes Mountains

The vulnerability of forest ecosystem services to climate change is expected to depend on landscape characteristic and management history, but may also be influenced by the proximity to the southern range limit of constituent tree species. In the Western Rhodopes in South Bulgaria, Norway spruce is an important commercial species, but is approaching its current southern limit. Using climate sensitive forest models, we projected the impact of climate change on timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity and soil retention in two representative landscapes in the Western Rhodopes; a lower elevation landscape (1000–1450 m a.s.l) dominated by mixed species forests, and a higher elevation landscape (1550–2100 m a.s.l.) currently dominated by spruce. In both landscapes climate change is projected to induce a shift in forest composition, with drought-sensitive species, such as Norway spruce, being replaced by more drought-tolerant species such as Scots pine and black pine at lower elevations. In the higher elevation landscape a reduction in spruce growth is projected, particularly under the more severe climate change scenarios. Under most climate scenarios a reduction in growing stock is projected to occur, but under some scenarios a moderate increase in higher elevation stands (>1500 m a.s.l.) is expected. Climate change is projected to negatively influence carbon storage potential across landscapes with the magnitude depending on the severity of the climate change scenario. The impact of climate change on forest diversity and habitat availability is projected to differ considerably between the two landscapes, with diversity and habitat quality generally increasing at higher elevations, and being reduced at lower elevations. Our results suggest that if currently management practices are maintained the sensitivity of forests and forest ecosystem services in the Western Rhodopes to climate change will differ between low and higher elevation sites and will depend strongly on current forest composition.     

Perceptual deformation induced by visual motion

The perceived position of a moving object can be misleading because the object has advanced while its previous retinal image has been transmitted through the visual stream, leading to a mismatch between actual location and its neural representation. It has been suggested that the human visual system compensates for neural processing delays to retrieve instantaneous position. However, such a mechanism would require a precise measure of the actual delay in order to provide a reliable position estimate. A novel illusory deformation of moving contours demonstrates that humans misjudge the spatial relationship between parts of coherently moving targets, and therefore do not perfectly account for neural delays. The size of this deformation increases with growing speed. In some subjects this illusion can be reversed by varying the luminance of individual dots; a manipulation that affects the neural delays. Our experiments agree with other evidence that the capacity of the visual system to compensate for processing delays is limited.