The Fallacies of Concurrent Climate Policy Efforts

Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and expresses distrust about claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent, misguided and unduly costly, and that they have so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons, but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred, skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy plans currently on the table.     

Association of size-resolved airborne particles with foot traffic inside a carpeted hallway

The effect of foot traffic on indoor particle resuspension was evaluated by associating non-prescribed foot traffic with simultaneous size-resolved airborne particulate matter (PM) concentrations in a northern California hospital. Foot traffic and PM were measured every 15 min in a carpeted hallway over two 27-h periods. The PM concentration in the hallway was modeled based on the foot traffic intensity, including the previous PM concentration via an autocorrelation regression method based on the well-mixed box model. All 5 size ranges of PM, ranging from 0.75–1 μm to 5–7.5 μm, were highly correlated with foot traffic measurements for both monitoring periods (p < 0.001, R² = 0.87–0.90). However, correlations during daytime hours were less significant than nighttime. Coefficients found via this autoregressive analysis can be interpreted to reveal (i) time-independent contributions of walking activities on PM levels for a specific location; and (ii) size-specific characteristics of the resuspended PM.     

Serum PCBs and organochlorine pesticides in Slovakia: age, gender, and residence as determinants of organochlorine concentrations

We measured organochlorine concentrations of 15 polychlorinated biphenyl congeners and six organochlorine pesticides (PCB28, 52, 101, 123(+149), 118, 114, 153, 105, 138(+163), 167, 156(+171), 157, 180, 170, 189, alpha-, beta-, gamma-HCH, HCB, p,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDE) in 2047 subjects from contaminated and background areas of eastern Slovakia. Data were collected in 2001 and analyzed by high-resolution gas chromatography with electron capture detection in 2002-2003. Elevated levels persist in subjects from Michalovce district, site of former production facility, after almost 20-years since the end of the PCB manufacturing. Sum of 15 PCB congeners was 3105 ng/g of lipid in the Michalovce district versus 871 ng/g of lipid for subjects from the background districts of Svidnik and Stropkov. Relatively high concentration in children from the Michalovce district, sum PCB = 766 ng/g of lipid versus 372 ng/g of lipid in children from background area suggest ongoing exposure from environmental reservoirs and contaminated food. Consistent differences between genders in both contaminated and background areas are reported here. Levels in males are about 20% higher in both districts. Levels of organochlorine pesticides, particularly of DDT metabolite DDE and hexachlorobenzene are also elevated in the Michalovce district, reflecting intensive use of pesticides in agriculture in the past. About 30% decrease in serum organochlorine levels was observed in comparison with our earlier samples collected in 1998. These results suggest that contamination with PCBs still remains a source of relatively high environmental exposure for subjects in the Michalovce district.     

An investigation of methods for enriching trophoblast from maternal blood

Trophoblast deportation is known to occur in normal human pregnancy, but it is not yet clear whether these cells routinely enter the maternal peripheral circulation and are available as a source of fetal DNA for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of genetic disorders. To resolve this issue requires an efficient method of enriching trophoblast from maternal blood combined with a means to confirm its identity. Five different techniques were tested on ten retroplacental blood samples to determine the most sensitive and operator-efficient method. Lysis of red cells alone gave the best recovery of trophoblast but had to be discounted, together with Ficoll density gradient centrifugation, due to the very low purity and the excessive time required. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) of pre-enriched trophoblast resulted in the lowest recovery rate (8 per cent) despite a 3250-fold enrichment and a very high purity. Immunomagnetic beads (Dynabeads) coated with anti-CD 16 antibody proved to be the best method for the subsequent immunocytochemical characterization of deported trophoblast. However, IO beads coated with anti-CD45 antibody may be more useful for isolating trophoblast for prenatal diagnosis due to the high purity, enrichment (32-fold), and recovery rate (78 per cent) obtained with this method.     

The use of anthracene as a model compound in a comparative study of hydrous pyrolysis methods for industrial waste remediation

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are very stable compounds and tend to bioaccumulate in the environment due to their high degree of conjugation and aromaticity. Hydrous pyrolysis is explored as a technique for the treatment of industrial water containing PAH, using anthracene as a model compound. The reactivity of anthracene under a range of temperatures and durations are studied in this paper. Aliquots of 1.0-10.0 mg of anthracene in a range of 1.0-5.0 mL of H₂O are subjected to hydrous pyrolysis under varied conditions of temperature, reagents and duration. The conditions include oxidising systems comprising distilled water, hydrogen peroxide and Nafion-SiO₂ solid catalyst in water; and reducing systems of formic acid and formic acid/Nafion-SiO₂/Pd-C catalysts to assess a range of redox reaction conditions. Oxygen in air played a role in some of the reaction conditions. Pyrolysed products were identified and quantified by the use of Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). The major products were anthrone, anthraquinone, xanthone from oxidation; and multiple hydro-anthracene derivatives from reductive hydogenation. The nature of reaction conditions influenced the extent of anthracene degradation. The products formed are more reactive (less stable) as compared to anthracene the starting material and will therefore be less persistent in the environment.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?

The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a “supercycle” caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand.