Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Locating ‘power’ in wind power planning processes: the (not so) influential role of local objectors

There have been conflicting accounts of the role and influence of local opposition within planning application outcomes for wind power developments. There is an expanding literature that considers public responses to proposed renewable energy developments and much of this suggests that public opposition is a key factor in the slow growth in renewable energy capacity. However, this paper will show that local opposition groups' power over such planning processes is very limited, and in fact extends only so far as delaying an outcome. Through a thematic content analysis of objection letters to one particular proposed wind power development, the key issues raised in connection with the development will be highlighted. Subsequently, these issues will be compared with those discussed in the official report of the planning appeals process, and it will be shown that the concerns of local objectors had little influence over the eventual verdict.     

Relationships Between Toxicity and Concentrations of Chemical Contaminants in Sediments from Sydney Harbour, Australia, and Vicinity

Correlation analyses between measures of toxicity and concentrations of chemical contaminants were conducted for 103 surficial sediments from Sydney Harbour, Australia, and vicinity. Toxicity tests consisted of amphipod survival and reburial tests of whole sediments (Corophium colo), sea urchin fertilisation and larval development tests of pore waters (Heliocidaris tuberculata) and microbial bioluminescence (Microtox) tests of solvent extracts and pore waters. Toxicity in most tests correlated with concentrations of metallic contaminants, in particular, zinc, lead and copper. Organic contaminants did not correlate as significantly with toxicity. However, Heliocidaris tuberculata showed relationships with organochlorine compounds in samples with low to moderate metals contamination. Toxicity in the Microtox solvent extract test appeared to be primarily influenced by the presence of sulfur. This study has no precedent in Australia and the results support the validity of using local indigenous species in toxicity tests of field-collected sediments. This toxicity/chemistry dataset may be used in evaluations of sediment quality guidelines recently introduced to Australia.     

Metallic and organic contaminants in sediments of Sydney Harbour, Australia and vicinity-- a chemical dataset for evaluating sediment quality guidelines

An internally consistent dataset comprising 103 surficial estuarine sediment samples were collected from Sydney Harbour, Australia and locations south of Sydney. This paper describes the chemical characteristics of the dataset and evaluates its suitability for use in evaluating biological effects-based sediment quality guidelines (SQGs). The sediments contained mixtures of chemicals, the most prevalent chemical classes being metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, whereas sediments from coastal lakes/estuaries south of Sydney had low concentrations of contaminants. Maximum concentrations of the prevalent contaminants zinc, lead, copper and pyrene were 11,300, 1,420, 1,060 mg kg(-1) and 23,300 microg kg(-1), respectively. For the majority of samples, concentrations of individual chemicals exceeded most effects-based SQGs that have been adopted for use in Australia, implying occasional or frequent adverse biological effects are expected. Comparing mixtures of contaminants to ranges in numbers of SQGs exceeded and mean SQG quotients showed that most samples (57% to 68%) had contamination characteristics associated with moderate probabilities (30% to 52%) of acute toxicity, based on North American data. A smaller proportion of samples (15% to 17%) had contamination characteristics associated with high probabilities (74% to 85%) of toxicity. The wide range of chemicals and concentrations, associated with low, medium and high probabilities of toxicity, indicated that the dataset was suitable for future use in evaluating predictive abilities of SQGs. This is relevant, given the recent introduction of North American-derived SQGs for Australia.     

Predictive abilities of numerical sediment quality guidelines in Sydney Harbour, Australia, and vicinity

Matching chemical and toxicological data of surficial sediments from Sydney Harbour, Australia, and vicinity, were collected to evaluate predictive abilities of Effects Range-Low (ERL), Effects Range-Median (ERM) and other sediment quality guidelines (SQGs). Samples (n=103) containing a wide range of chemicals and concentrations were subjected to a battery of 4-6 toxicity tests. ERLs and functionally equivalent low-range SQGs were highly predictive of non-toxicity when not exceeded, as incidences of toxicity were 0-8%. ERMs and other mid-range SQGs were predictive of toxicity in combined test data with > or = 80% of toxic samples with one or more SQG exceeded. Predictive abilities of mid-range SQGs were low for amphipod survival tests (generally < 20% toxic samples), but the incidence of toxicity increased with increasing numbers of SQGs exceeded and increasing mean SQG quotients. Predictive abilities of SQGs generally matched their narrative intent when outcomes of multiple toxicity tests were considered, and were consistent with North American data. Functionally equivalent SQGs gave comparable results (except where developed for single chemical classes), indicating that predictive abilities were primarily influenced by sensitivities of test species and/or the bioavailability of contaminants.     

An evaluation of measurement methods for organic, elemental and black carbon in ambient air monitoring sites

The carbonaceous components of Particulate Matter samples form a substantial fraction of their total mass, but their quantification depends strongly on the instruments and methods used. United Kingdom monitoring networks have provided many relevant data sets that are already in the public domain. Specifically, hourly organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were determined at four sites between 2003 and 2007 using Rupprecht and Pattashnik (R & P) 5400 automatic instruments. Since 2007, daily OC/EC measurements have been made by manual thermo-optical analysis of filter samples using a Sunset Laboratory Carbon Aerosol Analysis instrument. In parallel, long term daily measurements of Black Smoke, a quantity directly linked to black carbon (measured by aethalometers) and indirectly related to elemental carbon, have been made at many sites. The measurement issues associated with these techniques are evaluated in the context of UK measurements, making use of several sets of parallel data, with the aim of aiding the interpretation of network results. From the results available, the main conclusions are that the R & P 5400 instruments greatly under-read EC and total carbon (TC = OC + EC) at kerbside sites, probably due to the fact that the smaller particles are not sampled by the instrument; the R & P 5400 instrument is inherently difficult to characterise, so that all quantitative results need to be treated with caution; both aethalometer and Black Smoke (converted to black carbon) measurements can show reasonable agreement with elemental carbon results; and manual thermo-optical OC/EC results may under-read EC (and hence over-read OC), whether either transmittance or reflectance is used for the pyrolysis correction, and this effect is significant at rural sites.