Loss of plant species richness and habitat connectivity in grasslands associated with agricultural change in Finland

The drastic loss of seminatural grasslands and the decrease in species diversity in Europe during the 20th century are closely linked to social-economic factors. Development in agricultural production drives land-use changes, and thus controls the capacity of landscapes to maintain biodiversity. In this study, we link agricultural production changes to landscape fragmentation and species diversity. Our results show that the termination of grazing on seminatural grassland caused significant changes in landscape structure and a decline in the number of vascular plant species. The decline of grazed grasslands has been driven mainly by farm-level economic efficiency and profitability interests, which have been connected with agricultural policy measures. Since 1995, when Finland joined the European Union, the area of grazed patches in our study area has again increased as a result of a support scheme for the management of seminatural grasslands.     

Is catchment productivity a useful predictor of taxa richness in lake plankton communities?

The influence of catchment variables on lake organisms is understudied. The terrestrial zone in the vicinity of lakes is, however, probably highly important for biota due to the effects on water chemistry and to various processes operating across ecosystem boundaries. We examined the relative importance of lake and catchment variables, as well as large-scale geographical factors, on the taxa richness of phyto- and zooplankton in 100 small lakes in Finland. In variation partitioning, the variability of phytoplankton richness was most strongly related to the effects of lake variables, the joint effects of lake and catchment variables, and the joint effects of all three groups of variables. Zooplankton richness, in turn, was most strongly related to the effects of lake and catchment variables and the joint effect of lake and catchment variables. The exact results of the variation partitioning depended on the catchment sizes considered in the regression models. Among lake variables, planktonic richness was strongly related to variables indicating productivity. Among catchment variables, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), indicating catchment productivity, showed a relatively strong association with planktonic richness. These results provide evidence that catchment variables such as the NDVI may be efficient predictors of planktonic richness in small lakes. It is possible that individual lakes embedded in a highly productive landscape have higher taxa richness than solitary, potentially productive lakes because of the high influx of dispersing propagules from the regional pool. We also suggest that catchment variables may respond to environmental changes at different scales than the lake variables, and explicit consideration of catchment productivity would therefore be useful when planning research and monitoring programs for freshwater organisms.     

The role of local and landscape level measures of greenness in modelling boreal plant species richness

Measurements of primary productivity and its heterogeneity based on satellite images can provide useful estimates of species richness and distribution patterns. However, species richness at a given site may depend not only on local habitat quality and productivity but also on the characteristics of the surrounding landscape. In this study we investigated whether the predictions of species richness of plant families in northern boreal landscape in Finland can be improved by incorporating greenness information from the surrounding landscape, as derived from remotely sensed data (mean, maximum, standard deviation and range values of NDVI derived from Landsat ETM), into local greenness models. Using plant species richness data of 28 plant families from 440 grid cells of 25 ha in size, generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted into three different sets of explanatory variables: (1) local greenness only, (2) landscape greenness only, and (3) combined local and landscape greenness. The derived richness–greenness relationships were mainly unimodal or positively increasing but varied between different plant families, and depended also on whether greenness was measured as mean or maximum greenness. Incorporation of landscape level greenness variables improved significantly both the explanatory power and cross-validation statistics of the models including only local greenness variables. Landscape greenness information derived from remote sensing data integrated with local information has thus the potentiality to improve predictive assessments of species richness over extensive and inaccessible areas, especially in high-latitude landscapes. Overall, the significant relationship between plants and surrounding landscape quality detected here suggests that landscape factors should be considered in preserving species richness of boreal environments, as well as in conservation planning for biodiversity in other environments.     

Amphibian occurrence is influenced by current and historic landscape characteristics.

Human-induced habitat loss and degradation are major threats to wetland species as reflected in the fact that wetlands have declined by more than 50% in Europe and North America during the last century. Both current and historic land-use patterns are likely to be significant determinants of wetland species' distributions; however their relative importance is often unknown. We studied the importance of local (study pond) and landscape (current and 18th-century landscape) characteristics in explaining the occurrence and species richness of amphibians (Rana arvalis, Bufo bufo, and Triturus vulgaris) on the Swedish island of Gotland, where more than 40% of wetlands have been lost since the 18th century. Current local habitat characteristics were the strongest determinants of occurrence for all study species. Additionally, species occurrence was related to current and historic landscape characteristics, which generally explained equal amounts of the variation in species-occurrence data. The proportions of both current and historic arable land were negative determinants of amphibian occurrence and species richness, indicating that agricultural land use may have an overall negative impact on amphibians, and that amphibians may occur less frequently in areas with a long agricultural history. Likewise, historic forest area was positively related to B. bufo occurrence and species richness, whereas current forests had no significant effects, suggesting that there may be a lag in the response of amphibians to agriculture-mediated habitat loss. Our results suggest that historic land-use patterns may influence current amphibian populations and that inclusion of historic land-use information could be a valuable tool in future studies on amphibian-habitat relations.     

Managing Radioactively Contaminated Land: Implications for Habitat Diversity

Radioactive contamination of agricultural land may necessitate long-term changes in food production systems, through application of selected countermeasures, in order to reduce the accumulation of radionuclides in food. We quantified the impact of selected countermeasures on habitat diversity, using the hypothetical case of two agricultural areas in Finland. The management scenarios studied were conversions from grassland to cereal production and from grassland and crop production to afforestation. The two study sites differed with respect to present agricultural production: one being predominantly cereal production and seminatural grasslands, while the other was dominated by intensive grass and dairy production. Some of the management scenarios are expected to affect landscape structures and habitat diversity. These potential changes were assessed using a spatial pattern analysis program in connection with geographic information systems. The studied landscape changes resulted in a more monotonous landscape structure compared to the present management, by increasing the mean habitat patch size, reducing the total habitat edge length and reducing the overall habitat diversity calculated by the Shannon diversity index. The degree of change was dependent on the present agricultural management practice in the case study sites. Where dairy production was predominant, the landscape structure changes were mostly due to conversion of intensive pastures and grasslands to cereal production. In the area dominated by cereal production and seminatural grasslands, the greatest predicted impacts resulted from afforestation of meadows and pastures. The studied management changes are predicted to reduce biodiversity at the species level as well as diminishing species-rich habitats. This study has predicted prominent side effects in habitat diversity resulting from application of management scenarios. These potential long-term impacts should be considered by decision-makers when planning future strategies in the event of radionuclide deposition.     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

与芬兰农业变化有关的草地中植物种类丰富度和生境连通度的降低

20世纪中,欧洲半天然草地严重减少,物种多样性降低,这与社会-经济因素密切相关.农业生产的发展驱动着土地利用的变化,从而控制着景观维持生物多样性的能力.本研究中,我们把农业生产变化和景观破碎化、物种多样性联系在一起.结果表明,半天然草地的停止放牧引起了景观结构的显著变化,并使维管束植物种的数目降低.放牧草场数量的下降主要是受与农业政策措施有关的农场水平的经济效果和收益率的影响.自1995年芬兰加入欧盟以来,由于对半天然草地经营有了扶持政策,我们研究地区中放牧斑块的面积又一次增加了.     

Microrefugia: Not for everyone

Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.     

The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species

We explored the effects of prevalence, latitudinal range and clumping (spatial autocorrelation) of species distribution patterns on the predictive accuracy of eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques: Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), Generalized Boosting Method (GBM), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Mixture Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Random Forest (RF). One hundred species of Lepidoptera, selected from the Distribution Atlas of European Butterflies, and three climate variables were used to determine the bioclimatic envelope for each butterfly species. The data set consisting of 2620 grid squares 30′ × 60′ in size all over Europe was randomly split into the calibration and the evaluation data sets. The performance of different models was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Observed differences in modelling accuracy among species were then related to the geographical attributes of the species using GAM. The modelling performance was negatively related to the latitudinal range and prevalence, whereas the effect of spatial autocorrelation on prediction accuracy depended on the modelling technique. These three geographical attributes accounted for 19–61% of the variation in the modelling accuracy. Predictive accuracy of GAM, GLM and MDA was highly influenced by the three geographical attributes, whereas RF, ANN and GBM were moderately, and MARS and CTA only slightly affected. The contrasting effects of geographical distribution of species on predictive performance of different modelling techniques represent one source of uncertainty in species spatial distribution models. This should be taken into account in biogeographical modelling studies and assessments of climate change impacts.