The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling

Using known occurrences of species and correlational modeling approaches has become a common paradigm in broad-scale ecology and biogeography, yet important aspects of the methodology remain little-explored in terms of conceptual basis. Here, we explore the conceptual and empirical reasons behind choice of extent of study area in such analyses, and offer practical, but conceptually justified, reasoning for such decisions. We assert that the area that has been accessible to the species of interest over relevant time periods represents the ideal area for model development, testing, and comparison.     

Mapping and Eradication Prioritization Modeling of Red Sesbania (Sesbania punicea) Populations

Red sesbania is an invasive South American shrub that has rapidly expanded its range along California waterways, emphasizing the need to prioritize eradication sites at a regional scale. To accomplish this, we updated baseline location data in summer 2010 using field surveys throughout the state. We collected relevant GPS attribute data for GIS analysis and eradication prioritization modeling. The regional survey identified upstream and downstream extents for each watershed, as well as outliers in urban areas. We employed the Weed Heuristics: Invasive Population Prioritization for Eradication Tool (WHIPPET) to prioritize red sesbania sites for eradication, and revised the WHIPPET model to consider directional propagule flow of a riparian species. WHIPPET prioritized small populations isolated from larger infestations, as well as outliers in residential areas. When we compared five experts’ assessments of a stratified sample of the red sesbania populations to WHIPPET’s prioritization results, there was a positive, but nonsignificant, correlation. The combination of WHIPPET and independent expert opinion suggests that small, isolated populations and upstream source populations should be the primary targets for eradication. Particular attention should be paid to these small populations in watersheds where red sesbania is a new introduction. The use of this model in conjunction with evaluation by the land manager may help prevent the establishment of new seed sources and protect uninfested riparian corridors and their adjacent watersheds.