Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Statistical accuracy for estimations of large wood blockage in a reservoir environment

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The blockage of weirs or bridges by in-stream wood can reduce the flood discharge capacity, leading to hazardous situations. To assess the related risk, blocking...     

Chemical- and effect-oriented exposomics: Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR)

Exposomic studies of the rapidly changing environment of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) after its impounding is elaborated as a novel field of human and environmental research. Molecular exposomics is focused on the measure of all exposures to molecules and especially persistent organic pollutants-like compounds are of emerging interest due to their lifetime existence in the environment and humans. Theoretical considerations in general and particular for the TGR are deduced and presented using quantitative approaches for this research field. Since exposomics is strongly time-dependent, a theory is presented to link extension of exposure, time, and related effects. Similarity to the first law of thermodynamics is outlined. On top of this, the integrated use of biomarkers is presented employing chemical analysis for biomarkers of exposure and effects, biomarkers in vivo, in vitro approaches and the link between chemical mixtures, and the onset of disease and lethality. Besides real organisms, also virtual organisms are favored to act as well-defined sub-compartments such as fat of biota and with respect to time of exposure. Exposomics is the perspective of risk evaluation and chronic exposures in the running century. It needs novel theories, approaches, and integrated action between medical and environmental disciplines. The existing knowledge about molecular stressors has to be assembled and put into a context especially with respect not only to time resp. lifetime exposure of humans but also eco-toxicological findings by using highly conserved phylogenetic mechanisms to enable links between human and risks of environmental biota. The TGR is a good example not only to employ biomonitoring of real but also virtual organisms due to the lack of established ecotopes in this changing environment so far. Progress in understanding long-term risks requires a proper theory as well as novel tools such as virtual organisms. On top, multidisciplinary approaches and the utilization of existing knowledge about the exposure of the environment and humans have to be merged and directed into mutual concepts. Effect-oriented and chemical analysis must be designed time-oriented to determine lifetime exposures of mankind and nature. Perspectively, a first attempt about exposomic theory and concepts is proposed and has to be developed experimentally further enclosing virtual besides of real organisms and compartments. Environmental and human exposomics have to be considered as a unified global issue in order to effectively utilize their mutual existing knowledge most effectively. The TGR is a challenging model system aiming this objective.     

Wildland–Urban Interface Fires and Socioeconomic Conditions: A Case Study of a Northwestern Patagonia City

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.     

Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

Resource Potentials and Limitations of A Nicaraguan Agricultural Region

Food production has to be increased in a sustainable way to meet the future global demand. A key position is attributed to developing countries. A deepened understanding of their agricultural regions with specific resource endowments and constraints is therefore crucial. In this study we propose a methodology based on material flux analysis (MFA) to assess the resource potentials and limitations of a Nicaraguan agricultural region. We focus on current regional and farm resource management and explore them under two scenarios. Indicators are nitrogen and the degrees of self-sufficiency (DSS) for energy, and the staples maize and beans. As data is scarce, most information is based on interviews with farmers of four categories and key persons, and on literature. The results show that nitrogen management does not differ considerably among categories. Nitrogen is mined mostly from staple plots. Self-sufficiency for beans is given in an average year. Yet, landless and small farmers neither produce enough maize for autoconsumption, nor are they self-sufficient for firewood. Energy supply is also the core problem of the region, since the DSS is 70%. Soil nitrogen stocks last at most for three more generations. Analyses with the scenario technique show that: (a) Unlimited population growth has serious consequences in the near future e.g. severe shortage of energy and food. (b) Alternative farming systems are possible, but they require reducing the population by a factor 2, and thus the creation of jobs in a Hinterland. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

建立我国生态环境标准体系的初步构想

我国的生态环境标准极其薄弱，建立生态环境标准体系是我国生态环境保护的迫切需要。借鉴我国目前针对污染防治的环境标准体系，提出了我国生态环境标准体系的基本框架，以及生态环境标准制订的原则和重点。     

Prenatal diagnosis of carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase deficiency by fetal liver biopsy

In a pregnancy at risk for carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase (CPS) deficiency, prenatal diagnosis was attempted by fetal liver biopsy, performed at 18 weeks of gestation. CPS activity was absent and the diagnosis was confirmed after termination of the pregnancy. The technique employed for fetal liver biopsy is described together with an evaluation of its possible role in prenatal diagnosis.