A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

A study on the behaviour of pesticides and their transformation products in the Scheldt estuary using liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry

Off-line solid-phase extraction (SPE) combined with liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS-MS) was used to study the estuarine behaviour of the polar pesticides, atrazine, chloridazon, diuron and metolachlor, and their transformation products (TPs), hydroxyatrazine (HA), desisopropylatrazine (DIA), desethylatrazine (DEA), 3,4-dichlorophenylmethylurea (DPMU) and monuron. The compounds were identified by comparing their LC retention times and product-ion spectra with those of standard solutions. In all but one case the detection limits of the method were sufficient to determine the compounds of interest over the entire salinity range in the estuary. The concentrations of the dissolved pesticides ranged from 70 ng l-1 for chloridazon to 1350 ng l-1 for diuron. The levels of TPs were 3-8% of the levels of their parent pesticide. The mixing plots of polar pesticides and their TPs indicated that TPs, which are present in fresh river water, are conservatively transported to the sea and that no additional amounts of TPs are formed during their transport through the estuary. The one exception was HA, of which approximately 10% of the amount transported to the North Sea is formed in the lower part of the estuary by photochemical oxidation of atrazine. The latter was concluded from the ratios of each analyte over the sum total of the parent pesticide and all TPs along the salinity gradient, which proved to be a useful tool for identifying such estuarine transformations.     

Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy: Chromosome quality,reporting time,and feto-maternal bleeding

Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) was performed in 210 pregnancies from 13 to 38 weeks using a double-needle technique. The sampling success was comparable to first-trimester TA-CVS and the diagnostic success rate was 98.2 per cent for the short-term technique and 99.3 per cent for cultured villi. Two fetuses could not be karyotyped. We found the chromosome quality to be similar to that in the first trimester, comparing the number of G-bands and other chromosome attributes. There were no unintended losses in a group (n = 142) with no sonographic abnormality, except for one death in utero at 38 weeks, 20 weeks after sampling. Chromosomal aberrations were seen in 19 per cent of cases with abnormal sonograms (n = 58). One case of a discordant karyotype was found (false-negative prediction of Down's syndrome by the short-term preparation). There were no cases of fetal demise due to feto-maternal bleeding. It is suggested that double-needle TA-CVS in advanced pregnancies combines the advantages of rapid karyotyping of chromosomes of good quality and low risk for the fetus, and seems to be easier to practise and is probably safer than cordocentesis.     

Exclusion of citrullinaemia in the first trimester of pregnancy by direct assay of argininosuccinate synthetase in chorionic villi

Citrullinaemia was presumed to be excluded in a fetus at risk by the direct assay of argininosuccinate synthetase in chorionic villi. The diagnosis was confirmed after amniocentesis by normal argininosuccinate synthetase activity in the cultured amniotic fluid cells and by a normal citrulline concentration in the amniotic fluid. The prediction of a normal fetus was confirmed at term by the birth of a non-citrullinaemic boy.     

Chorionic villus culture for prenatal diagnosis of chromosome defects: Reduction of the long-term cultivation time

We report in detail two series of chorionic villus cultivation for prenatal chromosomal diagnosis. Chorionic villi were sampled from both first- and second-trimester pregnancies. One hundred cultures were treated with trypsin–EDTA for 2 h and collagenase overnight, (method A) and 100 were treated with trypsin–EDTA for 1 h and collagenase for 2 h (method B). Using short-term enzymatic digestion, the cultivation time was reduced from 14 days to 6 days. Sufficient amounts of metaphases of good quality were present in 93 per cent of primary cultures harvested in situ, whereas enough metaphases of sufficiently good quality were in most cases present only after subcultivation of the cultures using method A. The decrease in cultivation time obtained is probably due to a higher yield of viable cells in monocellular suspension, an increased attachment efficiency, and a more rapid attachment of single cells (within 24 h).     

近期和长远时段内北极生态系统结构受到的影响

生物在物种水平上对全球气候变暖和紫外线B(UV-B)辐射增强的反应受到其群落内其他物种以及生态系统内养分循环的调节,所有的这些反应将会导致生态系统结构的变化.根据高纬度地区坏境因子的可能变化而做的控制试验表明,由夏季变暖而引起苔原植被的变化要小于增加施肥而引起的变化,试验涉及的某些环境因子对北极生态系统的结构有非常强烈地影响,但是这些影响因地区而异,观测结果表明,处于最寒冷地区的植物群落和无脊椎动物群落对全球气候变暖和紫外线B辐射的增强反应最为强烈.尽管微生物量和养分储存量相对稳定,北极无脊椎动物群落还是很可能会对全球变暖产生迅速的反应.试验结果显示,加强紫外线B辐射会改变革兰氏阴性细菌和真菌的群落组成结构,但不会对植物群落的组成产生影响.由夏季气温升高而提高的植物生产力将会控制食物网的动态变化,以苔原植被和亚极地森林植物为基础的食物网中的营养流动会明显地影响到几种优势动物种群数量的周期性波动,在某些年分这些动物的种群数量会达到峰值.小型啮齿动物和食叶昆虫如秋毛虫种群数量的周期性变化则会影响苔原和森林苔原植物的组成结构和多样性,同时也会影响到一些专性捕食者和寄生虫的变化.在暖冬,雪表形成冰壳可能会减少旅鼠的植物食物来源,然而较深的雪也可以使它们免受雪地表面上捕食者对它们的捕食.在芬诺斯堪的亚地区,已有证据表明小型啮齿类动物群落结构和种群动态的显著变化会导致专门以小型啮齿类动物为食物的捕食者的数量减少.气候还可能改变昆虫在白桦森林生态系统中的作用,因为暖冬可以增加这些昆虫卵的成活率,并且扩大其分布范围.此外,在夏季困扰驯鹿的昆虫会由于夏季气候的变暖而扩大其分布范围、增加种群数量并且种群更为活跃;同时在另一方面也会对驯鹿不利,即那些昔日驯鹿/北美驯鹿的避难场所--冰川和未融的成片的雪--在这样温暖的夏季则可能会消失.     

Rapid detection of numerical aberrations of chromosomes 13, 18 and 21 in chorionic mesenchymal cells

We have devised and evaluated a rapid screening method for the detection of numerical aberrations of chromosomes13, 18 and 21 in chorionic villus cells. We used non-radioactive in situ hybridization (ISH) with three chromosome-specific probes on overnight-attached mesenchymal cells from chorionic villi. A blind study was performed of 47 karyotypically normal samples, one triploid sample, two samples trisomic for chromosome 21, and two samples from a fetus with putative mosaicism (46/47, +21). All samples were hybridized with the chromosome 18- and 21-specific probes. Thirty samples were additionally hybridized with the chromosome 13-specific probe. The test could be completed within 3-4 days of sampling. In samples disomic with respect to the probed chromosomes, an average of 2 per cent (range 0-9 per cent) had three hybridization signals. By contrast, in the samples trisomic for the probed chromosome(s), 57 per cent (chromosome 13), 51 per cent (chromosome 18), and an average of 74 per cent (55-86 per cent) (chromosome 21) of the nuclei exhibited three signals. In the putative mosaic samples, the number of nuclei with three chromosome 21-specific signals ranged from 41 to 69 per cent. We conclude that this technique rapidly and clearly distinguishes between normal and trisomic/triploid samples, and consequently may be of use in future prenatal diagnosis.     

Human appropriation of net primary production as determinant of avifauna diversity in Austria

The relationship between land-use induced changes in production ecology and avifauna diversity was analysed using a GIS land cover dataset on a 0.25 km × 0.25 km grid covering Austria's national territory. Considering only aboveground processes, the “human appropriation of net primary production” (HANPP = potential NPP − NPP_t), actual NPP (NPP_act), harvest (NPP_h) and NPP_t (= NPP_act − harvest) were recalculated based on existing datasets. Elevation as well as indicators of land cover heterogeneity and landscape heterogeneity were also considered. Correlation analyses were performed between these potential determinants of avifauna diversity and breeding bird species richness data as well as the percentage of endangered breeding birds included in the Austrian red list. Four spatial scales—0.25 km × 0.25 km, 1 km × 1 km, 4 km × 4 km and 16 × 16 km, were analysed. It was shown that breeding bird species richness was more strongly correlated with production ecological indicators and elevation than with heterogeneity indicators. A residual analysis in which the effect of elevation (a proxy for climate) on species richness and its potential determinants was removed confirmed the importance of the availability of trophic energy (NPP) for bird diversity patterns. The results support the species-energy hypothesis, thus confirming the notion that HANPP could be a useful pressure indicator for biodiversity loss.     

Prenatal diagnosis of medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency in a family with a previous fatal case of sudden unexpected death in childhood

Medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency is a potentially fatal inherited disease with a carrier frequency of approximately 1:100 in most Caucasian populations. The disease is implicated in sudden unexpected death in childhood. A prevalent disease-causing point mutation (A985G) in the MCAD gene has been characterized, thus rendering diagnosis easy in the majority of cases. Since the clinical spectrum of MCAD deficiency ranges from death in the first days of life to an asymptomatic life, there are probably other genetic factors—in addition to MCAD mutations—involved in the expression of the disease. Thus, families who have experienced the death of a child from MCAD deficiency might have an increased risk of a seriously affected subsequent child. In such a family we have therefore performed a prenatal diagnosis on a chorionic villus sample by a highly specific and sensitive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the G985 mutation. The analysis was positive and resulted in abortion. We verified the diagnosis by direct analysis on blood spots and other tissue material from the aborted fetus and from family members.