An experimental investigation of explanations for inconsistencies in responses to second offers in double referenda

This paper demonstrates the potential for induced preference experiments to test previously unverified explanations of observed behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation called for experimental evidence on potential biases in the double referendum format. We test Carson, Groves, and Machina's (Incentives and informational properties of preference questions, Plenary address to the European Association of Resource and Environmental Economists, Oslo, Norway, June 1999) simple cost uncertainty and weighted averaging explanations of inconsistent responses to follow-up offers in such double referenda against a baseline of certainty and truthful preference revelation. The results find evidence to support the Weighted Average hypothesis. Results regarding the cost uncertainty hypothesis are more ambiguous and merit further investigation.     

Outdoor Recreation and Participative Democracy in England and Wales

The Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000 places a duty on highways and national park authorities to establish local access forums (LAFs), to advise on the improvement of public access to land for the purposes of open air recreation and enjoyment. This paper examines these proposals in the context of recent academic and political debates about deliberative democracy, and empirical research on the nature and practice of existing access liaison groups and forums. While demonstrating that the proposed LAFs are consistent with contemporary constructs of participative, if not deliberative democracy, the paper argues that most existing groups and forums fall short of this ideal, in a number of significant respects. The paper proceeds to discuss the extent to which the draft regulations for LAFs in England and Wales address these issues, and concludes by questioning the extent to which such consultative arrangements can contribute to new forms of local governance.     

An Evaluation of Selenium Concentrations in Water, Sediment, Invertebrates, and Fish from the Republican River Basin: 1997–1999

The Republican River Basin of Colorado,Nebraska, and Kansas lies in a valley which contains PierreShale as part of its geological substrata. Selenium is anindigenous constituent in the shale and is readily leached intosurrounding groundwater. The Basin is heavily irrigated throughthe pumping of groundwater, some of which is selenium-contaminated, onto fields in agricultural production. Water,sediment, benthic invertebrates, and/or fish were collected from46 sites in the Basin and were analyzed for selenium to determinethe potential for food-chain bioaccumulation, dietary toxicity,and reproductive effects of selenium in biota. Resultingselenium concentrations were compared to published guidelines orbiological effects thresholds. Water from 38% of the sites (n = 18) contained selenium concentrations exceeding 5 g L^-1, which is reported to be a high hazard for selenium accumulation into the planktonic food chain. An additional 12 sites (26% of the sites) contained selenium in water between 3–5 g L^-1, constituting a moderate hazard. Selenium concentrations in sedimentindicated little to no hazard for selenium accumulation fromsediments into the benthic food chain. Ninety-five percent ofbenthic invertebrates collected exhibited selenium concentrationsexceeding 3 g g^-1, a level reported as potentially lethal to fish and birds that consume them. Seventy-five percent of fish collected in 1997, 90% in 1998, and 64% in 1999 exceeded 4 g g^-1selenium, indicating a high potential for toxicity andreproductive effects. However, examination of weight profilesof various species of collected individual fish suggestedsuccessful recruitment in spite of selenium concentrations thatexceeded published biological effects thresholds for health andreproductive success. This finding suggested that universalapplication of published guidelines for selenium may beinappropriate or at least may need refinement for systems similarto the Republican River Basin. Additional research is needed todetermine the true impact of selenium on fish and wildliferesources in the Basin.     

MERCURY EMISSION INVENTORY IN ONTARIO

Mercury is released to the environment from various anthropogenic and natural sources. This work is a compilation of mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources in Ontario, Canada. The goal of our study was to identify all sources of mercury, and develop an emission inventory of anthropogenic mercury in Ontario. The result of our investigation revealed that combustion of fossil fuels and emissions from landfill sites are two primary sources of mercury to the atmosphere. Other sources of significance are emissions from waste incinerators, various industrial activities, and cement production. Total mercury emission in Ontario is estimated as 4100 kg per year.     

Transvaginal chorionic villus sampling

Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) with either transcervical catheters or transabdominal needles is a widely-accepted method for prenatal diagnosis. However, there exists a small subset of patients in whom sampling is difficult or impossible with either route because of individual anatomic variations. A new method of chorionic villus biopsy has been developed to circumvent these problems, utilizing transvaginal chorionic needle aspiration guided by an intravaginal ultrasound probe. This technique was performed successfully in 15 patients in whom villi could not be obtained by either of the conventional methods. This method now makes CVS possible in essentially all women regardless of their uterine anatomy or placental placement; it may also prove useful for very early chorionic sampling.     

MATERNAL SERUM ALPHA-FETOPROTEIN SCREENING FOR OPEN NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS IN TWIN PREGNANCIES

Data on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 13–24 weeks' gestation in 46 twin pregnancies with open neural tube defects (22 with anencephaly, 24 with open spina bifida) and 169 unaffected twins were used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates associated with different cut-off levels. Using the conventional cut-off level of 2·5 multiples of the median (MoM) for unaffected singleton pregnancies of the same gestation and laboratory, the detection rate in twins was 99 per cent for anencephaly and 89 per cent for open spina bifida, with a false-positive rate of 30 per cent. Using a 5·0 MoM cut-off level to maintain a similar false-positive rate to that found among singleton pregnancies at 16–18 weeks' gestation (about 3 per cent), the detection rate was 83 per cent for anencephaly and 39 per cent for open spina bifida. Estimates are provided of the odds of having an affected twin pregnancy given a positive AFP result as well as the odds for individual women with a raised AFP level.