Generation of Priority Research Questions to Inform Conservation Policy and Management at a National Level

Abstract: Integrating knowledge from across the natural and social sciences is necessary to effectively address societal tradeoffs between human use of biological diversity and its preservation. Collaborative processes can change the ways decision makers think about scientific evidence, enhance levels of mutual trust and credibility, and advance the conservation policy discourse. Canada has responsibility for a large fraction of some major ecosystems, such as boreal forests, Arctic tundra, wetlands, and temperate and Arctic oceans. Stressors to biological diversity within these ecosystems arise from activities of the country's resource‐based economy, as well as external drivers of environmental change. Effective management is complicated by incongruence between ecological and political boundaries and conflicting perspectives on social and economic goals. Many knowledge gaps about stressors and their management might be reduced through targeted, timely research. We identify 40 questions that, if addressed or answered, would advance research that has a high probability of supporting development of effective policies and management strategies for species, ecosystems, and ecological processes in Canada. A total of 396 candidate questions drawn from natural and social science disciplines were contributed by individuals with diverse organizational affiliations. These were collaboratively winnowed to 40 by our team of collaborators. The questions emphasize understanding ecosystems, the effects and mitigation of climate change, coordinating governance and management efforts across multiple jurisdictions, and examining relations between conservation policy and the social and economic well‐being of Aboriginal peoples. The questions we identified provide potential links between evidence from the conservation sciences and formulation of policies for conservation and resource management. Our collaborative process of communication and engagement between scientists and decision makers for generating and prioritizing research questions at a national level could be a model for similar efforts beyond Canada.     

Biological Sustainability of Live Shearing of Vicuña in Peru

Abstract:  The vicuña's ( Vicugna vicugna ) fiber is highly valued as an export product that is made into luxury fabric and clothing. The price of fiber in 2004 was $566/kg, which makes the fiber a potentially important source of income for Andean agropastoral communities and serves as an incentive to allow vicuña grazing on high-elevation Andean landscapes. It is presumed that a shorn vicuña has little value for poachers, so shearing vicuñas could serve as a disincentive to poaching. Thus, the supply of vicuña fiber may be sustainable if it is procured through live shearing, which should serve as a powerful conservation tool. We evaluated the effects of capture and shearing on the demography of vicuña in one site located in the Salinas Aguada Blanca Reserve, Arequipa, Peru, where vicuñas were captured and shorn in spring and then returned to the wild. We conducted fixed-width line-transect censuses from 1997 to 2003 of this population. We compared the proportion of young born to females that were shorn versus females that were unshorn for the 3 years in which shearing occurred. We evaluated the effect of capture and shearing on proportion of young born to shorn and unshorn females at a second site, Picotani, Puno. The wild population in Arequipa that underwent capture and shearing showed a steady increase in total population and average density between 1997 and 2003. No significant difference was found between the proportion of young per female for shorn and unshorn females at either site. We conclude that in spring, capture and live shearing of vicuñas can be biologically sustainable. Further research is needed to determine whether shearing during winter months is biologically sustainable.     

The Value of Primary, Secondary, and Plantation Forests for a Neotropical Herpetofauna

Abstract:  Plantation forests and second-growth forests are becoming dominant components of many tropical forest landscapes. Yet there is little information available concerning the consequences of different forestry options for biodiversity conservation in the tropics. We sampled the leaf-litter herpetofauna of primary, secondary, and Eucalyptus plantation forests in the Jari River area of northeastern Brazilian Amazonia. We used four complementary sampling techniques, combined samples from 2 consecutive years, and collected 1739 leaf-litter amphibians (23 species) and 1937 lizards (30 species). We analyzed the data for differences among forest types regarding patterns of alpha and beta diversity, species-abundance distributions, and community structure. Primary rainforest harbored significantly more species, but supported a similar abundance of amphibians and lizards compared with adjacent areas of second-growth forest or plantations. Plantation forests were dominated by wide-ranging habitat generalists. Secondary forest faunas contained a number of species characteristic of primary forest habitat. Amphibian communities in secondary forests and Eucalyptus plantations formed a nested subset of primary forest species, whereas the species composition of the lizard community in plantations was distinct, and was dominated by open-area species. Although plantation forests are relatively impoverished, naturally regenerating forests can help mitigate some negative effects of deforestation for herpetofauna. Nevertheless, secondary forest does not provide a substitute for primary forest, and in the absence of further evidence from older successional stands, we caution against the optimistic claim that natural forest regeneration in abandoned lands will provide refuge for the many species that are currently threatened by deforestation .     

A GIS-Based Comparison of the Mexican National and IUCN Methods for Determining Extinction Risk

Abstract:  The national systems used in the evaluation of extinction risk are often touted as more readily applied and somehow more regionally appropriate than the system of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). We compared risk assessments of the Mexican national system (method for evaluation of risk of extinction of wild species [MER]) with the IUCN system for the 16 Polianthes taxa (Agavaceae), a genus of plants with marked variation in distribution sizes. We used a novel combination of herbarium data, geographic information systems (GIS), and species distribution models to provide rapid, repeatable estimates of extinction risk. Our GIS method showed that the MER and the IUCN system use similar data. Our comparison illustrates how the IUCN method can be applied even when all desirable data are not available, and that the MER offers no special regional advantage with respect to the IUCN regional system. Instead, our results coincided, with both systems identifying 14 taxa of conservation concern and the remaining two taxa of low risk, largely because both systems use similar information. An obstacle for the application of the MER is that there are no standards for quantifying the criteria of habitat condition and intrinsic biological vulnerability. If these impossible-to-quantify criteria are left out, what are left are geographical distribution and the impact of human activity, essentially the considerations we were able to assess for the IUCN method. Our method has the advantage of making the IUCN criteria easy to apply, and because each step can be standardized between studies, it ensures greater comparability of extinction risk estimates among taxa.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas