Applying the Declining Population Paradigm: Diagnosing Causes of Poor Reproduction in the Marbled Murrelet

Abstract:  We identified six approaches to diagnosing causes of population declines and illustrate the use of the most general one ("multiple competing hypotheses") to determine which of three candidate limiting factors—food availability, nesting site availability, and nest predation—were responsible for the exceptionally poor reproduction of Marbled Murrelets (  Brachyramphus marmoratus ) in central California. We predicted how six attributes of murrelet demography, behavior, and physiology should be affected by the candidate limiting factors and tested predictions with field data collected over 2 years. The average proportion of breeders, as estimated with radiotelemetry, was low (0.31) and varied significantly between years: 0.11 in 2000 and 0.50 in 2001. Murrelets spent significantly more time foraging in 2000 than in 2001, suggesting that low food availability limited breeding in 2000. In 2001, 50% of radio-marked murrelets nested and 67% of females were in breeding condition, suggesting that enough nest sites existed for much of the population to breed. However, rates of nest failure and nest predation were high (0.84 and 0.67–0.81, respectively) and few young were produced, even when a relatively high proportion of murrelets bred. Thus, we suggest that reproduction of Marbled Murrelets in central California is limited by food availability in some years and by nest predation in others, but apparently is not limited by availability of nesting sites. The multiple-competing-hypotheses approach provides a rigorous framework for identifying causes of population declines because it integrates multiple types of data sets and can incorporate elements of other commonly used approaches.     

Accounting for Uncertainty in Making Species Protection Decisions

Abstract:  Uncertainty gives rise to two decision errors in implementing the U.S. Endangered Species Act: listing species that are not in danger of extinction and delisting species that are in danger of extinction. I evaluated four methods (minimum standard, precautionary principle, minimax regret criterion, adaptive management) for deciding whether to list or delist a species when there is uncertainty about how those decisions are likely to influence survival of the species. A safe minimum standard criterion preserves some minimum amount or safe standard (population) of a species unless maintaining that amount generates unacceptable social cost. The precautionary principle favors not delisting a species when there is insufficient evidence on the efficacy of state management plans for protecting them. A minimax regret criterion selects the delisting decision that minimizes the maximum loss likely to occur under alternative ecosystem states. When the cost of making a correct decision is less than the cost of making an incorrect decision, the minimax regret criteria indicates that delisting is the optimal decision. Active adaptive management employs statistically valid experiments to test hypotheses about the likely impacts of delisting decisions. Safe minimum standard and minimax regret criterion are not compatible with the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The precautionary principle comes closest to describing how federal agencies make delisting decisions. Active adaptive management is scientifically superior to the other methods but is costly and time consuming and may not be compatible with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act.     

Effect of Land Cover and Ecosystem Mapping on Ecosystem‐Risk Assessment in the Little Karoo,South Africa

Extinction‐risk assessments aim to identify biological diversity features threatened with extinction. Although largely developed at the species level, these assessments have recently been applied at the ecosystem level. In South Africa, national legislation provides for the listing and protection of threatened ecosystems. We assessed how land‐cover mapping and the detail of ecosystem classification affected the results of risk assessments that were based on extent of habitat loss. We tested 3 ecosystem classifications and 4 land‐cover data sets of the Little Karoo region, South Africa. Degraded land (in particular, overgrazed areas) was successfully mapped in just one of the land‐cover data sets. From <3% to 25% of the Little Karoo was classified as threatened, depending on the land‐cover data set and ecosystem classification applied. The full suite of threatened ecosystems on a fine‐scale map was never completely represented within the spatial boundaries of a coarse‐scale map of threatened ecosystems. Our assessments highlight the importance of land‐degradation mapping for the listing of threatened ecosystems. On the basis of our results, we recommend that when budgets are constrained priority be given to generating more‐detailed land‐cover data sets rather than more‐detailed ecosystem classifications for the assessment of threatened ecosystems. El Efecto de la Cobertura Terrestre y el Mapeo de Ecosistemas en la Valoración de Riesgos en los Ecosistemas en Little Karoo, Sudáfrica     

Gastrointestinal Bacterial Transmission among Humans,Mountain Gorillas,and Livestock in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,Uganda

Abstract: Habitat overlap can increase the risks of anthroponotic and zoonotic pathogen transmission between humans, livestock, and wild apes. We collected Escherichia coli bacteria from humans, livestock, and mountain gorillas (Gorilla gorilla beringei) in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda, from May to August 2005 to examine whether habitat overlap influences rates and patterns of pathogen transmission between humans and apes and whether livestock might facilitate transmission. We genotyped 496 E. coli isolates with repetitive extragenic palindromic polymerase chain reaction fingerprinting and measured susceptibility to 11 antibiotics with the disc‐diffusion method. We conducted population genetic analyses to examine genetic differences among populations of bacteria from different hosts and locations. Gorilla populations that overlapped in their use of habitat at high rates with people and livestock harbored E. coli that were genetically similar to E. coli from those people and livestock, whereas E. coli from gorillas that did not overlap in their use of habitats with people and livestock were more distantly related to human or livestock bacteria. Thirty‐five percent of isolates from humans, 27% of isolates from livestock, and 17% of isolates from gorillas were clinically resistant to at least one antibiotic used by local people, and the proportion of individual gorillas harboring resistant isolates declined across populations in proportion to decreasing degrees of habitat overlap with humans. These patterns of genetic similarity and antibiotic resistance among E. coli from populations of apes, humans, and livestock indicate that habitat overlap between species affects the dynamics of gastrointestinal bacterial transmission, perhaps through domestic animal intermediates and the physical environment. Limiting such transmission would benefit human and domestic animal health and ape conservation.     

Increased Infectious Disease Susceptibility Resulting from Outbreeding Depression

Abstract:  The mechanisms by which outbreeding depression leads to reduced fitness are poorly understood. We considered the hypothesis that outbreeding can depress fitness by increasing the susceptibility of hybrid individuals and populations to infectious disease. Competitive breeding trials in experimental ponds indicated that outbred largemouth bass (  Micropterus salmoides ) crossed from two geographically and genetically distinct populations suffered a reduction in fitness of approximately 14% relative to parental stocks. We measured the comparative susceptibility of these same outbred stocks to a novel viral pathogen, largemouth bass virus. Following experimental inoculation, F2 generation hybrids suffered mortality at a rate 3.6 times higher than either F1 generation hybrids or wild-type parental fish. Analysis of viral loads indicated that viral replication was more rapid in F2 fish than in F1 hybrids or wild-type parental fish. We attribute these results to the disruption of coadapted gene complexes in the immune systems of outbred fish in the F2 generation. Increased susceptibility to infectious disease may be an important but underappreciated mechanism by which outbreeding reduces the fitness of individuals and populations and by which novel infectious diseases emerge in populations of hybrid organisms.