Short-run allocation of emissions allowances and long-term goals for climate policy

We use economic analysis to evaluate grandfathering, auctioning, and benchmarking approaches for allocation of emissions allowances and then discuss practical experience from European and American schemes. In principle, auctions are superior from the viewpoints of efficiency, fairness, transparency, and simplicity. In practice, auctions have been opposed by important sectors of industry, which argue that carbon pricing without compensation would harm international competitiveness. In the European Union's Emissions Trading System, this concern led to grandfathering that is updated at various intervals. Unfortunately, updating gives industry an incentive to change behavior to influence future allocation. Furthermore, the wealth transferred to incumbent firms can be significantly larger than the extra costs incurred, leading to windfall profits. Meanwhile, potential auction revenues are not available to reduce other taxes. By circumscribing free allocation, benchmarking can target competitiveness concerns, incur less wealth transfer, and provide a strategy consistent with transitioning to auctions in the long run.     

Ancillary benefits of reduced air pollution in the US from moderate greenhouse gas mitigation policies in the electricity sector

Actions to slow atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases also would reduce conventional air pollutants yielding “ancillary” benefits that tend to accrue locally and in the near-term. Using a detailed electricity model linked to an integrated assessment framework to value changes in human health, we find a tax of $25 per metric ton of carbon emissions would yield NO_x-related health benefits of about $8 per metric ton of carbon reduced in the year 2010 (1997 dollars). Additional savings of $4–$7 accrue from reduced investment in NO_x and SO₂ abatement in order to comply with emission caps. Total ancillary benefits of a $25 carbon tax are $12–$14, which appear to justify the costs of a $25 tax, although marginal benefits are less than marginal costs. At a tax of $75, greater total benefits are achieved but the value per ton of carbon reductions remains roughly constant at about $12.     

Toxicity of chemical components of fine particles inhaled by aged rats: effects of concentration

This study tested the hypothesis that exposure to mixtures containing fine particles and ozone (O3) would cause pulmonary injury and decrements in functions of immunological cells in exposed rats (22-24 months old) in a dose-dependent manner. Rats were exposed to high and low concentrations of ammonium bisulfate and elemental carbon and to 0.2 ppm O3. Control groups were exposed to purified air or O3 alone. The biological end points measured included histopathological markers of lung injury, bronchoalveolar lung fluid proteins, and measures of the function of the lung's innate immunological defenses (macrophage antigen-directed phagocytosis and respiratory burst activity). Exposure to O3 alone at 0.2 ppm did not result in significant changes in any of the measured end points. Exposures to the particle mixtures plus O3 produced statistically significant changes consistent with adverse effects. The low-concentration mixture produced effects that were statistically significant compared to purified air but, with the exception of macrophage Fc receptor binding, exposure to the high-concentration mixture did not. The effects of the low- and high-concentration mixtures were not significantly different. The study supports previous work that indicated that particle + O3 mixtures were more toxic than O3 alone.     

Model selection criteria for overdispersed data and their application to the characterization of a host-parasite relationship

In the statistical modeling of a biological or ecological phenomenon, selecting an optimal model among a collection of candidates is a critical issue. To identify an optimal candidate model, a number of model selection criteria have been developed and investigated based on estimating Kullback’s (Information theory and statistics. Dover, Mineola, 1968) directed or symmetric divergence. Criteria that target the directed divergence include the Akaike (2nd international symposium on information theory. Akadémia Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary, pp 267–281, 1973, IEEE Trans Autom Control AC 19:716–723, 1974) information criterion, AIC, and the “corrected” Akaike information criterion (Hurvich and Tsai in Biometrika 76:297–307, 1989), AICc; criteria that target the symmetric divergence include the Kullback information criterion, KIC, and the “corrected” Kullback information criterion, KICc (Cavanaugh in Stat Probab Lett 42:333–343, 1999; Aust N Z J Stat 46:257–274, 2004). For overdispersed count data, simple modifications of AIC and AICc have been increasingly utilized: specifically, the quasi Akaike information criterion, QAIC, and its corrected version, QAICc (Lebreton et al. in Ecol Monogr 62(1):67–118 1992). In this paper, we propose analogues of QAIC and QAICc based on estimating the symmetric as opposed to the directed divergence: QKIC and QKICc. We evaluate the selection performance of AIC, AICc, QAIC, QAICc, KIC, KICc, QKIC, and QKICc in a simulation study, and illustrate their practical utility in an ecological application. In our application, we use the criteria to formulate statistical models of the tick (Dermacentor variabilis) load on a white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) in northern Missouri.     

Dispersion by wind of CO2 leaking from underground storage: Comparison of analytical solution with simulation

The concentration of CO₂ in air near the ground needs to be predicted to assess environmental and health risks from leaking underground storage. There is an exact solution to the advection–diffusion equation describing trace gases carried by wind when the wind profile is modeled with a power-law dependence on height. The analytical solution is compared with a numerical simulation of the coupled air–ground system with a source of CO₂ underground at the water table. The two methods produce similar results far from the boundaries, but the boundary conditions have a strong effect; the simulation imposes boundary conditions at the edge of a finite domain while the analytic solution imposes them at infinity. The reverse seepage from air to ground is shown in the simulation to be very small, and the large difference between time scales suggests that air and ground can be modeled separately, with gas emissions from the ground model used as inputs to the air model.     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

What have we learnt from the European Union's Emissions Trading System?

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) demonstrated the ability to design and launch a large-scale trading system in a short period of time. The path from initial reticence about emissions trading to implementation of the world's largest program is an important history. Three issues play a large role in the evaluation of the program to date and its on-going development: allocation plans, cost uncertainty, and leakage of emissions to abroad. Decisions in Phase I and II (2005-2012) were responsive to questions of political feasibility and implementation, but some of these decisions including allocation in particular will be substantially revised in Phase III (2013-2020).     

Planning routes around the world: International evidence for southern route preferences

Three studies test whether the southern route preference, which describes the tendency for route planners to disproportionately select south- rather than north-going routes, can be attributed to regional elevation patterns; specifically, we ask whether this effect replicates in three topographically disparate international regions, one of which is characterized by higher elevations to the north and lower to the south (Padua, Italy), and two characterized by higher elevations to the south and lower to the north (Enschede, Netherlands; Sofia, Bulgaria). In all cases, we found strong evidence that route planners disproportionately select south- rather than north-going routes at rates exceeding chance. We conclude that the southern route preference is driven by strong associations between canonical direction and perceived effort of route traversal; these effects are somewhat perplexing given that such associations are not founded in the reality of physical space.     

Emission reductions from woody biomass waste for energy as an alternative to open burning

Woody biomass waste is generated throughout California from forest management, hazardous fuel reduction, and agricultural operations. Open pile burning in the vicinity of generation is frequently the only economic disposal option. A framework is developed to quantify air emissions reductions for projects that alternatively utilize biomass waste as fuel for energy production. A demonstration project was conducted involving the grinding and 97-km one-way transport of 6096 bone-dry metric tons (BDT) of mixed conifer forest slash in the Sierra Nevada foothills for use as fuel in a biomass power cogeneration facility. Compared with the traditional open pile burning method of disposal for the forest harvest slash, utilization of the slash for fuel reduced particulate matter (PM) emissions by 98% (6 kg PM/BDT biomass), nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 54% (1.6 kg NOx/BDT), nonmethane volatile organics (NMOCs) by 99% (4.7 kg NMOCs/BDT), carbon monoxide (CO) by 97% (58 kg CO/BDT), and carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) by 17% (0.38 t CO2e/BDT). Emission contributions from biomass processing and transport operations are negligible. CO2e benefits are dependent on the emission characteristics of the displaced marginal electricity supply. Monetization of emissions reductions will assist with fuel sourcing activities and the conduct of biomass energy projects.