Estimating change in annual timber products output using a stratified sampling with certainty design

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - A key aspect in understanding patterns in wood demand and harvesting activities is monitoring of timber products output by wood processing facilities....     

REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING STUDY FOR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: The development of a regional water supply system for the six-county area of Northeastern Illinois is presented in this paper, including: 1) the establishment of regional water supply technical planning policies; 2) the development and utilization of a regional water supply computer model to identify the principal and secondary sources of water supply for each entity in the study area, based on an apparent cost-effective source analysis; and 3) utilization of the study results to develop for the year 2010 a suggested preliminary regional water supply system. Using the findings from task 2 above, a proposed plan for overall Lake Michigan water use through the year 2010 was also developed. The effects of the proposed regional water supply system on future water levels in the deep aquifer were also discussed.     

Evaluation of a forage allocation model for Theodore Roosevelt National Park

We developed a forage allocation model using a deterministic, linear optimization module in a commercially available spreadsheet package to help resource managers in Theodore Roosevelt National Park (TRNP), North Dakota determine optimum numbers of four ungulate species, bison (Bison bison), elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and feral horses, in the Park. TRNP staff actively managed bison, elk, and feral horse numbers within bounds suggested by our model from 1983 to 1996. During this period, we measured vegetation at 8 grassland and 12 wooded sites at 1-3 year intervals to determine if model solutions were appropriate for maintaining stable conditions in important plant communities in the Park. The data we recorded at these sites indicated minimal change in plant communities from 1983 to 1996. Changes in most vegetation categories that we expected when animal numbers exceeded model optimums for short periods (decreases in coverage/stem numbers of palatable plant species, increases in bare ground or unpalatable plant species) did not occur consistently under high or low precipitation conditions. The lack of sensitivity of our model to decreases in overall production of palatable plant species that occurred due to drought, fire, expansion of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies, and the spread of leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) in areas of the Park where we did not have monitoring sites suggested that the model under-estimated the total number of ungulates that the Park could support. Management for population levels of ungulates defined by the model probably led to over protection of common plant communities and insufficient protection of rare plant communities. Detecting changes in rare plant communities could have been accomplished by re-designing our vegetation monitoring program, but changing emphasis to protection of rare plants would have likely promoted under use of grazing-tolerant habitat types, dissatisfaction in tourists visiting the Park to see large mammals, and large increases in cost and intrusiveness of management activities such as fencing and control of ungulate populations. The model was a flawed representation of grazing dynamics in TRNP, but we believe it succeeded in making management personnel aware of the biological constraints they face when making management decisions.     

A primer for nonresponse in the US forest inventory and analysis program

Nonresponse caused by denied access and hazardous conditions are a concern for the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, whose mission is to quantify status and trends in forest resources across the USA. Any appreciable amount of nonresponse can cause bias in FIA’s estimates of population parameters. This paper will quantify the magnitude of nonresponse and describe the mechanisms that result in nonresponse, describe and qualitatively evaluate FIA’s assumptions regarding nonresponse, provide a recommendation concerning plot replacement strategies, and identify appropriate strategies to pursue that minimize bias. The nonresponse rates ranged from 0% to 21% and differed by land owner group; with denied access to private land the leading cause of nonresponse. Current FIA estimators assume that nonresponse occurs at random. Although in most cases this assumption appears tenable, a qualitative assessment indicates a few situations where the assumption is not tenable. In the short-term, we recommend that FIA use stratification schemes that make the missing at random assumption tenable. We recommend the examination of alternative estimation techniques that use appropriate weighting and auxiliary information to mitigate the effects of nonresponse. We recommend the replacement of nonresponse sample locations not be used.     

Solution chemistry influence on metal mobility in biosolids-amended soils

Many studies have implicated dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as an important contributor to the elevated mobility of trace metals in soils amended with biosolids. Few of these studies, however, have quantified both DOC and metal concentrations. We completed laboratory leaching column studies on a dryland Platner loam (fine, smectitic, mesic Aridic Paleustoll) and an irrigated Osgood sand (loamy, mixed, mesic Arenic Ustollic Haplargid), both with a history of biosolids application. The soils were neutral to slightly alkaline in pH prior to amendment. We performed an additional application of biosolids to one set of columns in the laboratory at a rate of 28 Mg ha(-1) to investigate the effect of time following application on metal mobility. The effect of electrolyte concentration was studied by using both distilled water and simulated irrigation water. Biosolids application increased both DOC and Cu in the column effluents resulting in a positive correlation between Cu and DOC across application treatments for both soils. Both Cu and Pb were mobilized under conditions of low electrical conductivity (EC). This may be the result of the release of a strong metal-binding component of DOC under these conditions. Conversely, Zn mobility was positively correlated with EC, suggesting that either cation exchange or the formation of inorganic complexes influences Zn mobility. Anodic stripping voltammetry measurements indicated that only a small percentage of the total dissolved metals existed as free ions or inorganic complexes; the remainder appears to be complexed to DOC.     

Detecting change in advance tree regeneration using forest inventory data: the implications of type II error

Achieving adequate and desirable forest regeneration is necessary for maintaining native tree species and forest composition. Advance tree seedling and sapling regeneration is the basis of the next stand and serves as an indicator of future composition. The Pennsylvania Regeneration Study was implemented statewide to monitor regeneration on a subset of Forest Inventory and Analysis plots measured by the U.S. Forest Service. As management techniques are implemented to improve advance regeneration, assessments of the change in the forest resource are needed. When the primary focus is on detecting change, hypothesis tests should have small type II (β) error rates. However, most analyses are based on minimizing type I (α) error rates and type II error rates can be quite large. When type II error rates are high, actual improvements in regeneration can remain undetected and the methods that brought these improvements may be deemed ineffective. The difficulty in detecting significant change in advance regeneration when small type I error rates are given priority is illustrated. For statewide assessments, power (1-β) to detect changes in proportion of area having adequate advance regeneration is relatively weak (≤0.5) when the change is smaller than 0.05. For evaluations conducted at smaller spatial scales, such as wildlife management units, the reduced sample size results in only marginal power even when relatively large changes (≥0.20) in area proportion occur. For fixed sample sizes, analysts can consider accepting larger type I error rates to increase the probability of detecting change (smaller type II error rates) when it occurs, such that management methods that positively affect regeneration can be identified.