Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is crucial. To estimate the effect of tree size and spatial distributions on growth for forest structures commonly considered in uneven-aged forest stand management, large (0.2 ha+) plots were established in 14 uneven-aged ponderosa pine stands in eastern Montana. All study trees were stem-mapped and measured for diameter and 10-year sapwood and basal area increment. A generalized growth model was developed to predict both total and merchantable 10-year basal area increment for nine hypothetical stand structures [three diameter distributions (reverse-J, irregular, flat) × three spatial distributions (clumpy, partial clumpy, uniform)]. Results indicate that the size and spatial distributions of individual trees have a considerable effect on overall stand growth. The greatest total stand growth was in stands with reverse “J” shaped tree size distributions, while the greatest merchantable stand growth was in stands with “flat” diameter distributions and uniform spatial distributions. Through better comprehension of generalized uneven-aged stand growth dynamics, forest managers may better assess the effects of alternative stand structures on stand growth while providing forest stand structures that may be more resilient in a changing climate.     

A comparison of hourly with annual air pollutant emissions: Implications for estimating acute exposure and public health risk

Health risks from air pollutants are evaluated by comparing chronic (i.e., an average over 1 yr or greater) or acute (typically 1-hr) exposure estimates with chemical- and duration-specific reference values or standards. When estimating long-term pollutant concentrations via exposure modeling, facility-level annual average emission rates are readily available as model inputs for most air pollutants. In contrast, there are far fewer facility-level hour-by-hour emission rates available for many of these same pollutants. In this report, we first analyze hour-by-hour emission rates for total reduced sulfur (TRS) compounds from eight kraft pulp mill operations. This data set is used to demonstrate discrepancies between estimating exposure based on a single TRS emission rate that has been calculated as the mean of all operating hours of the year, as opposed to reported hourly emission rates. A similar analysis is then performed using reported hourly emission rates for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) from three power generating units from a U.S. power plant. Results demonstrate greater variability at kraft pulp mill operations, with ratios of reported hourly to average hourly TRS emissions ranging from less than 1 to greater than 160 during routine facility operations. Thus, if fluctuations in hourly emission rates are not accounted for, over- or underestimates of hourly exposure, and thus acute health risk, may occur. In addition to this analysis, we also demonstrate an additional challenge when assessing health risk based on hourly exposures: the lack of human health reference values based on 1-hr exposures.

Implications: Largely due to the lack of reported hourly emission rate data for many air pollutants, an hourly average emission rate (calculated from an annual emission rate) is often used when modeling the potential for acute health risk. We calculated ratios between reported hourly and hourly average emission rates from pulp and paper mills and a U.S. power plant to demonstrate that if not considered, hourly fluctuations in emissions could result in an over- or underestimation of exposure and risk. We also demonstrate the lack of 1-hr human health reference values meant to be protective of the general population, including children.     

Environmental performance measurement: A case study

Based on information derived in a benchmark study of corporate environmental programs and their performance measurement systems and stakeholder concerns, an environmental performance measurement system was developed to be used by the utility industry. Pilot studies were conducted to evaluate the usefulness of the proposed system, as well as to solicit feedback from individuals in the field. The pilot studies were necessary to tailor the system to the utility industry.     

Estimating Dead Wood During National Forest Inventories: A Review of Inventory Methodologies and Suggestions for Harmonization

Efforts to assess forest ecosystem carbon stocks, biodiversity, and fire hazards have spurred the need for comprehensive assessments of forest ecosystem dead wood (DW) components around the world. Currently, information regarding the prevalence, status, and methods of DW inventories occurring in the world’s forested landscapes is scattered. The goal of this study is to describe the status, DW components measured, sample methods employed, and DW component thresholds used by national forest inventories that currently inventory DW around the world. Study results indicate that most countries do not inventory forest DW. Globally, we estimate that about 13% of countries inventory DW using a diversity of sample methods and DW component definitions. A common feature among DW inventories was that most countries had only just begun DW inventories and employ very low sample intensities. There are major hurdles to harmonizing national forest inventories of DW: differences in population definitions, lack of clarity on sample protocols/estimation procedures, and sparse availability of inventory data/reports. Increasing database/estimation flexibility, developing common dimensional thresholds of DW components, publishing inventory procedures/protocols, releasing inventory data/reports to international peer review, and increasing communication (e.g., workshops) among countries inventorying DW are suggestions forwarded by this study to increase DW inventory harmonization.     

Predictors of conviction and sentencing of DWI offenders in a New Mexico County

OBJECTIVE: To analyze predictors of conviction and dismissal of individuals charged with DWI, and predictors of the sentences of those who are convicted. METHODS: Data come from the Citation Tracking System of the State of New Mexico's Motor Vehicle Division and includes information on all individuals who were arrested for DWI in San Juan County between August 1994 and December 2000. Independent variables were: age, gender, race/ethnicity, waiver of right to an attorney, court of arraignment, year of arrest, BAC, and number of prior DWI arrests. Dependent variables were: (1) conviction or dismissal, (2) jail or no jail, (3) incarceration/treatment or not, (4) fine or no fine, (5) length of jail sentence, (6) waived right of attorney, and (7) magnitude of fine. Multiple linear and logistic regression was used in the analyses. RESULTS: Use of an attorney is associated with reduced likelihood of conviction and, if convicted, in reduced likelihood of jail sentence and reduced jail time, but greater likelihood and magnitude of a fine. Native Americans were more likely than Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites to waive their right to an attorney. Native Americans were most likely to be sentenced to the detention/treatment program. BAC and number of prior arrests were each positively associated with increased likelihood of conviction and more severe sentences. There is also substantial variability in severity of sentencing among courts. CONCLUSION: Likelihood of conviction and severity of sentences are both determined by extra-legal factors, resulting in inconsistent application of the law. This may in turn contribute to a lack of compliance with laws related to DWI.     

Variations in jail sentences and the probability of re-arrest for driving while intoxicated

OBJECTIVE: The probability of re-arrest for driving while intoxicated (DWI) is compared for four different groups of individuals classified by whether the individual was convicted and, if so, the type of sentence received. METHOD: Subsequent re-arrests for DWI were examined for all individuals whose index arrest for DWI had occurred between 1994 and 2001 in a county in New Mexico. The groups included (1) those convicted as a result of the index arrest and sentenced to a 28-day jail/treatment program (N (#)=(#) 2,703); (2) all those not convicted as a result of the index arrest (N = 709); (3) those who were convicted but not sentenced to jail (N = 1,047); and (4) those convicted and sentenced to jail (N = 1,290). RESULTS: Adjusting for covariates of BAC, number of prior arrests, ethnicity, age, and sex, the probability of not being re-arrested was greatest among those sentenced to the jail/treatment program (Group 1), next highest in the two groups convicted but not sentenced to jail/treatment (Groups 3 and 4), and lowest in the group that was not convicted (Group 2). Length of jail sentence among people convicted but not sentenced to the jail/treatment program was unrelated to the probability of re-arrest. CONCLUSION: Conviction for DWI, regardless of the sentence, appears to reduce the probability of re-arrest, and being sentenced to a multi-modal treatment/incarceration program further reduces the probability of re-arrest. However, the other types of sentences do not appear to differ in their impact on probability of re-arrest.     

Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change

Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones, with stronger relationships apparent in some ecoregions. Finally, we detected broadscale seedling diversity increases among species with longer-distance dispersal capacity, even in the northern zone, where overall seedling diversity declined. The statistical power and geographic extent of such analyses will increase as data become available over larger areas and as plot measurements are repeated at regular intervals over a longer period of time.     

Reaching a forest land per capita milestone in the United States

During April 2007, forest land per capita in the United States dropped below 1 ha. This is the result of a rather static area of forest land in the United States for the past 100 years combined with population growth. The US now joins the ranks of most countries (77%) having forest land per capita below 1 ha. The combination of an increasing human population with stable or increasing per capita natural resource utilization may place even more demand on resources derived from forest land in the future. The forest land per capita should be expected to continue its downward trend unless substantive demographic, resource utilization, and land-use changes occur.     

Status and future of the forest health indicators program of the USA

For two decades, the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, has been charged with implementing a nationwide field-based forest health monitoring effort. Given its extensive nature, the monitoring program has been gradually implemented across forest health indicators and inventoried states. Currently, the Forest Service??s Forest Inventory and Analysis program has initiated forest health inventories in all states, and most forest health indicators are being documented in terms of sampling protocols, data management structures, and estimation procedures. Field data from most sample years and indicators are available on-line with numerous analytical examples published both internally and externally. This investment in national forest health monitoring has begun to yield dividends by allowing evaluation of state/regional forest health issues (e.g., pollution and invasive pests) and contributing substantially to national/international reporting efforts (e.g., National Report on Sustainability and US EPA Annual Greenhouse Gas Estimates). With the emerging threat of climate change, full national implementation and remeasurement of a forest health inventory should allow for more robust assessment of forest communities that are undergoing unprecedented changes, aiding future land management and policy decisions.