支持西印度洋地区海洋和海岸带资源可持续管理的海洋研究

西印度洋(WIO)地区以其迷人的海岸带、丰富的海洋生物多样性以及富饶的海洋和海岸带资源而著称.但是地处WIO地区的许多国家像肯尼亚、莫桑比克、索马里、南非、坦桑尼亚、科摩罗、马达加斯加、毛里求斯、留尼旺、塞舌尔等却极度贫困,特别是近二三十年以来,该地区的环境退化现象以及自然资源和生物多样性的下降越来越明显.     

Ternäre Verbindungen von Cadmiumhalogeniden mit Arsen und Antimon

The Science of Nature -     

Biological effects monitoring of the North Sea employing fish embryological data

Using the reproductive capacity of fish appears to be a suitable approach for risk assessment in the aquatic environment since fish are a typical representative thereof and in addition they are of considerable societal value. Generally the early embryonic stages are considered to be one of the most sensitive parts of a fish's life cycle. A method has been developed to use the state of health of live, naturally spawned fish embryos from plankton samples for biological effects monitoring. During the years 1985–1987 in the southern North Sea and in 1991–1992 in the whole of the North Sea fish eggs were sampled from surface waters and examined for developmental abnormalities. Elevated embryo malformation rates were detected in the plume of the major rivers Elbe and Rhine as well as along the eastern coast of England. Occurring malformations are thought to be pollution-related and may be used to define areas of environmental deterioration. The method is discussed in view of its suitability for biological effects monitoring using malformations in fish embryos as biomarkers.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in effluents from wastewater treatment plants and receiving streams in Tianjin, China

Surface water, suspended particulate matter, pore water, and sediment samples were collected and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Yongding New River, South Drainage Canal and North Drainage Canal, which receive most of wastewater from industrial city of Tianjin. PAH concentrations in effluent samples of wastewater treatment plants (WTP) discharging into the South Drainage Canal and North Drainage Canal were quantified for the first time. The results showed that the discharge of the WTPs recently only contributed to the PAH contamination in the canals near the outlets of the WTPs. PAH levels in sediments of the streams were greatly higher than those in soils by riverbank probably due to receiving large amounts of untreated wastewater. Unusually high benz[a] anthracene concentration strongly influenced the seasonal and spatial variation of total PAH concentrations in South Drainage Canal. Paired samples t test of ??Nap, Fl, Phe, Fluo and ??Nap, Phe, Fluo, Chry concentrations, which were dominant components in the air samples from non-heating and heating season, respectively, in the suspended particulate matters from the streams showed that PAH source from air deposition was more important for Yongding New River than that for South Drainage Canal and North Drainage Canal. Source apportionment based on PAH profiles indicated that coal combustion was the major PAH contamination source, and coke oven sources and wood combustion also contributed to the PAH contamination of the streams. This was further indicated by organic petrography analysis.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

Deliberative democracy meets democratised science: a deliberative systems approach to global environmental governance

The main achievements of the debates on deliberative democracy and democratised science are investigated in order to analyse the reasons, meanings and prospects for a democratisation of global environmental policy. A deliberative systems approach, which emphasises the need to explore how processes in societal spheres interact to shape the deliberative qualities of the system as a whole, is adopted. Although science plays a key role in this, its potential to enhance deliberative capacity has hardly been addressed in deliberative theories. The democratisation of science has potential to contribute to the democratisation of global environmental policy, in that it also shapes the potential of deliberative arrangements in the policy sphere. Deliberative arrangements within the policy sphere may stimulate the democratisation of science to different degrees.     

Investigating biodiversity trajectories using scenarios – Lessons from two contrasting agricultural landscapes

Agriculture is the major land use at a global scale. In addition to food production, multifunctionality of landscapes, including values and ecosystem services like biodiversity, recreation and culture, is now focus for management. This study explores how a scenario approach, involving different stakeholders, may help to improve landscape management for biodiversity conservation. Local farmers and executives at the County Administrative Board were invited to discuss rural development and conditions for farmland biodiversity in two Swedish landscapes. The potential biodiversity for three future land use scenarios for the two landscapes was discussed: nature conservation, outdoor recreation and energy production, and compared with current and historical landscapes in each region.Analyses of habitat areas, connectedness and landscape diversity suggested that the energy and recreation scenarios had a negative impact on farmland biodiversity, whereas the nature conservation scenario, the current and historically reconstructed landscapes had a higher potential for biodiversity. The farmers appreciated the nature conservation scenario, but also the energy production scenario and they highlighted the need of increased subsidies for management of biodiversity. The farmers in the high production area were less interested in nature quality per se. The executives had similar opinions as the farmers, but disagreed on the advantages with energy production, as this would be in conflict with the high biodiversity and recreational values. The local physical and socio-economical conditions differ between landscapes and potentially shaped the stakeholders emotional attachment to the local environment, their opinions and decisions on how to manage the land. We stress the importance of incorporating local knowledge, visions and regional prerequisites for different land uses in conservation, since site and landscape specific planning for biodiversity together with a flexible subsidy system are necessary to reach the conservation goals within EU.     

ESTIMATING REGIONAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH A SIMPLE SIMULATION MODEL1

A simple simulation model designed to monitor snow-packs of the central Sierra Nevada is described. The model estimates average snow water equivalent for rectangular subregions in the area. Static subregion characteristics, daily precipitation and mean and minimum air temperatures measured at three index stations are the only needed input values. A water balance technique simulates daily snowpack changes in each subregion. Reasonable basinwide water equivalent values are produced. The procedure should be useful for estimating snow water distribution in large mountainous watersheds.