International Workshop on Sustainable Forestry Management: Monitoring and Verification of Greenhouse Gases - Summary Statement

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Simulating the fate and transport of TCE from groundwater to indoor air

This work provides an exploratory analysis on the relative importance of various factors controlling the fate and transport of volatile organic contaminants (in this case, TCE) from a DNAPL source zone located below the water table and into the indoor air. The analysis is conducted using the multi-phase compositional model CompFlow Bio, with the base scenario problem geometry reminiscent of a field experiment conducted by Rivett [Rivett, M.O., (1995), Soil–gas signatures from volatile chlorinated solvents: Borden field experiments. Groundwater, 33(1), 84–98.] at the Borden aquifer where groundwater was observed to transport a contaminant plume a substantial distance without vertical mass transport of the contaminant across the capillary fringe and into the vadose zone. Results for the base scenario model indicate that the structure of the permeability field was largely responsible for deflecting the groundwater plume upward towards the capillary fringe, permitting aqueous phase diffusion to transport the TCE into the vadose zone. Alternative permeability realizations, generated as part of a Monte Carlo simulation process, at times deflected the groundwater plume downwards causing the extended thickness of the saturated zone to insulate the vadose zone from exposure to the TCE by upward diffusive transport. Comparison of attenuation coefficients calculated using the CompFlow Bio and Johnson and Ettinger [Johnson, P.C. and Ettinger, R.A., (1991), Heuristic model for predicting the intrusion rate of contaminant vapors into buildings. Environmental Science and Technology, 25, 1445–1452.] heuristic model exhibited fortuitous agreement for the base scenario problem geometry, with this agreement diverging for the alternative permeability realizations as well as when parameters such as the foundation slab fracture aperture, the indoor air pressure drop, the capillary fringe thickness, and the infiltration rate were varied over typical ranges.     

Froude scaling limitations in modeling of turbidity currents

The scaling problem associated with the modeling of turbidity currents has been recognized but is yet to be explored systematically. This paper presents an analysis of the dimensionless governing equations of turbidity currents to investigate the scale effect. Three types of flow conditions are considered: (i) conservative density current; (ii) purely depositional turbidity current; and (iii) mixed erosional/depositional turbidity current. Two controlling dimensionless numbers, the Froude number and the Reynolds number, appear in the non-dimensional governing equations. When densimetric Froude similarity is satisfied, the analysis shows that the results would be scale-invariant for conservative density current under the rough turbulent condition. In the case of purely depositional flows, truly scale-invariant results cannot be obtained, as the Reynolds-mediated scale effects appear in the bottom boundary conditions of the flow velocity and sediment fall velocity. However, the scale effect would be relatively modest. The Reynolds effect becomes more significant for erosional or mixed erosional/depositional turbidity currents as Reynolds-mediated scale effects also appear in the sediment entrainment relation. Numerical simulations have been conducted at three different scales by considering densimetric Froude scaling alone as well as combined densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarity. Simulation results confirm that although the scaling of densimetric Froude number alone can produce scale-invariable results for conservative density currents, variations occur in the case of turbidity currents. The results become scale invariant when densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarities are satisfied simultaneously.     

一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法

针对传统教与学算法在解决复杂多峰函数优化问题时,具有局部最优且搜索开发能力较差的缺点,提出了一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法,新算法为学员的每一维加入不同的教学因子,设计了基于学员均值比较的教师选择策略和向教师及学员学习的多学习策略。基于多个单峰和多峰函数的仿真结果表明,新算法跟传统的、改进的教与学算法相比,在稳定性、寻优精度和收敛速度方面更具优势。     

New directions for exploring the consequences of proactive behaviors: Introduction to the special issue

This special issue introduces new directions for exploring the consequences of proactive behaviors. The authors summarize the new scopes of consequences, new social contexts, and new methods in this exploration. They also identify several limitations of the existing literature and call for more future research in this stream.