A Watershed-based Cumulative Risk Impact Analysis: Environmental Vulnerability and Impact Criteria

Swine Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) have received much attention in recent years. As a result, a watershed-based screening tool, the Cumulative Risk Index Analysis (CRIA), was developed to assess the cumulative impacts of multiple CAFO facilities in a watershedsubunit. The CRIA formula calculates an index number based on: 1) the area of one or more facilities compared to the area of the watershed subunit, 2) the average of the environmental vulnerability criteria, and 3) the average of the industry-specific impact criteria. Each vulnerability or impact criterion is ranked on a 1 to 5 scale, with a low rank indicating low environmental vulnerability or impact and a high rank indicating high environmental vulnerability or impact. The individual criterion ranks, as well as the total CRIA score, can be used to focus the environmental analysis and facilitate discussions with industry, public, and other stakeholders in the Agency decision-making process.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Methane Ice Worms: Hesiocaeca methanicola Colonizing Fossil Fuel Reserves

 During a research cruise in July 1997 in the Gulf of Mexico we discovered a gas hydrate approximately 1 m thick and over 2 m in diameter which had recently breached the sea floor at a depth of 540 m. The hydrate surface visible from the submarine was considerably greater than that of any other reported hydrate. Two distinct color bands of hydrate were present in the same mound, and the entire exposed surface of the hydrate was infested (2500 individuals/m²) with 2 to 4 cm-long worms, since described as a new species, Hesiocaeca methanicola, in the polychaete family Hesionidae (Desbruyères and Toulmond 1998). H. methanicola tissue stable isotope values are consistent with a chemoautotrophic food source. No evidence of chemoautotrophic symbionts was detected, but geochemical data support the presence of abundant free living bacteria on the hydrate. The activities of the polychaetes, grazing on the hydrate bacteria and supplying oxygen to their habitats, appears to contribute to the dissolution of hydrates in surface sediments. Received: 16 August 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 19 January 2000     

A comparison of sensitivity analysis and error analysis based on a stream ecosystem model

When individual model parameters must be measured in field or laboratory experiments, the provision of feedback information for allocation of research efforts is an important function of modeling. Both sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo error analysis can be used to determine which parameters require intensified measurement effort. When both methods are applied to a stream ecosystem model, the assumptions of sensitivity analysis are violated if reasonable estimates of measurement errors on parameters are used. Sensitivity analysis estimates a linear relationship between a state variable and a parameter and largely ignores higher order effects.In the model investigated in this study, higher-order effects dominate prediction error, and the results of sensitivity analysis are misleading. It is suggested that the simple correlation coefficient derived from analysis of Monte Carlo simulations is a more reasonable way to rank model parameters according to their contribution to prediction uncertainty. For the stream model used in this study, halving variance on the four parameters, indicated as most important by sensitivity analysis, reduces prediction errors by only 2–6%. Halving variance on the four, completely different, parameters with the largest simple correlation coefficients reduces prediction errors by 17–31%.     

Harnessing place attachment for local climate mitigation? Hypothesising connections between broadening representations of place and readiness for change

Public engagement in local environmental planning and decision-making is often advocated on various grounds, both instrumental and normative. Yet in developed countries in the context of renewable energy infrastructure deployment, place attachment, place identity and place-protective action continue to be implicated in public objection. We set out an interdisciplinary change readiness hypothesis of specifically how local participatory scenario or visioning processes that include climate mitigation measures may support the mobilisation of place attachment for climate mitigation, including renewable energy deployment. We hypothesise that local visioning may support movement towards change readiness by helping to anchor unfamiliar social representations of low carbon energy infrastructure and new patterns of urban form in existing, more positive representations of localities and associated attachments. To this end, seeking ways to modify threat perceptions relating to climate change and renewable energy infrastructure is advocated as a key direction for study.     

Analysis of naturalistic driving videos of fleet services drivers to estimate driver error and potentially distracting behaviors as risk factors for rear-end versus angle crashes

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and odds of fleet driver errors and potentially distracting behaviors just prior to rear-end versus angle crashes.

Methods: Analysis of naturalistic driving videos among fleet services drivers for errors and potentially distracting behaviors occurring in the 6 s before crash impact. Categorical variables were examined using the Pearson's chi-square test, and continuous variables, such as eyes-off-road time, were compared using the Student's t-test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of a driver error or potentially distracting behavior being present in the seconds before rear-end versus angle crashes.

Results: Of the 229 crashes analyzed, 101 (44%) were rear-end and 128 (56%) were angle crashes. Driver age, gender, and presence of passengers did not differ significantly by crash type. Over 95% of rear-end crashes involved inadequate surveillance compared to only 52% of angle crashes (P < .0001). Almost 65% of rear-end crashes involved a potentially distracting driver behavior, whereas less than 40% of angle crashes involved these behaviors (P < .01). On average, drivers spent 4.4 s with their eyes off the road while operating or manipulating their cell phone. Drivers in rear-end crashes were at 3.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.73–5.44) times adjusted higher odds of being potentially distracted than those in angle crashes.

Conclusions: Fleet driver driving errors and potentially distracting behaviors are frequent. This analysis provides data to inform safe driving interventions for fleet services drivers. Further research is needed in effective interventions to reduce the likelihood of drivers' distracting behaviors and errors that may potentially reducing crashes.     

Principles for retrofitting coal burners for oxy-combustion

Experiments were performed in a 1.5 MW pilot-scale furnace to investigate the differences between air- and oxy-fired flame behavior from a pulverized coal oxy-research burner designed for flexible operating conditions. The flame behavior was characterized by recording video images of the flames and by measuring radiation intensity along the flame length. Various strategies relating air- and oxy-fired operation of the burner primary register were investigated where the oxy-fired burner primary mass, momentum and velocity were matched to the air-fired conditions. Matching either burner primary mass or momentum under oxy-fired conditions with air-fired conditions resulted in a flame stabilized within the quarl. Matching primary velocity with air-fired conditions resulted in a detached flame indicating a delay in flame ignition for the oxyfired conditions. A decrease in primary velocity of 13% was necessary in order to stabilize a flame within the quarl similar to the air-fired case. Additional experiments also showed a flame could be stabilized with no oxygen enrichment of the primary (～3 vol.%, dry O₂ in the primary). Experiments where oxygen was injected at the burner face indicated injection at the boundary of the primary and secondary flow paths strongly attach a flame and injection at the coal rich primary flow path increased the radiative intensity of the flame.     

Effects of an oil spill in a harbor assessed using biomarkers of exposure in eelpout

Oil spills occur commonly, and chemical compounds originating from oil spills are widespread in the aquatic environment. In order to monitor effects of a bunker oil spill on the aquatic environment, biomarker responses were measured in eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) sampled along a gradient in Göteborg harbor where the oil spill occurred and at a reference site, 2 weeks after the oil spill. Eelpout were also exposed to the bunker oil in a laboratory study to validate field data. The results show that eelpout from the Göteborg harbor are influenced by contaminants, especially polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), also during “normal” conditions. The bunker oil spill strongly enhanced the biomarker responses. Results show elevated ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activities in all exposed sites, but, closest to the oil spill, the EROD activity was partly inhibited, possibly by PAHs. Elevated DNA adduct levels were also observed after the bunker oil spill. Chemical analyses of bile revealed high concentrations of PAH metabolites in the eelpout exposed to the oil, and the same PAH metabolite profile was evident both in eelpout sampled in the harbor and in the eelpout exposed to the bunker oil in the laboratory study.     

A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.