Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.     

A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.     

Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers

The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed.     

Assessment of sampling and chemical analysis of source-separated organic household waste

The quality of the waste sampling procedure and chemical analysis was evaluated in a research program on characterization of organic waste obtained after disc screening of source-separated organic household waste. The sampling procedures focused on a truckload of waste and involved several steps of subsampling including shredding, mixing, blending, high-speed-blending, drying and milling prior to analysis of the organic waste with respect to ash content, crude fibers, crude fat, crude protein, sugar, starch, enzyme-digestible organic matter, P, N, C, H, S and calorific value. The statistical evaluation of the procedures involved 10 samples of the same truckload of waste obtained by splitting the sample at each level in the procedure according to a staggered, incomplete nested statistical design. Furthermore, one sample was analysed six times over a period of approximately one year. The statistical evaluation showed that no single step in the sampling procedure contributed with excessive variance and that the variance caused by the sampling procedure was approximately the same as the variance in the chemical analysis observed over a year. The variance varied with the analytical parameter but for most parameters the uncertainty was satisfactorily low (of the order of 3-10% expressed as the relative standard deviation, which is considered to be satisfactory for waste characterization).     

Environmental Impacts of a Secondary Lead Smelter in Landskrona, Southern Sweden

Scandinavia has one secondary lead smelter that recycles lead from approximately 85% of used car batteries in Scandinavia and which has been active since the 1940s. The smelter, situated in Landskrona, has undergone a comprehensive clean up programme during the last decade, during which time production has doubled, while at the same time discharges of dust and lead to the atmosphere have decreased.Top and depth soil samples were taken on a 0.5km×0.5Km grid throughout the city of Landskrona, which covers an area of approximately 15km². Samples were analysed by ICPAES for a number of elements including Pb, Zn, Cu, Cd, As, Sb and Hg. Road dust samples from selected sites were collected and similarly analysed. Blood samples were taken from 37 volunteer schoolchildren (aged 8–11) from two schools in Landskrona. House dust samples were taken from each child's home. Soil samples were taken from homes which had gardens, public and school play areas. Elevated heavy metal concentrations were found in close proximity to the secondary lead smelter, and this soil enrichment influences the whole of the town, modified to some extent by the prevailing wind. The smelter does not influence the soil lead concentration at distances greater than 3.5km, where the soil reflects the background value for the area.Road dust samples also show decreases in lead concentrations with distance from the smelter. The average level of lead in house dust was considerably lower than that found in Birmingham, UK. Blood lead levels in the child population ranged from 1.5–5.1gdl^–1, with a mean of 3.05gdl^–1, showing a distinct decrease from those measured in 1978–82. No significant difference in blood lead concentrations with distance of the home from the smelter, nor between attenders at the two schools was revealed in the limited number of children studied.     

Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d.

The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification, soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants, above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden, four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management on plant biodiversity in forested areas.     

Exaggerated orientation scatter of nocturnal passerine migrants close to breeding grounds: comparisons between seasons and latitudes

Using tracking radars, we investigated the variability of flight directions of long-distance nocturnal passerine migrants across seasons (spring versus autumn migration) and sites at the southern (56° N) and northern (68° N) ends of the Scandinavian Peninsula (Lund versus Abisko). Whilst most migrants at Lund are on passage to and from breeding sites in Fennoscandia, the majority of the migrants at Abisko are close to their breeding sites, and migration at Abisko thus to a large degree reflects initial departure from breeding sites (autumn) or final approach to breeding destinations (spring). The radar data were used to test predictions about differences in orientation and wind drift effects between adult and juvenile birds (a large proportion of autumn migrants consists of juvenile birds on their first journey), between situations far away from or near the goals and between different phases of migration (initial departure, en route passage, final approach to goal). The concentrations (both total and within-night concentrations) of flight directions differed significantly between seasons as well as sites, with the highest concentration at Lund in spring (mean vector length of track directions, r = 0.79) and lowest at Abisko during spring (r = 0.35). Partial wind drift and partial compensation were recorded at Lund, with a similar effect size in spring and autumn, whilst possible wind drift effects at Abisko were obscured by the large directional scatter at this site. The results from Lund support the prediction that the high proportion of juveniles in autumn contributes to increase the directional scatter during this season, whilst there was no support for predictions of differential wind drift effects between seasons and situations with different goal distances. The most striking and surprising result was the exceedingly large scatter of flight directions at Abisko, particularly in spring. We suggest that such an exaggerated scatter may be associated with final approach orientation, where migrants reach their specific goals from all various directions by final navigation within a more wide-ranging goal region. The larger scatter of autumn flight directions at Abisko compared to Lund may be due to exploratory flights in variable directions being more common at initial departure from breeding sites than later during migratory passage. These surprising results highlight the importance of studying and analysing orientation during final approach to (and initial departure from) migratory goals for understanding the orientation systems of migratory birds.     

Strain-related physiological and behavioral effects of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Skeletonema marinoi</Emphasis> on three common planktonic copepods

Three strains of the chain-forming diatom Skeletonema marinoi, differing in their production of polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUA) and nutritional food components, were used in experiments on feeding, egg production, hatching success, pellet production, and behavior of three common planktonic copepods: Acartia tonsa, Pseudocalanus elongatus, and Temora longicornis. The three different diatom strains (9B, 1G, and 7J) induced widely different effects on Acartia tonsa physiology, and the 9B strain induced different effects for the three copepods. In contrast, different strains induced no or small alterations in the distribution, swimming behavior, and turning frequency of the copepods. 22:6(n-3) fatty acid (DHA) and sterol content of the diet typically showed a positive effect on either egg production (A. tonsa) or hatching success (P. elongatus), while other measured compounds (PUA, other long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids) of the algae had no obvious effects. Our results demonstrate that differences between strains of a given diatom species can generate effects on copepod physiology, which are as large as those induced by different algae species or groups. This emphasizes the need to identify the specific characteristics of local diatoms together with the interacting effects of different mineral, biochemical, and toxic compounds and their potential implications on different copepod species.     

Concentrations of inorganic elements in bottled waters on the Swedish market

This study presents the concentrations of about 50 metals and ions in 33 different brands of bottled waters on the Swedish market. Ten of the brands showed calcium (Ca) concentrations ≤10 mg L⁻¹ and magnesium (Mg) levels <3 mg L⁻¹, implying very soft waters. Three of these waters had in addition low concentrations of sodium (Na; <7 mg L⁻¹), potassium (K; <3 mg L⁻¹) and bicarbonate (HCO₃ ≤31 mg L⁻¹). These brands were collected from barren districts. Nine of the brands were collected from limestone regions. They showed increased Ca-levels exceeding 50 mg L⁻¹ with a maximum of 289 mg L⁻¹. Corresponding Mg-levels were also raised in two brands exceeding 90 mg L⁻¹. Two soft and carbonated waters were supplemented with Na₂CO₃ and NaCl, resulting in high concentrations of Na (644 and 648 mg L⁻¹) and chloride (Cl; 204 and 219 mg L⁻¹). Such waters may make a substantial contribution to the daily intake of NaCl in high water consumers. The storage of carbonated drinking water in aluminum (Al) cans increased the Al-concentration to about 70 μg L⁻¹. Conclusion As there was a large variation in the material as regards concentrations of macro-elements such as Ca, Mg, Na, K and Cl. Supplementation with salts, e.g., Na₂CO₃, K₂ CO₃ and NaCl, can lead to increased concentrations of Na, K and Cl, as well as decreased ratios of Ca/Na and larger ratios of Na/K. Water with high concentrations of e.g., Ca and Mg, may make a substantial contribution to the daily intake of these elements in high water consumers. Al cans are less suited for storage of carbonated waters, as the lowered pH-values may dissolve Al. The levels of potentially toxic metals in the studied brands were generally low.     

MHC and fertilization success in the Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus)

Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are remarkably polymorphic. Several selection mechanisms have been invoked to account for this diversity, including disassortative mating preferences. In addition, eggs may discriminate between sperm based on MHC. To investigate the effects of MHC-genotype on fertilization success, we obtained mature gametes from ripe Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) males and females captured on spawning grounds. The eggs of each female were divided into two batches, and by letting each of 2 males fertilize 1 of the batches, we obtained a total of 36 half-sibling batch-pairs. The semen was diluted to ensure that the two males in each half-sibling batch-pair contributed with the same number of sperm cells. We found that MHC-heterozygous males had significantly higher fertilization success than MHC-homozygous males and neither initial spermatocrit, sperm motility nor swimming velocity co-varied with difference in fertilization success. There was no effect of female genotype or female-male MHC-similarity on fertilization success. However, one MHC-allele was associated with increased fertilization success. It seems plausible that the difference in fertilization success between homo- and heterozygous males may be due to MHC-dependent sperm selection by the ovum.Communicated by M. Abrahams