Robust optimization evaluation of reliance on locally produced foods

While local food production may be beneficial in terms of developing the local economy and reducing greenhouse gases from transportation, sustainability strategies focused on local food production may generate their own risks due to yield variability. We have developed a robust optimization (RO) model to determine the minimum amount of land (cropland and pasture) required to grow food items that would satisfy a local population’s (accounting for gender and age) calorie and nutrient needs. This model has been applied to Boone County, Missouri, which has a population of approximately 170,000. Boone County is 1790 km², with 16% of the land defined as cropland and 30% defined as pasture. The model includes 27 nutrients from 17 potential foods that could be produced: six fruits and vegetables, five grains and six animal-sourced foods. Yield estimates are based on the predominate methods of agriculture in the USA. We first run our model assuming no variability, using the midpoint yield estimates. Then, to quantify uncertainty in yield for different food types, we use historical yield data over 10 years to estimate this variability and run our RO model under these variability estimates. We compare the two model results to illustrate the impact of data uncertainty on meeting sustainable local food for communities. Solutions suggest that nutrition needs can be met for the Boone County population within the land area defined.     

Temporal variance of disturbance did not affect diversity and structure of a marine fouling community in north-eastern New Zealand

Natural heterogeneity in ecological parameters, like population abundance, is more widely recognized and investigated than variability in the processes that control these parameters. Experimental ecologists have focused mainly on the mean intensity of predictor variables and have largely ignored the potential to manipulate variances in processes, which can be considered explicitly in experimental designs to explore variation in causal mechanisms. In the present study, the effect of the temporal variance of disturbance on the diversity of marine assemblages was tested in a field experiment replicated at two sites on the northeast coast of New Zealand. Fouling communities grown on artificial settlement substrata experienced disturbance regimes that differed in their inherent levels of temporal variability and timing of disturbance events, while disturbance intensity was identical across all levels. Additionally, undisturbed assemblages were used as controls. After 150 days of experimental duration, the assemblages were then compared with regard to their species richness, abundance and structure. The disturbance effectively reduced the average total cover of the assemblages, but no consistent effect of variability in the disturbance regime on the assemblages was detected. The results of this study were corroborated by the outcomes from simultaneous replicate experiments carried out in each of eight different biogeographical regions around the world.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Swimming and feeding by the scyphomedusa Chrysaora quinquecirrha

The semaeostome scyphomedusa, Chrysaora quinquecirrha (Desor, 1848), is an abundant and important planktonic predator in estuaries and coastal waters of the eastern USA during the summer. We videotaped free-swimming medusae in the laboratory and in the field in order to determine the relationship between swimming motions and prey encounter with capture surfaces. Medusae were collected from the Choptank River (Chesapeake Bay) in September 1992 and in the Niantic River, Connecticut, USA in July 1994. We used newly hatched Artemia sp. nauplii and fluorescein dye to trace water motions around swimming medusae. Swimming results in a pulsed series of toroids which travel along the medusan oral arms and tentacles. Prey are entrained in this flow and the location of naupliar encounter was influenced by the phase of the pulsation cycle during which entrainment occurred. Flow-field velocities, measured by tracking particles adjacent to the bell margin during contraction, increased with bell diameter. Received: 29 March 1997 / Accepted: 11 April 1997     

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.     

Conservation of biodiversity through taxonomy,data publication,and collaborative infrastructures

Taxonomy is the foundation of biodiversity science because it furthers discovery of new species. Globally, there have never been so many people involved in naming species new to science. The number of new marine species described per decade has never been greater. Nevertheless, it is estimated that tens of thousands of marine species, and hundreds of thousands of terrestrial species, are yet to be discovered; many of which may already be in specimen collections. However, naming species is only a first step in documenting knowledge about their biology, biogeography, and ecology. Considering the threats to biodiversity, new knowledge of existing species and discovery of undescribed species and their subsequent study are urgently required. To accelerate this research, we recommend, and cite examples of, more and better communication: use of collaborative online databases; easier access to knowledge and specimens; production of taxonomic revisions and species identification guides; engagement of nonspecialists; and international collaboration. “Data‐sharing” should be abandoned in favor of mandated data publication by the conservation science community. Such a step requires support from peer reviewers, editors, journals, and conservation organizations. Online data publication infrastructures (e.g., Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Ocean Biogeographic Information System) illustrate gaps in biodiversity sampling and may provide common ground for long‐term international collaboration between scientists and conservation organizations.     

Flow and feeding by swimming scyphomedusae

The mechanical basis of prey capture by scyphomedusae has been largely ignored, despite the importance of these predators in a variety of planktonic ecosystems. Interactions between swimming, fluid motions, and prey capture were examined during 1991–1992 for a species from the three scyphozoan orders having planktonic medusae: Rhizostomeae, Stomolophus meleagris Agassiz, 1862; Coronatae, Linuche unguiculata (Schwartz, 1788); and Semaeostomeae, Cyanea capillata (Linnaeus, 1758). All three species used flow created during bell pulsation to capture prey, but the type of flow used for prey capture and the capture surface morphology were different for each species. The mechanics of capture by these species of diverse morphology and taxonomic affinity suggests that the use of bell pulsation-induced flow for prey entrainment and capture is widespread among the scyphomedusae.     

Morphology,fluid motion and predation by the scyphomedusa Aurelia aurita

Although medusan predators play demonstrably important roles in a variety of marine ecosystems, the mechanics of prey capture and, hence, prey selection, have remained poorly defined. A review of the literature describing the commonly studied medusa Aurelia aurita (Linnaeus 1758) reveals no distinct patterns of prey selectivity and suggests that A. aurita is a generalist and feeds unselectively upon available zooplankton. We examined the mechanics of prey capture by A. aurita using video methods to record body and fluid motions. Medusae were collected between February and June in 1990 and 1991 from Woods Hole, Massachusetts and Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA. Tentaculate A. aurita create fluid motions during swimming which entrain prey and bring them into contact with tentacles. We suggest that this mechanism dominates prey selection by A. aurita. In this case, we predict that medusae of a specific diameter will positively select prey with escape speeds slower than the flow velocities at their bell margins. Negatively selected prey escape faster than the medusan flow velocity draws them to capture surfaces. Faster prey will be captured by larger medusac because flow field velocity is a function of bell diameter. On the basis of prey escape velocities and flow field velocities of A. aurita with diameters of 0.8 to 7.1 cm, we predict that A. aurita will select zooplankton such as barnacle nauplii and some slow swimming hydromedusae, while faster copepods will be negatively selected.