Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Repellent scent-marking of flowers by a guild of foraging bumblebees (Bombus spp.)

We have found that foraging bumblebees (Bombus hortorum, B. pascuorum, B. pratorum and B.␣terrestris) not only avoid flowers of Symphytum officinale that have recently been visited by conspecifics but also those that have been recently visited by heterospecifics. We propose that the decision whether to reject or accept a flower is influenced by a chemical odour that is left on the corolla by a forager, which temporarily repels subsequent foragers. Honeybees and carpenter bees have previously been shown to use similar repellent forage-marking scents. We found that flowers were repellent to other bumblebee foragers for approximately 20 min and also that after this time nectar levels in S. officinale flowers had largely replenished. Thus bumblebees could forage more efficiently by avoiding flowers with low rewards. Flowers to which extracts of tarsal components were applied were more often rejected by wild B. terrestris workers than flowers that had head extracts applied, which in turn were more often rejected than flowers that had body extracts applied. Extracts from four Bombus species were equally repellent to foragers. The sites of production of the repellent scent and its evolutionary origins are discussed. Received: 24 November 1997 / Accepted after revision: 8 March 1998     

Importance of individual and environmental variation for invasive species spread: a spatial integral projection model

Plant survival, growth, and flowering are size dependent in many plant populations but also vary among individuals of the same size. This individual variation, along with variation in dispersal caused by differences in, e.g., seed release height, seed characteristics, and wind speed, is a key determinant of the spread rate of species through homogeneous landscapes. Here we develop spatial integral projection models (SIPMs) that include both demography and dispersal with continuous state variables. The advantage of this novel approach over discrete-stage spread models is that the effect of variation in plant size and size-dependent vital rates can be studied at much higher resolution. Comparing Neubert-Caswell matrix models to SIPMs allowed us to assess the importance of including individual variation in the models. As a test case we parameterized a SIPM with previously published data on the invasive monocarpic thistle Carduus nutans in New Zealand. Spread rate (c*) estimates were 34% lower than for standard spatial matrix models and stabilized with as few as seven evenly distributed size classes. The SIPM allowed us to calculate spread rate elasticities over the range of plant sizes, showing the size range of seedlings that contributed most to c* through their survival, growth and reproduction. The annual transitions of these seedlings were also the most important ones for local population growth (lambda). However, seedlings that reproduced within a year contributed relatively more to c* than to lambda. In contrast, plants that grow over several years to reach a large size and produce many more seeds, contributed relatively more to lambda than to c*. We show that matrix models pick up some of these details, while other details disappear within wide size classes. Our results show that SIPMs integrate various sources of variation much better than discrete-stage matrix models. Simpler, heuristic models, however, remain very valuable in studies where the main goal is to investigate the general impact of a life history stage on population dynamics. We conclude with a discussion of future extensions of SIPMs, including incorporation of continuous time and environmental drivers.     

Worker drift and egg dumping by queens in wild Bombus terrestris colonies

Wild bumblebee colonies are hard to find and often inaccessible, so there have been few studies of the genetic structure of bumblebees within natural colonies, and hence, it is not clear how frequently events such as worker reproduction, worker drift and queen usurpation take place. This study aimed to quantify the occurrence of natal-worker reproduction, worker drift and drifter reproduction within 14 wild colonies of Bombus terrestris in Central Scotland. Four unlinked microsatellites were used to identify patterns of relatedness of the colonies’ adults and broods. In colonies with queens (queenright colonies), worker reproduction accounted for just 0.83 % of males, increasing to 12.11 % in queenless colonies. Four colonies contained a total of six workers which were not daughters of the queen, and were assumed to be drifters, and four male offspring of drifters. Drifting is clearly not common and results in few drifter offspring overall, although drifters produced approximately seven times more offspring per capita than workers that remained in their natal colony. Unexpectedly, two colonies contained clusters of sister workers and juvenile offspring that were not sisters to the rest of the adults or brood found in the colonies, demonstrating probable egg dumping by queens. A third colony contained a queen which was not a sister or daughter to the other bees in the colony. Although usurping of bumblebee colonies by queens in early season is well documented, this appears to be the first record of egg dumping, and it remains unclear whether it is being carried out by old queens or newly mated young queens.     

Temporal and spatial infection dynamics indicate recognition events in the early hours of a dinoflagellate/coral symbiosis

The obligate symbiotic relationship between dinoflagellates, Symbiodinium spp. and reef building corals is re-established each host generation. The solitary coral Fungia scutaria Lamarck 1801 harbors a single algal strain, Symbiodinium ITS2 type C1f (homologous strain) during adulthood. Previous studies have shown that distinct algal ITS2 types in clade C correlate with F. scutaria—Symbiodinium specificity during the onset of symbiosis in the larval stage. The present study examined the early specificity events in the onset of symbiosis between F. scutaria larvae and Symbiodinium spp., by looking at the temporal and spatial infection dynamics of larvae challenged with different symbiont types. The results show that specificity at the onset of symbiosis was mediated by recognition events during the initial symbiont—host physical contact before phagocytosis, and by subsequent cellular events after the symbionts were incorporated into host cells. Moreover, homologous and heterologous Symbiodinium sp. strains did not exhibit the same pattern of localization within larvae. When larvae were infected with homologous symbionts (C1f), ~70% of the total acquired algae were found in the equatorial area of the larvae, between the oral and aboral ends, 21 h after inoculation. In contrast, no spatial difference in algal localization was observed in larvae infected with heterologous symbionts. This result provides evidence of functional differences among gastrodermal cells, during development of the larvae. The cells in the larval equator function as nutritive phagocytes, and also appear to function as a region of enhanced symbiont acquisition in F. scutaria.     

The city as a refuge for insect pollinators

Research on urban insect pollinators is changing views on the biological value and ecological importance of cities. The abundance and diversity of native bee species in urban landscapes that are absent in nearby rural lands evidence the biological value and ecological importance of cities and have implications for biodiversity conservation. Lagging behind this revised image of the city are urban conservation programs that historically have invested in education and outreach rather than programs designed to achieve high‐priority species conservation results. We synthesized research on urban bee species diversity and abundance to determine how urban conservation could be repositioned to better align with new views on the ecological importance of urban landscapes. Due to insect pollinators’ relatively small functional requirements—habitat range, life cycle, and nesting behavior—relative to larger mammals, we argue that pollinators put high‐priority and high‐impact urban conservation within reach. In a rapidly urbanizing world, transforming how environmental managers view the city can improve citizen engagement and contribute to the development of more sustainable urbanization.     

Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

Assessing effects of non-native crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of non-native predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of non-native species. We examined the effect of non-native crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.     

New Technology for Conducting Radiation Hazard Assessments: The Application of the Underwater Radiation Spectral Identification System (URSIS) at the Massachusetts Bay Industrial Waste (U.S.A.)

The Underwater Radiation Spectral Identification System (URSIS) is a portable spectrometer used for the in situ detection of radioactivity in the marine environment. This paper reports on the first time application of this technology to assess, in a preliminary manner, the potential radiation threat to the public and environment at an aquatic disposal site – the Massachusetts Bay Industrial Waste Site (IWS). Utilizing the meneuvering capabilities of ROV and manned submersible vehicles, the URSIS was successfully positioned close (5–10 cm) to waste containers for a period sufficient to detect, in real time, the presence of radioactive materials. Spectral data from 45 individual targets indicated that the radionuclides present in sediments which draped or partially buried waste containers were consistent with natural background concentrations. No man-made radionuclides were detected at any of the target or background measurement locations. These data support the conclusion that low-level radiation does not pose an imminent and widespread human health or ecological threat in Massachusetts Bay.