Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

Mating System and Sexual Selection in the Scorpionfly Panorpa vulgaris (Mecoptera: Panorpidae)

Panorpa vulgaris   has become a model insect for testing theories of sexual selection. This contribution summarizes that which has been learned in recent years and presents new data that clearly show that the mating system of P. vulgaris is not simply a resource-defense polygyny, as has previously been thought. In P. vulgaris neither the pattern in food exploitation nor the ratio of variance in the lifetime reproductive success of the two sexes is in accordance with that expected in resource defense polygynous mating systems. Lifetime mating duration is the most important proximate determinant of male fitness. Males employing alternative mating tactics obtain copulations of varying duration in relation to the following sequence: saliva secretion  1  food offering  1  no gift. The number of salivary masses which males provide to females during their lifetime is significantly correlated with the lifetime condition index. The condition index depends on the fighting prowess of males and their ability to find food items. Thus saliva secretion of Panorpa is considered a Zahavian handicap, which can serve as an honest quality indicator used by mating females. Our results confirm four main predictions of the indicator model of the theory of sexual selection: (a) the indicator signals high ecological quality of its bearer, (b) the indicator value increases with phenotypic quality, (c) the indicator value is positively correlated with the genetic quality affecting offspring fitness in a natural selection context, and (d) the quality indicator is more costly for low- than for high-quality individuals. The evolutionary consequences of the mating pattern and the sperm competition mechanism in P. vulgaris are discussed in the context the way in which sexual selection creates and maintains sperm mixing and the evolution of a promiscuous mating system.     

The vulnerability of hydropower production in the Zambezi River Basin to the impacts of climate change and irrigation development

The Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa is relatively undeveloped from both a hydropower and irrigated agriculture perspective, despite the existence of the large Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. Accelerating economic growth increases the potential for competition for water between hydropower and irrigated agriculture, and climate change will add additional stresses to this system. The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of major existing and planned new hydropower plants to changes in climate and upstream irrigation demand. Our results show that Kariba is highly vulnerable to a drying climate, potentially reducing average electricity generation by 12 %. Furthermore, the expansion of Kariba generating capacity is unlikely to deliver the expected increases in production even under a favourable climate. The planned Batoka Gorge plant may also not be able to reach the anticipated production levels from the original feasibility study. Cahora Bassa’s expansion is viable under a wetting climate, but its potential is less likely to be realised under a drying climate. The planned Mphanda Nkuwa plant can reach expected production levels under both climates if hydropower is given water allocation priority, but not if irrigation is prioritised, which is likely. For both Cahora Bassa and Mphanda Nkuwa, prioritising irrigation demand over hydropower could severely compromise these plants’ output. Therefore, while climate change is the most important overall driver of variation in hydropower potential, increased irrigation demand will also have a major negative impact on downstream plants in Mozambique. This implies that climate change and upstream development must be explicitly incorporated into both project and system expansion planning.     

Scaling and Mapping Regional Calculations of Soil Chemical Weathering Rates in Sweden

Weathering rates of base cations are crucial in critical load calculations and assessments of sustainable forestry. The weathering rate on a single site with detailed geological data can be modelled using the PROFILE model. For environmental assessments on a regional scale, the weathering rates for sites are scaled into regional maps. The step from sites to regional level requires focus on the spatial variation of weathering rates. In this paper, a method is presented by which weathering rates are calculated for 25589 Swedish sites with total elemental analysis for the soil. Based on a part of the results, a methodology for creating area covering maps by geostatistical analysis and kriging is described. A normative reconstruction model was used to transform total elemental analysis to mineralogy. Information from the Swedish Forest Inventory database and other databases were used to derive texture and other important information for the sites, e.g. climate, deposition and vegetation data. The calculated weathering rates show a regional pattern that indicates possibilities for interpolation of data in large parts of Sweden. Geostatistical analysis of an area in southern Sweden shows different properties for different base cations. Kriging was performed for potassium to demonstrate the method. It was concluded that different base cations and different regions have to be analysed separately, in order to optimise the kriging method.     

Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d.

The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification, soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants, above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden, four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management on plant biodiversity in forested areas.     

Sensitivity of stand dynamics to grazing in mixed Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pubescens forests: A modelling study

Only recently, studies of forest succession have started to include the effects of browsing by wild or domestic ungulates. We aim to contribute to this topic by analysing the influence of goat grazing on the long-term coexistence of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) in the low-elevation forests of an inner-Alpine dry valley. The forest gap model ForClim was first adapted to these site conditions by examining the site-dependent sensitivity of the model with regard to the species-specific parameterisation of the drought tolerance as well as the light demand of establishing and adult trees. In a second step, the behaviour of the model was investigated with respect to different grazing intensities and species-specific browsing susceptibilities. The last step was the application of a grazing scenario based on forest history, with 150 years of heavy browsing (by goats) at the beginning of the simulated forest succession, followed by less intensive grazing pressure.