Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Higher soybean production using honeybee and wild pollinators, a sustainable alternative to pesticides and autopollination

This is the first report showing that using honeybee (Apis mellifera) and wild pollinators complementary pollination can enhance soybean productivity (Glycine max). Current industrial production of soybean involves autopollination and high loads of pesticides. Therefore, growers have neglected possible biotic pollination despite suggestions that soybean benefit from insect pollinators. Reports advocating possible biotic pollination are based on experiments where bees are caged with flowering plants and the absence of pesticides, thus not in field conditions. Therefore, here we compared in field conditions soybean yield produced (1) independently of biotic pollinators, (2) with wild pollinators and (3) with honeybee colonies. Results showed an increase of +6.34 % of soybean yield in areas where wild pollinators had free access to flowers. The introduction of honeybee colonies further raised the yield of +18.09 %. Our findings therefore show that, though soybean is autogamous, allowing pollination by wild pollinators leads to higher yields. Moreover, adding honeybee mitigates pollination deficits and improves yield compared to current practices.     

Influence of alternate reproductive tactics and pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection on paternity and offspring performance in a lizard

Sexual selection theory predicts different optima for multiple mating in males and females. We used mating experiments and genetic paternity testing to disentangle pre- and postcopulatory mechanisms of sexual selection and alternate reproductive tactics in the highly promiscuous lizard Eulamprus heatwolei. Both sexes mated multiply: 30–60 % of clutches were sired by two to four fathers, depending on the experiment. Larger males sired more offspring when we allowed male contest competition: 52 % of large males but only 14 % of small males sired at least one offspring. In the absence of male contest competition, females mated promiscuously and there was no large male advantage: 80 % of large males and 90 % of small males sired at least one offspring, and there was no evidence for last-male precedence. Multiple mating did not yield obvious direct or indirect benefits to females. E. heatwolei represents a complex system in which males attempt to improve their fertility success by limiting rivals from access to females and through adopting alternate reproductive tactics. Conversely, females exhibit no obvious precopulatory mate choice but may influence fitness through postcopulatory means by either promoting sperm competition or through cryptic female choice. Our results support the hypothesis that female multiple mating in nonavian reptiles is best explained by the combined effect of mate encounter frequency and high benefits to males but low costs to females.     

Characterization of humic-rich hydrocolloids and their metal species by means of competing ligand and metal exchange--an on-site approach

An improved on-site characterization of humic-rich hydrocolloids and their metal species in aquatic environments was the goal of the present approach. Both ligand exchange with extreme chelators (diethylenetetraaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA), ethylendiaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA)) and metal exchange with strongly competitive cations (Cu(II) were used on-site to characterize the conditional stability and availability of colloidal metal species in a humic-rich German bogwater lake (Venner Moor, Münsterland). A mobile time-controlled tangential-flow ultrafiltration technique (cut-off: 1 kDa) was applied to differentiate operationally between colloidal metal species and free metal ions, respectively. DOC (dissolved organic carbon) and metal determinations were carried out off-site using a home-built carbon analyzer and conventional ICP-OES (inductively-coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry), respectively. From the metal exchange equilibria obtained on-site the kinetic and thermodynamic stability of the original metal species (Fe, Mn, Zn) could be characterized. Conditional exchange constants Kex obtained from aquatic metal species and competitive Cu(II) ions follow the order Mn > Zn > > Fe. Obviously, Mn and Zn bound to humic-rich hydrocolloids are very strongly competed by Cu(II) ions, in contrast to Fe which is scarcely exchangeable. The exchange of aquatic metal species (e.g. Fe) by DTPA/EDTA exhibited relatively slow kinetics but rather high metal availabilities, in contrast to their Cu(II) exchange.     

Electronic scraps--recovering of valuable materials from parallel wire cables

Every year, the number of discarded electro-electronic products is increasing. For this reason recycling is needed, to avoid wasting non-renewable natural resources. The objective of this work is to study the recycling of materials from parallel wire cable through unit operations of mineral processing. Parallel wire cables are basically composed of polymer and copper. The following unit operations were tested: grinding, size classification, dense medium separation, electrostatic separation, scrubbing, panning, and elutriation. It was observed that the operations used obtained copper and PVC concentrates with a low degree of cross contamination. It was concluded that total liberation of the materials was accomplished after grinding to less than 3 mm, using a cage mill. Separation using panning and elutriation presented the best results in terms of recovery and cross contamination.     

‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon, Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

Does information of predators influence general wariness?

Antipredator behavior includes several qualitatively distinct activities, but few studies have determined the degree to which these activities are independent. If behaviors are not independent, then the nature of the relationship would illustrate potential performance constraints. We studied crimson rosellas (Platycercus elegans) and first focused on acoustic predator discrimination. We measured time allocation before and after playback of one of three experimental treatments (peregrine falcons—Falco peregrinus, wedge-tailed eagles—Aquila audax, and crimson rosellas) to determine whether or not rosellas discriminated predators from non-predators, and specifically whether or not they discriminated large from small predators. We then focused on the decision to flee. We experimentally approached subjects and measured the distance at which they oriented to us (alert distance) and the distance at which they fled (flight initiation distance; FID). We found that rosellas could distinguish among predators; however, there was no effect on general wariness as measured by FID. These two processes of antipredator behavior may, thus, be independent.     

Differential blood counting in fish as a non-destructive biomarker of water contamination exposure

Differential white blood cell counting was performed on blood from the fish species Oreochromis niloticus and was used as an in situ indicator of the species’ exposure to contamination. Ten young fish were collected in an area influenced by the discharge of effluents and from a fish farm (control group). The fish were anesthetized and caudal puncture was used to collect the blood. Differential white blood cell counting was performed, as well as the counting of total leukocytes and thrombocytes (in 2000 cells). Physicochemical parameters of the water from both sites were analyzed. The water from the polluted area was found to have high conductivity and low levels of dissolved oxygen, factors that indicate poor environmental quality. Fish collected from the polluted site presented higher percentages of eosinophils and monocytes and fewer thrombocytes because of exposure to pollution and hypoxic conditions. The differential white blood cell count represents a suitable biomarker of environmental health and provides a tool for biomonitoring water quality.     

Predicting occurrence of juvenile shark habitat to improve conservation planning

Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km² of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs.     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.