9.
The degree at which tropical forests are exposed to human pressure is spatially dependent. Population density, proximity to
roads, terrain slope, logging activities and land distribution projects are well known factors inducing deforestation and
forest degradation in Latin America. Using expert knowledge to weight these threat factors and a Geographical Information
System for spatial modeling, a multi-criteria analysis procedure is presented, that allows stratifying a study region in categories
of deforestation threat. The procedure was implemented in the Central Volcanic Mountain Range Conservation Area (CVMRCA) in
Costa Rica with the purpose of finding areas with a combination of physical and socioeconomic characteristics that is particularly
predisposing to a high probability of deforestation. To validate the map, the CVMRCA was stratified in categories of deforestation
risk, and the result was superposed to historical deforestation data of the period 1986–1996. The good correlation between
risk category and historical deforestation (
r = 0.91,
p < 0.001) indicates that the map can be used as a decision support tool for defining priority areas for conservation action.
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