技术变化模拟及其在气候政策模型中的应用

技术变化是应对气候变化问题的关键。对技术变化的模拟和分析能够识别技术变化的作用．在评估减排成本以及确定减排目标时起到重要作用。但是早期的气候政策模型通常将技术变化视为非经济的外生变量，因而无法对技术变化的起因和效果做深入分析。近年来的气候政策模型则开始逐渐利用内生方法模拟技术变化。在介绍内生技术变化的概念及与传统的外生技术变化的区别的基础上，重点介绍和评述研发投入和技术学习这两种主要的内生技术变化模拟方法的原理、特点以及如何在不同的气候政策模型中得到应用。但是现有建模方法无法表征技术变化过程中的动态性、不确定性等特征，因而传统的建模方法需要扩展到一个更为综合的框架并需要更坚实的实证研究基础上。基于该框架介绍内生技术变化模拟方法的未来可能拓展。     

Analysis of Environmental and Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Population Longevity Level at County Level in China

INTRODUCTIONIn recent thirty years, due to the decreasing fertility andincreasing life expectancy, China's population is aging ata very rapid pace and the elderly population size is keepingon growing. During the dramatic aging progress, the oldestold group in China is catching our eyes. More and moreold people of China are becoming the oldest old. Theextremely old population (aged 80 and above) is increasingat 5.1% annually, while the old population above 65 isincreasing at 2.9%, and the…     

A Marine Pollution Study of Northeast Coastal Water Off Taiwan Island

The coastal water of northeast Taiwan island, called 'Yin-Yang Hai' for its distinct yellow colour compared with blue offshore water, was investigated from 1989 to 1990 by the authors. Biological study showed the dominant species of plankton to be Copepoda, Cladocera, planktonic eggs and Diatoma. Dominant species of benthos were young crabs, Amphipoda and Annelida, with Amphipoda usually occurring in heavily polluted areas. Heavy metal data showed that the concentration of copper was high. the copper and iron concentration in algae of the intertidal zone was also high. the concentrations of iron and copper in inshore water were also higher than in offshore water. By comparison of the pH and salinity distribution of this area, we conclude that this coastal water has been polluted by acid waste water from coastal industry. the suspended solids concentration in sea water is high. Flocculation occurring at the boundary of fresh and saline water might be a reason for the distinct yellow colour of the water of this area. Further study is required.     

Study on cooperative strategies of rural water environment governance PPP project between companies and farmers from the perspective of evolutionary game

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The PPP mode of rural water environment governance was conducive to attracting social capital for giving full play to the decisive role of the market...     

长江中下游环境DNA宏条形码生物多样性检测技术初步研究

长江生物多样性在人为影响下面临严重威胁,物种监测是生物多样性保护的基础,为完善长江水生态监测体系,实现高效无损伤的物种监测,在长江中下游干流3个江段（新滩、安庆和芜湖）采集水样,建立长江水样环境DNA宏条形码物种检测体系并评估其有效性.结果表明:①长江中下游环境DNA宏条形码检测到32个物种,包括20种鱼类、1种水生哺乳动物（长江江豚）和11种陆生动物,其中鱼类物种包括鲤形目、鲇形目、鲈形目和鲱形目,其种数占鱼类总种数的比例分别为60%、25%、10%和5%.②长江中下游渔获物中资源量居首位的鲤形目在环境DNA调查中序列数最多,占鱼类总序列的96.2%,其次为鲱形目（占比为3.5%）,鲇形目和鲈形目占比较低,分别为0.2%和0.1%,4个类目序列相对丰度与渔获物种资源量组成差异较大.③环境DNA调查次数约占传统渔获物调查次数的几十至几百分之一,采样时间不足努力量最少的渔获物调查的1%,检测到的鱼类种数为传统调查总数的31%~49%.④安庆采样点位于长江中下游长江江豚密度最高的江段,其环境DNA检出率和序列相对丰度在3个采样点中均最高.研究显示:长江水样环境DNA包含水陆复合生态系统的生物多样性信息,利用水样环境DNA宏条形码可检测不同类群的水生和陆生物种;对于鱼类物种检测,环境DNA宏条形码比传统调查方法效率更高,可对传统调查结果进行补充;环境DNA宏条形码生物多样性检测主要受分子标记体系和核酸序列数据库限制,获取全面的物种多样性和资源量信息需要对检测分析方法进行进一步完善.      

北京市气温与黑碳和PM2.5对疾病死亡影响的交互效应

通过收集北京市2010~2016年逐日呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡数据、污染物（BC、PM_2.5、SO₂、O₃和NO₂）日均浓度资料以及同期的气象资料,采用广义相加模型（GAMs）中的主效应模型、非参数二元响应模型和温度分层模型探讨了北京市气温、PM_2.5和BC单效应,以及气温与PM_2.5和BC交互作用分别对呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响.单效应分析结果表明,气温与两种疾病死亡人数的累计暴露-反应关系均呈“J”型分布特征,最适温度为24℃;累计滞后一天情况下PM_2.5和BC的健康效应均最显著,此时PM_2.5和BC浓度每升高四分位间距（IQR）,呼吸系统疾病死亡人数超额增加百分比（ER）分别为2.21%和1.80%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为2.02%和1.48%.交互作用的研究结果表明,高温与高浓度的PM_2.5（或BC）对疾病死亡的影响存在协同效应,且高温条件下BC对疾病死亡影响的健康风险大于PM_2.5,当气温大于24℃时,BC和PM_2.5浓度每升高IQR对应的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数ER分别为6.22%和6.17%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为5.01%和3.97%.虽然BC只占PM_2.5的一部分,但BC对人群健康的影响不容忽视,应该引起足够的重视.     

矿山排水污染稻田土壤胶体对砷的吸附研究

为研究矿山排水污染土壤胶体对砷的吸附影响,文章以高砷污染区和背景区土壤的胶体在不同的pH、离子强度以及好氧/厌氧淹水条件下对As(Ⅴ)的吸附进行对比试验。结果表明:土壤胶体对As(Ⅴ)的吸附量随pH的增大而减少,且污染区胶体比背景区胶体对As(Ⅴ)的吸附量大;离子强度越大,胶体对As(Ⅴ)的吸附量越大,Ca(NO_3)_2浓度从0.001 mol/L增至0.1 mol/L时,污染区与背景区胶体对As(Ⅴ)的吸附量分别增加了30.57%、50.25%;厌氧淹水后的胶体对As(Ⅴ)的吸附量低于好氧条件下的胶体,解吸量较高,且厌氧淹水后污染区胶体与背景区胶体相比无明显吸附优势,而好氧条件下污染区胶体的解吸率低于背景区胶体,说明厌氧淹水后的胶体不易吸附且易释放As(Ⅴ)。因此,低p H和高离子强度以及好氧的条件有利于土壤胶体对砷的吸附。     

Effect of TiO2 nanoparticle aggregation on marine microalgae Isochrysis galbana

TiO_2 nanoparticles(NPs) could adversely impact aquatic ecosystems. However, the aggregation of these NPs could attenuate this effect. In this work, the biological effects of TiO_2 NPs on a marine microalgae Isochrysis galbana were investigated. The aggregation kinetics of TiO_2 NPs under different conditions was also investigated to determine and understand these effects. Results showed that, though TiO_2 NPs had no obvious impact on the size and reproducibility of algal cells under testing conditions, they caused a negative effect on algal chlorophyll, which led to a reduction in photosynthesis. Furthermore, fast aggregation of TiO_2 NPs occurred under all conditions, especially at the pH close to the p Hzpc. Increasing ionic strength and NP concentration also enhanced the aggregation rate.The aggregation and the following sedimentation of TiO_2 NPs reduced their adverse effects on I. galbana.     

Adsorption of zinc on manganite(γ-MnOOH): particle concentration effect and adsorption reversibility

The adsorption and desorption processes of Zn(Ⅱ) on τ-MnOOH as a function of particle concentrations (Cp) were studied. An obvious Cp effect was observed in this adsorption system. The degree of adsorption hysteresis increased greatly with the increasing of Cp, indicating that the extent of the real metastable-equilibrium states deviating from the ideal equilibrium state was enhanced with the increasing of Cp. The Cp-reversibility relationship confirmed the metastable-equilibrium adsorption (MEA) inequality (Pan, 1998a), which was the core formulation of the MEA theory. Because the MEA inequality was based on the basic hypothesis of MEA theory that adsorption densitιy ι is not a state variable, the Cp-reversibility relationship gave indirect evidence to the basic hypothesis of MEA theory.     

汕头港湾附近水域潮流特征和污染物扩散的数值计算 Ⅰ汕头港湾附近水域潮流特征及数值模拟

汕头港湾附近水域的潮流特征，由于拦沙堤的建成及港池附近河道变窄而发生了一些变化。本文在取得现场实测资料的基础上，采用沿深度平均的二维浅水潮波方程，对该水体的潮流场进行了数值模拟计算，重现出潮流场在一个潮周期中的变化过程，分析潮流对污染扩散的作用。