Modelling Temperature Trends in New Zealand

If global warming is accelerating, then one might expect temperatures for most stations to be accelerating and perhaps variability to be increasing. In this study, we examine 57 New Zealand temperature time series for evidence of non-linearity and changing variability. These correspond to time series for annual minima, annual means and annual maxima for 19 stations. Estimation is by an extended least-squares method. We find a surprising diversity of behaviour of these series – presumably reflecting their different geographic factors as well as series length. We give evidence of regions where temperatures are decreasing. For series where a linear trend is significant, it is downwards in about one third of the cases. This proportion was higher in the South Island, especially for series of minima. Where a non-linear trend is significant, temperatures are decelerating in about one half of the cases. The ratio of downward to upward trends is highest among annual maxima and South Island minima and smallest in annual means. Where a linear trend in the variability is significant, it is decreasing in 13 cases and increasing in 5 cases, although possibly this is partly due to poorer quality data last century. Where a non-linear trend in the variability is significant, variability is decelerating in about two thirds of the cases. The results are used to project upper and lower return levels of minima, means and maxima for each of the series to the year 2010.     

Sulphur isotope composition of epiphytic and terricolous lichens and pine bark in Finland

The sulphur isotope composition of the epiphytic lichens, Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl and Pseudevernia furfuracea (L.) Zopf, of the terricolous lichens, Cladina sp. and Peltigera aphthosa (L.) Willd., and of pine bark, at 31 sites in Finland, appeared to be dependent on lichen and tree species. The negative correlation of sulphur isotope composition with sulphur content was highly significant (P<0.001) in H. physodes and significant (P<0.01) in Pseudevernia furfuracea and Peltigera aphthosa. No correlation between the sulphur isotope composition and sulphur content was found for Cladina sp. and pine bark. The sulphur isotope compositions displayed statistically significant regional variation from south to north. Microenvironmental factors were considered, including phorophyte species and the chemical form of sulphur.