Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

RESEARCH: Shrub Propagation Techniques for Biological Control of Invading Tree Species

Cornus stolonifera, Salix petiolaris, and Spiraea alba clones already located within the corridor of an electrical power line. To establish the efficiency of treatments, we examined the statistical differences of growth traits between species and treatments. An analysis of the effects of layering shows, after the first growth season, differences for all growth traits in only one species, Spiraea alba. After the second growth season, we observed the development of new aerial stems. Layering favors horizontal expansion of shrubs over height development. The third year after treatment, the effect of layering is reduced except for Cornus stolonifera, which continuously increases, as shown by the significant progression of the clone issued from the layer even five years after treatments. With the cutting back technique, we expected a distinct vertical growth of the shrubs at the expense of increasing the crown diameter. This technique would be best associated with the rejuvenation of clones, followed by a layering of new shoots to allow a horizontal expansion of the shrubs. Therefore, the formation of a dense shrub community by layering should be considered a valuable approach for the biological control of undesirable trees in powerline rights-of-way.     

基于卫星图像的村庄真实形态评价:一种识别欧洲完整文化景观的方法

土地由中心到边缘呈现不同分布利用方式的村庄,构成了欧洲文化景观的基本单元.然而在许多的乡村景观中,那些拥有细致结构的耕地和有树木的草场的真正前工业时代的村庄正在不断失去其原有的结构,这种遗失威胁着文化的继承和生物多样性.因此,监测景观中这样的村庄真实形态的变化范围和速度是非常重要的.随着废弃时间的增加,村庄的真实形态不断丢失,我们所要研究的是怎样的丢失程度才能够通过卫星图像定量分析和目视解译进行评价.1999年,我们在波兰东南部的Bieszczady山脉开展本研究.使用1998年的陆地卫星TM数据,利用景观元素的粒度(田地大小)和土地覆盖组成(灌木和森林的扩侵)对代表真实村庄结构形态退化不同阶段的6种类型村庄进行定量描述.我们利用历史地图勾勒出村庄的边界,并测量从前森林和空地的范围.利用卫星数据,将当前的土地利用和表示成粒度及森林的扩侵状况的土地废弃程度绘制成图.退化沿着2条变化路径发生:被废弃并且最终变成森林,或者形成集约农业.为了验证这样的结果,我们通过对原始卫星影像的目视解译,将1000km2范围内的22个其他村庄分成了4类.而后,我们收集了过去60年人口变化的历史数据.村庄真实形态的分类与人口下降速度明显相关.我们希望验证和应用这种快速评估文化景观真实形态的方法能够得到重视,尤其是在随着欧盟的扩大正在经历或者将要发生巨大变化的欧洲区域.最后,我们论证了村庄具有成为一个融合自然与社会科学的景观尺度的可能性.     

Supportive Breeding and Variance Effective Population Size

The practice of supporting weak, wild populations through release of individuals bred in captivity is becoming an increasingly important conservation measure. A frequently recommended form of such breeding-release activity refers to supportive breeding: a fraction of the target population is brought into captivity for reproduction, and the resulting progeny are released to mix with the wild segment of the population. We derived an expression for the variance effective size of a population managed through supportive breeding and discuss its relationship to previously published equations that are based on the assumption of random mating. We show that the effect of supportive breeding may be quite different on the inbreeding and the variance effective sizes. Whereas supportive breeding always results in a reduction of the inbreeding effective number, the variance effective number may either decrease, increase, or remain unchanged. We discuss these observations in relation to conservation management and suggest some general guidelines for supportive breeding situations. Our recommendations include making a distinction between inbreeding and variance effective numbers; taking particular care when dealing with organisms with high reproductive potential; assuring that the amount of drift be no larger than it would be without supportive breeding; and focusing primarily on the variance effective size of a population-that is, on the effective number directly related to the rate of loss of gene diversity.     

Critical loads for Finnish lakes: comparison of three steady-state models

Three simple steady-state water-chemistry models are used to calculate critical loads of sulfur for lakes in Finland. Because of the high concentrations of organic matter in Finnish lakes, the influence of organic anions on the calculation of critical loads has been given special attention. The first two methods are well known ion-balance methods which have been used in many previous lake-acidification studies. The third method, developed for this study, includes the numerical solution of equilibrium equations for organic anions, inorganic carbon species and inorganic monomeric aluminum. The original pH and aluminum concentration of the lakes are estimated with this model, and a method to estimate the original acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by simulating a Gran-titration is also tested on the lake data. Uncertainty in the predictions is estimated by varying the most critical model parameters.     

Yield and grain quality of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers

Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) was exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers for two growing seasons, 1987 and 1988, at a site located in south-west Sweden. The chambers were placed in a field of commercially grown spring wheat. The treatments were charcoal-filtered air (CF), non-filtered air (NF) and non-filtered air plus extra ozone (NF(+)). In 1988, one additional ozone concentration (NF(++)) was used. Grain yield was affected by the ozone concentration of the air. Air filtration resulted in an increase in grain yield of about 7% in both years, compared to NF. The addition of ozone (NF(+), NF(++)) reduced grain yield and increased the content of crude protein of the grain in both years. Filtration of the air had no significant effect on the content of crude protein, compared to NF. The results showed a strong positive chamber effect on grain yield in the cold and wet summer of 1987. In 1988, there was no net chamber effect on grain yield. The relative differences between the CF, NF and NF(+) treatments with respect to grain yield were of the same magnitude in the two years, despite the very different weather conditions.