Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Awareness and convenience are important in increasing conference sustainability

Conference organizers are increasingly making efforts to reduce resource use at conferences, yet few responsibilities are placed on attendees. We hosted an ecology conference and offered attendees a discount if they took a sustainability pledge agreeing to reduce their resource use at the conference. In a post-conference survey, 83% of respondents reported fulfilling the pledge, but 62% indicated that convenience was the biggest obstacle impeding their ability to continue the pledge during and after the conference. We found great willingness by attendees to reduce resource use at and beyond our conference, and facilitating their participation was an important part of our success.     

Biomass of the invertebrate megabenthos from 500 to 4100 m in the northeast Atlantic Ocean

Data are presented on the biomass of the invertebrate megafauna at 22 stations on the continental slope in the Porcupine Seabight (PSB) (northeast Atlantic Ocean). Samples were collected between 1980 and 1982. Several units of biomass are used, all of which illustrate a decrease by a factor of about 30 from 500 to 4100 m. Lognormal curves were fitted to the data, the gradients of which were very similar for all biomass units and similar to the value for a transect down the continental slope in the western Atlantic. Biomass levels in the PSB are compared with those from other deep-sea environments. Some published values are more than ten times higher than the values reported here, while others are less than a tenth. The reasons for these differences and trends are discussed in terms of food supply. Sampling variability was examined at two stations, but by chance one (at 1300 m) appeared to encompass a sharp faunal discontinuity of the dominant fauna and the other (at 4000 m) contained very small numbers of large animals. For these reasons, sample variability was high at the repeat stations. Suspension-feeders and crustaceans dominated the biomass at upper-slope depths, while echinoderms were dominant on the middle and lower slope. As a result of this phyletic change, there was a small but insignificant decrease in mean body weight with increasing depth. Within phyla there was also a small but insignificant decrease with depth. If large species are excluded from the biomass/depth regression, the gradient changes considerably, demonstrating the increasing importance of small species at greater depths. The size distribution of megafaunal biomass was examined at several stations. This indicated that the megafauna form a functional group distinct from the macrofauna, just as the macrofauna are distinct from the meiofauna.     

不同碳源条件下草菇内切型纤维素酶基因（eg1）转录表达的分析

利用Northernblot方法分析了不同碳源条件下草菇切型纤维素酶基因(eg1)的表达.结果发现,在含有纤维素的液体培养基中生长10d,eg1在草菇菌丝中有高效表达;纤维二糖、α-乳糖、β-乳糖,也能诱导eg1的表达,但和纤维素相比,eg1的表达量相对较低,并且它们的诱导效应在加入这类糖12h后迅速减弱;槐糖和龙胆二糖的诱导作用非常弱.在天然稻草为基质的固体栽培料生长时,草菇eg1的表达和草菇菌丝生长与出菇相对应,在菌丝生长期(d8)可见eg1的表达,d12时菌丝已长满,表达减弱,在出菇及菇体的分化及增大期,eg1的表达量逐渐增强,在成熟期达到最高水平;表明在草菇菇体发育中需要更多碳源及能源的补充,eg1在这方面起着非常重要的作用.图4参14     

Population Trends in Pacific Oceanic Sharks and the Utility of Regulations on Shark Finning

Accurate assessment of shark population status is essential for conservation but is often constrained by limited and unreliable data. To provide a basis for improved management of shark resources, we analyzed a long‐term record of species‐specific catches, sizes, and sexes of sharks collected by onboard observers in the western and central Pacific Ocean from 1995 to 2010. Using generalized linear models, we estimated population‐status indicators on the basis of catch rate and biological indicators of fishing pressure on the basis of median size to identify trends for blue (Prionace glauca), mako (Isurus spp.), oceanic whitetip (Carcharhinus longimanus), and silky (Carcharhinus falciformis) sharks. Standardized catch rates of longline fleets declined significantly for blue sharks in the North Pacific (by 5% per year [CI 2% to 8%]), for mako sharks in the North Pacific (by 7% per year [CI 3% to 11%]), and for oceanic whitetip sharks in tropical waters (by 17% per year [CI 14% to 20%]). Median lengths of silky and oceanic whitetip sharks decreased significantly in their core habitat, and almost all sampled silky sharks were immature. Our results are consistent with results of analyses of similar data sets. Combined, these results and evidence of targeted fishing for sharks in some regional fisheries heighten concerns for sustainable utilization, particularly for oceanic whitetip and North Pacific blue sharks. Regional regulations that prohibit shark finning (removal of fins and discarding of the carcass) were enacted in 2007 and are in many cases the only form of control on shark catches. However, there is little evidence of a reduction of finning in longline fisheries. In addition, silky and oceanic whitetip sharks are more frequently retained than finned, which suggests that even full implementation of and adherence to a finning prohibition may not substantially reduce mortality rates for these species. We argue that finning prohibitions divert attention from assessing whether catch levels are sustainable and that the need for management of sharks should not be addressed by measures that are simple to implement but complex to enforce and evaluate. Tendencias Poblacionales de Tiburones del Océano Pacífico y la Utilidad de Regulaciones sobre Cercenamiento de Aletas     

Method to assess component contribution to toxicity of complex mixtures: Assessment of puberty acquisition in rats exposed to disinfection byproducts

A method based on regression modeling was developed to discern the contribution of component chemicals to the toxicity of highly complex, environmentally realistic mixtures of disinfection byproducts(DBPs). Chemical disinfection of drinking water forms DBP mixtures.Because of concerns about possible reproductive and developmental toxicity, a whole mixture(WM) of DBPs produced by chlorination of a water concentrate was administered as drinking water to Sprague–Dawley(S–D) rats in a multigenerational study. Age of puberty acquisition,i.e., preputial separation(PPS) and vaginal opening(VO), was examined in male and female offspring, respectively. When compared to controls, a slight, but statistically significant delay in puberty acquisition was observed in females but not in males. WM-induced differences in the age at puberty acquisition were compared to those reported in S–D rats administered either a defined mixture(DM) of nine regulated DBPs or individual DBPs. Regression models were developed using individual animal data on age at PPS or VO from the DM study. Puberty acquisition data reported in the WM and individual DBP studies were then compared with the DM models. The delay in puberty acquisition observed in the WM-treated female rats could not be distinguished from delays predicted by the DM regression model, suggesting that the nine regulated DBPs in the DM might account for much of the delay observed in the WM. This method is applicable to mixtures of other types of chemicals and other endpoints.     

Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Effect of lipids on sorption/desorption hysteresis in natural organic matter

The chemical composition and physical conformation of natural organic matter (NOM) play a major role in regulating its capacity to retain hydrophobic organic compounds. Naphthalene and phenanthrene were used to study the correlations between sorption/desorption isotherm nonlinearity and compositional data obtained from quantitative ¹³C solid-state DPMAS NMR spectroscopy for soil and peat organic matter with or without lipids. Sorption experiments were conducted using a batch equilibration method. Desorption experiments were carried out immediately following the sorption experiments by three successive decant-refill cycles. Hysteresis was observed in all samples. Nonlinear sorption behavior was increased by removal of lipids from the NOM. The hysteresis index, obtained from the ratio of the Freundlich exponents (N values) for the desorption and sorption isotherms, was lower in the lipid-extracted NOM samples than in the same samples without lipid extraction. The relationship between the extent of hysteresis and the characteristics of the ¹³C DPMAS NMR spectra indicates that altering NOM composition through lipid extraction not only increased the proportion of aromatic-C content, but also increased sorption/desorption hysteresis. Our data also suggest that the hysteresis index is negatively related to aromaticity.     

Influencing climate change regulations: examining responses from large-scale firms

Recent climate change projections and a push towards a universal agreement on carbon emission reductions suggest that firms will need to respond to future regulatory changes. This paper employs an influencing strategies lens to examine how large-scale firms might respond to future climate change regulations. The study uses a structured qualitative methodology to explore and explicate the strategic responses from 21 international firms to the proposed emissions trading scheme outlined in Australia's Garnaut Climate Change Review. The results of the analysis show that firms can use pre-emptive influencing strategies in attempts to shape and mould regulatory design parameters, secure high levels of transitional economic support, and shift the balance of public policies and expenditure. Complementary defensive strategies may also target policy makers and regulators with some of the potential negative consequences of the new regulations.     

EROSION ON LOGGING ROADS IN REDWOOD CREEK,NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA1

Road-related erosion was estimated by measuring 100 randomly located plots on a 180 km road network in the middle reach of R'dwood Creek in northwestern California. The estimated erosion ratn of 177 m³ km^-1 was contrasted with two earlier studies in nearby parts of the same watershed. A sizable proportion of the great reduction in erosion from that reported in the earlier studies is attributed to changes in forest practice rules. Those changes have resulted in better placement and sizing of culverts and, especially, to less reliance on culverts to handle runoff from logging roads.