Long-term dynamics and correlations of ecophysiological parameters in murine rodent communities

The dynamics and correlations of ecophysiological parameters have been studied in two spatially separated multispecies communities of murine rodents and ixodid tick larvae and nymphs that parasitize them. It has been shown that all the processes under consideration have nonstationary, oscillatory dynamics. The long-term dynamics of connectivity of ecophysiological characteristics within communities and their synchronization by weather–climatic factors are, by nature, wavelike processes of transitions between the states with stronger and weaker linkage between parameters, which, along with nonstationarity, can contribute to the maintenance of stability and integrity of communities.     

Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the “model of humus balance”

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. Figures in color are available at     

Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000–2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios. Figures in color are available at     

Validation of the CANDY model with Russian long-term experiments

The CANDY model has been qualitatively assessed for simulating long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon and tested against different long-term experiments representing various land uses and geographical sites, but never before against conditions of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Our goal was to simulate long-term trends in soil organic carbon for the long-term experiments of Barybino (Moscow region, Russia), Grakov (Kharkow region, Ukraine) and Yachenka (Minsk region, Belarus) representing the predominant arable soil types, climate conditions and typical management strategies for the investigated arable areas. The fit of modelled results to the observed data was evaluated to assess the suitability of the model for further applications in the FSU. The crop parameters of the CANDY model had to be adapted to the low yields observed under the Russian site conditions resulting in a higher sensitivity to crop-derived carbon input as a function of yield. The results show that the approach of treating the organic carbon situated in micro pores as inert, is an applicable solution for simulating soil carbon dynamics under Russian conditions. This evaluation of CANDY, against long-term experiments from Russia, gives confidence for its wider application in this region.     

Using Cost‐Effective Targeting to Enhance the Efficiency of Conservation Investments in Payments for Ecosystem Services

Abstract: Ecosystem services are being protected and restored worldwide through payments for ecosystem services in which participants are paid to alter their land‐management approaches to benefit the environment. The efficiency of such investments depends on the design of the payment scheme. Land features have been used to measure the environmental benefits of and amount of payment for land enrollment in payment for ecosystem services schemes. Household characteristics of program participants, however, may also be important in the targeting of land for enrollment. We used the characteristics of households participating in China's Grain‐to‐Green program, and features of enrolled land to examine the targeting of land enrollment in that program in Wolong Nature Reserve. We compared levels of environmental benefits that can be obtained through cost‐effective targeting of land enrollment for different types of benefits under different payment schemes. The efficiency of investments in a discriminative payment scheme (payments differ according to opportunity costs, i.e., landholders’ costs of forgoing alternative uses of land) was substantially higher than in a flat payment scheme (same price paid to all participants). Both optimal targeting and suboptimal targeting of land enrollment for environmental benefits achieved substantially more environmental benefits than random selection of land for enrollment. Our results suggest that cost‐effective targeting of land through the use of discriminative conservation payments can substantially improve the efficiency of investments in the Grain‐to‐Green program and other payment for ecosystem services programs.     

Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.     

A multiple testing approach for hazard evaluation of complex mixtures in the aquatic environment: the use of diesel oil as a model

Traditional single species toxicity tests and multiple component laboratory-scaled microcosm assays were combined to assess the toxicological hazard of diesel oil, a model complex mixture, to a model aquatic environment. The immediate impact of diesel oil dosed on a freshwater community was studied in a model pond microcosm over 14 days: a 7-day dosage and a 7-day recovery period. A multicomponent laboratory microcosm was designed to monitor the biological effects of diesel oil (1.0 mg litre(-1)) on four components: water, sediment (soil + microbiota), plants (aquatic macrophytes and algae), and animals (zooplanktonic and zoobenthic invertebrates). To determine the sensitivity of each part of the community to diesel oil contamination and how this model community recovered when the oil dissipated, limnological, toxicological, and microbiological variables were considered. Our model revealed these significant occurrences during the spill period: first, a community production and respiration perturbation, characterized in the water column by a decrease in dissolved oxygen and redox potential and a concomitant increase in alkalinity and conductivity; second, marked changes in microbiota of sediments that included bacterial heterotrophic dominance and a high heterotrophic index (0.6), increased bacterial productivity, and the marked increases in numbers of saprophytic bacteria (10 x) and bacterial oil degraders (1000 x); and third, column water acutely toxic (100% mortality) to two model taxa: Selenastrum capricornutum and Daphnia magna. Following the simulated clean-up procedure to remove the oil slick, the recovery period of this freshwater microcosm was characterized by a return to control values. This experimental design emphasized monitoring toxicological responses in aquatic microcosm; hence, we proposed the term 'toxicosm' to describe this approach to aquatic toxicological hazard evaluation. The toxicosm as a valuable toxicological tool for screening aquatic contaminants was demonstrated using diesel oil as a model complex mixture.