Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

唯特净生物菌剂在快速提升污泥浓度上的应用

本文介绍了唯特净生物菌剂在延庆污水处理厂试运行中，解决了在贫营养状态下污泥浓度和污泥沉降比提升缓慢的难题。     

Globaler und regionaler Klimawandel

The interdependences between climate and humanity are becoming increasingly apparent, which makes climatology an upto-date and strongly discussed subject. Its task is to identify and examine relatively long-term, regional and global, natural and anthropogenic developments. A global, long-term view reveals a striking increase of surfacenear air temperature since the beginning of the industrial age. On a regional scale, trends differ considerably, but also Germany shows an apparent trend of increasing temperature and precipitation. The development of extreme events is more difficult to judge; the heat summer of 2003 in Europe, however, is among the phenomena that are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The influence of different natural and anthropogenic factors on the climate is expressed, amongst others, through their radiative forcings. Greenhouse gases emitted from anthropogenic activities are of particular significance since their concentration in the atmosphere keeps increasing. Mathematical modeling has made it possible to reconstruct the climate development of the past with increasing precision. The currently observed warming can only be comprehended by assuming anthropogenic influences. For the future development different scenarios have been calculated in order to deduce strategies for necessary action.     

Critical loads for Finnish lakes: comparison of three steady-state models

Three simple steady-state water-chemistry models are used to calculate critical loads of sulfur for lakes in Finland. Because of the high concentrations of organic matter in Finnish lakes, the influence of organic anions on the calculation of critical loads has been given special attention. The first two methods are well known ion-balance methods which have been used in many previous lake-acidification studies. The third method, developed for this study, includes the numerical solution of equilibrium equations for organic anions, inorganic carbon species and inorganic monomeric aluminum. The original pH and aluminum concentration of the lakes are estimated with this model, and a method to estimate the original acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by simulating a Gran-titration is also tested on the lake data. Uncertainty in the predictions is estimated by varying the most critical model parameters.     

水动力对沉积物-水界面氧通量产生机制的影响

选取三峡库区支流御临河为研究对象,测量了5个水动力条件（平均流速为0.00,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.20m/s）下沉积物-水界面（SWI）氧通量的变化及水动力条件对SWI氧通量产生机制的影响.结果表明,随着平均流速的升高,SWI氧通量增加,由0.00m/s时的1.197mmol/（m²·h）增加为0.20m/s时的43.981mmol/（m²·h）,溶解氧穿透深度增加,氧进入沉积物更深处并被微生物和还原性物质所利用,沉积物耗氧量上升;当平均流速较低时,沉积物耗氧量以生物耗氧量为主,在0.00m/s与0.03m/s时生物耗氧量为氧通量的85.3%与57.7%;当水体平均流速较高,化学耗氧量与其他耗氧量中的化学过程耗氧量在氧通量中的比重逐步提高.     

Yield and grain quality of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers

Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) was exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers for two growing seasons, 1987 and 1988, at a site located in south-west Sweden. The chambers were placed in a field of commercially grown spring wheat. The treatments were charcoal-filtered air (CF), non-filtered air (NF) and non-filtered air plus extra ozone (NF(+)). In 1988, one additional ozone concentration (NF(++)) was used. Grain yield was affected by the ozone concentration of the air. Air filtration resulted in an increase in grain yield of about 7% in both years, compared to NF. The addition of ozone (NF(+), NF(++)) reduced grain yield and increased the content of crude protein of the grain in both years. Filtration of the air had no significant effect on the content of crude protein, compared to NF. The results showed a strong positive chamber effect on grain yield in the cold and wet summer of 1987. In 1988, there was no net chamber effect on grain yield. The relative differences between the CF, NF and NF(+) treatments with respect to grain yield were of the same magnitude in the two years, despite the very different weather conditions.