Catastrophe theory to assess water security and adaptation strategy in the context of environmental change

Economic development, population growth, urbanization and climate change have led to an increasing water shortage across the globe. Ensuring water security under changing environment will be the greatest challenge for water resources managers in near future. In this paper, catastrophe theory based multi-criteria evaluation model has been proposed to assess water security under different management strategies to recommend the best water management strategy to achieve water security in the context of global environmental change. The assessment model involves future scenarios of climate change, population growth and economic development. Total 16 indicators related to climate, socio-economy and water availability and consumption have been proposed to measure water security under three management strategies viz. business-as-usual, water demand management and water supply management. The model has been applied to Yulin city of North West China to assess water security as well as to identify the water management strategy under changing environment. The results show that under business-as-usual situation the water shortage rate will reach up to 44 % by the year 2020 and up to 70 % by the year 2030 in Yulin. Water supply is required to increase by 41 % to meet the water demand under supply management strategy which is beyond the safe baseline rate. The study reveals that water demand management can reduce the gap between water supply and demand to a reasonable amount and therefore, can be considered as the most effective approach for adapting with environment change.     

Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China

We present a methodology for using a domestic water use time series that were obtained from Yellow River Conservancy Commission, together with the climatic records from the National Climate Center of China to evaluate the effects of climate variability on water use in the Yellow River Basin. A suit of seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were adopted to anticipate future climate patterns in the Yellow River. The historical records showed evidences of rises in temperature and subsequent rises in domestic water demand in the basin. For Upstream of Longyangxia region, the impact was the least, with only 0.0021?×?10⁸ m³ for a temperature increase of 1 °C; while for Longyangxia-Lanzhou region, domestic water use was found to increase to 0.18?×?10⁸ m³ when temperature increases 1 °C. Downstream of Huayuankou was the region with the most changes in temperature that gave the highest increase of 1.95?×?10⁸ m³ in domestic water demand for 1 °C of change of temperature. Downstream of Huayuankou was identified as the most vulnerable area, where domestic water demand increases nearly by 42.2 % with 1 °C increase of temperature. Judging from the trends of temperature range, we concluded that future temperature in Yellow River Basin has an increasing tendency. This could worsen the existing issues of domestic water demand and even more to trigger high competition among different water-using sectors.     

Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

Palm oil and its wastes as bioenergy sources: a comprehensive review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Due to global warming and increasing price of fossil fuel, scientists all over the world have been trying to find reliable alternative fuels. One of...     

Analysis of Meteorological Drought Pattern During Different Climatic and Cropping Seasons in Bangladesh

Drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters in Bangladesh which severely affect agro‐based economy and people's livelihood in almost every year. Characterization of droughts in a systematic way is therefore critical in order to take necessary actions toward drought mitigation and sustainable development. In this study, standardized precipitation index is used to understand the spatial distribution of meteorological droughts during various climatic seasons such as premonsoon, monsoon, and winter seasons as well as cropping seasons such as Pre‐Kharif (March‐May), Kharif (May‐October), and Rabi (December‐February). Rainfall data collected from 29 rainfall gauge stations located in different parts of the country were used for a period of 50 years (1961‐2010). The study reveals that the spatial characteristics of droughts vary widely according to season. Premonsoon droughts are more frequent in the northwest, monsoon droughts mainly occur in the west and northwest, winter droughts in the west, and the Rabi and Kharif droughts are more frequent in the north and northwest of Bangladesh. It is expected that the findings of the study will support drought monitoring and mitigation activities in Bangladesh.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Residential Energy Consumption in Dhaka City

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The monthly electricity consumption data for the period 2011–2014 and long-term climate variables namely monthly rainfall and temperature records (1961–2010) were used in the study. An ensemble of six global circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) namely, BCCCSM1-1, CanESM2, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to project future changes in rainfall and temperature. The regression models describing the relationship between historical energy consumption and climate variables were developed to project future changes in energy consumptions. The results revealed that daily energy consumption in Dhaka city increases in the range of 6.46–11.97 and 2.37–6.25 MkWh at 95% level of confidence for every increase of temperature by 1 °C and daily average rainfall by 1 mm, respectively. This study concluded that daily total residential energy demand and peak demand in Dhaka city can increase up to 5.9–15.6 and 5.1–16.7%, respectively, by the end of this century under different climate change scenarios.     

Carbon dioxide sequestration of iron ore mining waste under low-reaction condition of a direct mineral carbonation process

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Mining waste that is rich in iron-, calcium- and magnesium-bearing minerals can be a potential feedstock for sequestering CO2 by mineral carbonation....     

Gini coefficient to assess equity in domestic water supply in the Yellow River

Yellow River, is designated as “the cradle of Chinese civilization” and played a key role not only in the country’s economic development but also in the historic and cultural identity of the Chinese people. With the rapid economic development and population growth, water demand for industry and households has increased significantly in the Yellow River basin; this has caused an increasing gap between water supply and demand. Competing water demands triggered conflicts between disparate water users on different scales such as the rich and the poor, or between different sectors and regions, such as domestic and agriculture, agriculture and industry, upstream and downstream, rural and urban areas, etc. Ensuring equity in water supply for conflicting water users is one of the major challenges that facing water managers and in particular water management in the Yellow River basin. In this paper, a method has been developed to calculate the Gini coefficient of water use as an indicator to measure the equality in domestic water supply. A dual domestic water use structure model is employed for this purpose. The developed method is subsequently applied to assess the equality in domestic water supply in the Yellow River. Data of population growth, domestic water use and economic development over the time period 1999-2006 are used to calculate the Gini coefficient of water use over the same length of period. The result shows a decreasing trend in Gini coefficient of domestic water use in the Yellow River basin after 2001 which means domestic water use is becoming more and more equitable in the basin. The study justifies that the Gini coefficient of water use can be used and recommended as a useful tool for the water management especially in the context of global change.