Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.     

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.     

Characterisation and fingerprinting of PCBs in flue gas and ash from waste incineration and in technical mixtures

Congener patterns of mono- to deca-chlorinated biphenyls (PC1-10B) were evaluated in (a) waste incineration flue gases collected in the post-combustion zone of a laboratory-scale fluidized-bed reactor, (b) ashes from two different MSW incineration plants, and (c) published data of eight Aroclor formulations. The congener patterns of the flue gases, ashes, and Aroclor mixtures clearly differed from each other, likely reflecting differences in formation pathways. The flue gas congener patterns were largely dominated by the least chlorinated congeners, whereas the ashes displayed more evenly distributed patterns. The most abundant congeners indicated a preference for 3,3',4,4'-oriented substitution, which may be related to de novo-type formation involving perylene. Principal component analysis confirmed that congener patterns differed among the three matrices and also distinguished flue gases collected at 200 °C from those collected at 300 °C and 450 °C. This distinction could be partly explained by the degree of chlorination, although the substitution status of the ortho-position, and substitution in the 3,3',4,4'-positions also seemed to be influential. Injecting biphenyl into the post-combustion zone of the reactor did not alter the patterns, indicating that availability of the backbone structure is not a limiting factor for PCB formation.     

Accurate sampling of PCDD/F in high temperature flue-gas using cooled sampling probes

In a laboratory-scale combustion reactor, flue-gas samples were collected at two temperatures in the post-combustion zone, 700 °C and 400 °C, using two different water-cooled sampling probes. The probes were the cooled probe described in the European Standard method EN-1948:1, referred to as the original probe, and a modified probe that contained a salt/ice mixture to assist the cooling, referred to as the sub-zero probe. To determine the efficiency of the cooling probes, internal temperature measurements were recorded at 5 cm intervals inside the probes. Flue-gas samples were analyzed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs). Samples collected at 700 °C using the original cooling probe showed higher concentrations of PCDD/Fs compared to samples collected using the sub-zero probe. No significant differences were observed between samples collected at 400 °C. The results indicated that artifact formation of PCDD/Fs readily occurs during flue-gas sampling at high temperatures if the cooling within the probe is insufficient, as found for the original probe at 700 °C. It was also shown that this problem could be alleviated by using probes with an enhanced cooling capacity, such as the sub-zero probe.Although this may not affect samples collected for regulatory purposes in exit gases, it is of great importance for research conducted in the high-temperature region of the post-combustion zone.     

Is the first-trimester combined screening result associated with the phenotype of Down syndrome? A population-based cohort study

Objective

To investigate if the Down syndrome phenotype differs according to the result of first-trimester combined screening (FTS).

Method

We included all Down syndrome cases diagnosed by karyotype in pregnancy or after birth in Denmark during 2005–2018. We compared screen positive (odds ≥1:300) and screen negative (odds <1:300) cases as well as screen result subgroups with respect to anthropometrics, congenital malformations, childhood diseases, and hospitalization.

Results

Absolute measures of fetal and birth anthropometrics were comparable between groups. A prenatal malformation diagnosis was more prevalent among screen positive than screen negative cases. Analyses suggested that this could reflect a detection bias. Cases with a screen result of 1:2–1:10 had a higher probability of being diagnosed with a malformation prenatally and with severe congenital heart disease (CHD) postnatally compared with a result of 1:11–1:300. Screen positive cases more often had non-severe CHD but less often a non-heart malformation compared with screen negative cases, while proportions of severe CHD were similar in these groups. Data on hospitalizations showed inconsistent results.

Conclusion

The 1:300 screening threshold had limited or no value in predicting Down syndrome phenotype severity. In contrast, cases with a screen result between 1:2 and 1:10 may represent a more severe phenotype.     

Regional Variability of Cd,Hg, Pb and C Concentrations in Different Horizons of Swedish Forest Soils

Contents of cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb) and carbon(C) in the O, B and C horizons of podzolized forest soils inSweden were surveyed. Concentrations and storage of Cd, Hg andPb in the O and B horizons were high in southern Sweden and gradually decreased towards the north, though with considerablelocal variability. This pattern reflects the influence of anthropogenic emissions of these metals, as well as the effectsof soil-forming processes. Parent till material, as representedby the C horizon concentration of the respective metal, accountedfor little of the variation in metal concentration in the O horizon. For Cd and Pb, the correlations were not significant orslightly negative (R² = 0.12 and 0.09 respectively) depending on region, while for Hg the correlation was not significant or slightly positive (R² = 0.03 and 0.08). Furthermore, parent till material accounted for more of the variation in metal concentrations in the B horizons in the northern part of Sweden than in the middle and southernmost parts, where the concentration of total carbon had more influence. The correlation between the metal concentrationsin the B and C horizon was strongest for Pb (R² = 0.63 and 0.36 in the two northernmost regions), lower for Cd (R² = 0.19 and 0.16) and not significant for Hg. For allsoil horizons, total C concentration accounted for much of thevariation in Hg concentration in particular (O-horizon R² = 0.15–0.69, B horizon R² = 0.36–0.50, C horizon R² = 0.23–0.50 and ns in one region). Ratios of metal concentrations between the B and C horizons were highest for Hg(maximum value of 30), indicating a relatively larger addition or retention of Hg compared to Cd and Pb (maximum value of 10)in the B horizon. This study indicate that factors other than parent material account for the large scale variation in O horizon concentrationsof metals but patterns correspond well with those of atmosphericdeposition of heavy metals and acidifying substances. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of soil organicmatter and the intensity of pedogenic processes for the content and distribution of metals throughout the soil horizons.     

Distribution of Cd,Ck, Pb and Zn in Soil and Vegetation Compartments in Stands of Five Boreal Tree Species in N.E. Sweden

Concentrations and total quantity of cadmium (Cd), cupper (Cu),lead (Pb) and zink (Zn) were determined in biomass and soil compartments in a replicated tree species experiment with 27-yr-old stands growing on former farmland in N.E. Sweden. Sequentialextractions of soil samples were performed in order to estimate the exchangeable and an organically bound fraction of each element. The tree species included were Picea abies (L.)H. Karst., Pinus sylvestris L., Pinus contorta Dougl., Larix sibirica Ledeb., and Betula pendula Roth.Tree species influenced the rate of removal of Cu, Pb and Zn incase of stemwood harvesting, and of Cd, Cu and Zn in the case ofwhole-tree harvesting. B. pendula and P. abies had higher quantities and average concentrations of Zn in the biomass. For all species, >50% of the Zn in the stems was found in the bark. P. abies and L. sibirica had higher quantities of Cu in the biomass than the other species.P. abies and P. contorta had high quantities of Cd inthe biomass in relation to the other species. Branches and stembark contained high concentrations of Cd and Pb in relation to foliage and stemwood. Dead branches had especially high concentrations of Pb. The high accumulation rate of Zn in thebiomass of B. pendula was related to a low exchangeable amount of Zn in the A horizon. In the superficial centimeters ofthe A horizon, a depletion similar to that found for Zn was detected for Cu, whereas for Cd and Pb, no correlations were found between quantities of elements in the trees and element pools in the soil.