Optimising the environmental benefits of emission reductions from UK coal- and oil-fired power stations: a critical loads approach

This paper describes a method for determining reductions of SO₂ emissions from coal- and oil-fired power stations, oil refineries and large industrial units in the UK taking into account their pollution potential. The method is based on the use of two gridded data sets: critical loads, which represent the sensitivity of the environment to acid deposition and modelled estimates of total (wet + dry) sulphur deposition for 646 point sources within the UK. An iterative method is used to identify and subsequently reduce emissions from point sources that contribute most to areas of critical loads exceedance. This paper demonstrates how the method may be used to determine an optimal allocation of emissions across the UK which yields the maximum amount of environmental protection per unit of emission.The paper then goes on to consider the changes that will have to take place within the UK power generation industry in order to meet the revised EC Large Combustion Plant Directive which comes into force on 1 January 2008. Particular emphasis is placed upon proposed emissions trading schemes and the environmental implications of allowing trading between stations with high and low pollution potentials. The paper concludes by suggesting that the emissions trading process should take into account the pollution potential of each source, irrespective of whether the proposed emission is within the plant's agreed emission limit. An approach based entirely on minimizing environmental damage rather than one which takes cost into account, as in current integrated assessment modelling, could provide an interesting approach across the rest of Europe.     

Effects of Heating Season on Residential Indoor and Outdoor Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, Black Carbon, and Particulate Matter in an Urban Birth Cohort

Exposure to air pollutants has been associated with adverse health effects. However, analyses of the effects of season and ambient parameters such as ozone have not been fully conducted. Residential indoor and outdoor air levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), black carbon (measured as absorption coefficient [Abs]), and fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM)(2.5) were measured over two-weeks in a cohort of 5-6 year old children (n=334) living in New York City's Northern Manhattan and the Bronx between October 2005 and April 2010. The objectives were to: 1) characterize seasonal changes in indoor and outdoor levels and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios of PAH (gas + particulate phase; dichotomized into Σ(8)PAH(semivolatile) (MW 178-206), and Σ(8)PAH(nonvolatile) (MW 228-278)), Abs, and PM(2.5); and 2) assess the relationship between PAH and ozone. Results showed that heating compared to nonheating season was associated with greater Σ(8)PAH(nonvolatile) (p<0.001) and Abs (p<0.05), and lower levels of Σ(8)PAH(semivolatile) (p<0.001). In addition, the heating season was associated with lower I/O ratios of Σ(8)PAH(nonvolatile) and higher I/O ratios of Σ(8)PAH(semivolatile) (p<0.001) compared to the nonheating season. In outdoor air, Σ(8)PAH(nonvolatile) was correlated negatively with community-wide ozone concentration (p<0.001). Seasonal changes in emission sources, air exchanges, meteorological conditions and photochemical/chemical degradation reactions are discussed in relationship to the observed seasonal trends.     

Development and application of a Lagrangian model to determine the origins of ozone episodes in the UK

This paper describes the further development and application of the Edinburgh–Lancaster Model for Ozone (ELMO). We replace straight-line back-trajectories with trajectories and associated meteorology supplied by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) service to allow more realistic modelling of specific UK ozone episodes. We call this ELMO-2. Model performance is rigorously tested against observed ozone concentrations for two episodes recorded across 14 rural UK monitoring stations during the spring and summer of 1995. For both episodes, the afternoon concentrations (usually coinciding with the daily maxima) are captured well by the model and the diurnal ozone cycle is reproduced, although the amplitude in concentrations is generally smaller than the observed. The summer episode is investigated further through indicator species analysis and source attribution, and found to be mainly VOC-limited. European emissions account for the majority of ozone production. We demonstrate how improved modelling leads to better understanding of regional and local ozone production across the UK under episodic conditions.     

An investigation into the origins of a series of PM10 anomalies at a remote location in NW England

Throughout 2004, PM(10) concentrations were measured at 10 min intervals at Hazelrigg, a remote location in NW England. The annual mean concentration was 6.1 microg m(-3) and likely origins were determined using directional and particle size characteristics. The fine temporal resolution of the monitoring also allowed several short periods (< 20 h) of persistently high PM(10) concentration to be identified and then 'typed' by event start time, duration, wind direction and particle size characteristics. A series of night time PM(10) anomalies (concentration < 465 microg m(-3)) of no obvious source were identified, and by elimination assumed to have originated from a ground-based fire of particle-rich fodder. A novel methodology combining Stokes' Law with systematic and rigorous modelling of source strength (using ADMS3.2) was developed to locate a possible burn site. The process was limited by the lack of previous modelling studies related to ground-based fires, and also by the capacity of ADMS3.2 to model sub-hourly time-varying emissions and fluctuations in wind speed and direction in the near field. However, modelling did suggest the source was located <400 m SSE of Hazelrigg, and investigation of this area revealed a burn site where tyres and plastic bags were piled nearby. Few studies have combined directional analysis and modelling to locate a source based on sampled data. This innovative methodology could be used by regulatory bodies to investigate the origins of unidentified PM(10) observed within the particle record.     

Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model: Methodology, application and implications in a UK context

Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the observed and modelled deposition fields are seen as uncertain and the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework is used to choose acceptable sets of model input parameters that minimise the differences between them. These acceptable sets of model parameters are then used to estimate deposition budgets to the UK and to provide a probabilistic treatment of excess deposition over environmental quality standards (critical loads).