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Edmonds Jae Wise Marshall Pitcher Hugh Richels Richard Wigley Tom MacCracken Chris 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》1997,1(4):311-339
We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference. 相似文献
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BRENT J. SEWALL AMY L. FREESTONE MOHAMED F. E. MOUTUI NASSURI TOILIBOU ISHAKA SAÏD SAINDOU M. TOUMANI DAOUD ATTOUMANE CHEIKH M. IBOURA 《Conservation biology》2011,25(4):688-696
Abstract: Systematic conservation assessment (an information‐gathering and prioritization process used to select the spatial foci of conservation initiatives) is often considered vital to conservation‐planning efforts, yet published assessments have rarely resulted in conservation action. Conservation assessments may lead more directly to effective conservation action if they are reoriented to inform conservation decisions. Toward this goal, we evaluated the relative priority for conservation of 7 sites proposed for the first forest reserves in the Union of the Comoros, an area with high levels of endemism and rapidly changing land uses in the western Indian Ocean. Through the analysis of 30 indicator variables measured at forest sites and nearby villages, we assessed 3 prioritization criteria at each site: conservation value, threat to loss of biological diversity from human activity, and feasibility of reserve establishment. Our results indicated 2 sites, Yiméré and Hassera‐Ndrengé, were priorities for conservation action. Our approach also informed the development of an implementation strategy and enabled an evaluation of previously unexplored relations among prioritization criteria. Our experience suggests that steps taken to ensure the closer involvement of practitioners, include a broader range of social data, encourage stakeholder participation, and consider the feasibility of conservation action can improve the relevance of assessments for conservation planning, strengthen the scientific basis for conservation decisions, and result in a more realistic evaluation of conservation alternatives. 相似文献
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The continuing conundrum of the LEA proteins 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
Research into late embryogenesis abundant (LEA) proteins has been ongoing for more than 20 years but, although there is a strong association of LEA proteins with abiotic stress tolerance particularly dehydration and cold stress, for most of that time, their function has been entirely obscure. After their initial discovery in plant seeds, three major groups (numbered 1, 2 and 3) of LEA proteins have been described in a range of different plants and plant tissues. Homologues of groups 1 and 3 proteins have also been found in bacteria and in certain invertebrates. In this review, we present some new data, survey the biochemistry, biophysics and bioinformatics of the LEA proteins and highlight several possible functions. These include roles as antioxidants and as membrane and protein stabilisers during water stress, either by direct interaction or by acting as molecular shields. Along with other hydrophilic proteins and compatible solutes, LEA proteins might also serve as “space fillers” to prevent cellular collapse at low water activities. This multifunctional capacity of the LEA proteins is probably attributable in part to their structural plasticity, as they are largely lacking in secondary structure in the fully hydrated state, but can become more folded during water stress and/or through association with membrane surfaces. The challenge now facing researchers investigating these enigmatic proteins is to make sense of the various in vitro defined functions in the living cell: Are the LEA proteins truly multi-talented, or are they still just misunderstood? 相似文献
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A global assessment of chromium pollution using sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
John Pierce Wise Sr. Roger Payne Sandra S. Wise Carolyne LaCerte James Wise Christy Gianios Jr. W. Douglas Thompson Christopher Perkins Tongzhang Zheng Cairong Zhu Lucille Benedict Iain Kerr 《Chemosphere》2009,75(11):1461-1467
Chromium (Cr) is a well-known human carcinogen and a potential reproductive toxicant, but its contribution to ocean pollution is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to provide a global baseline for Cr as a marine pollutant using the sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species. Biopsies were collected from free-ranging whales around the globe during the voyage of the research vessel The Odyssey. Total Cr levels were measured in 361 sperm whales collected from 16 regions around the globe detectable levels ranged from 0.9 to 122.6 μg Cr g tissue−1 with a global mean of 8.8 ± 0.9 μg g−1. Two whales had undetectable levels. The highest levels were found in sperm whales sampled in the waters near the Islands of Kiribati in the Pacific (mean = 44.3 ± 14.4) and the Seychelles in the Indian Ocean (mean = 19.5 ± 5.4 μg g−1). The lowest mean levels were found in whales near the Canary Islands (mean = 3.7 ± 0.8 μg g−1) and off of the coast of Sri Lanka (mean = 3.3 ± 0.4 μg g−1). The global mean Cr level in whale skin was 28-times higher than mean Cr skin levels in humans without occupational exposure. The whale levels were more similar to levels only observed previously in human lung tissue from workers who died of Cr-induced lung cancer. We conclude that Cr pollution in the marine environment is significant and that further study is urgently needed. 相似文献
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Russell M. Wise Graham P. von Maltitz Robert J. Scholes Chris Elphinstone Renee Koen 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(7):579-604
Minimising the cost of repeatedly estimating C (C) stocks is crucial to the financial viability of projects that seek to sell
C credits. Depending on the price of C, this may imply less or more sampling effort than would be applied for science objectives.
In systems with heterogeneous C pools, such as savannas, this translates into a variable-effort sampling strategy that maximises
the marginal additional C that can be claimed per incremental unit of effort expended. Analysis of a savanna in north-eastern
South Africa indicates relatively modest returns per hectare due to the small C quantities and low sequestration rates. Under
these conditions, areas in excess of 1,000 ha and infrequent sampling frequencies of 5–10 years are required to make such
projects financially viable. For such projects the sample variance, number of samples, cost per sample and establishment costs
have negligible impacts on financial viability. It was also found that the soil-C pool contributes up to three times the net
returns of the aboveground C pool and provides a strong argument to monitor soil C for certification and market trading. The
financial viability estimates, however, do not include the management or opportunity costs incurred in changing the land use.
The economies of scale identified in this study combined with the massive area covered by savannas indicate that these additional
costs can be covered. Further research is recommended to quantify these costs and interrogate the feasibility of large scale
(in excess of 10,000 ha) C-sink projects in savanna systems. 相似文献
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