Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: Application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals.     

α1-Microglobulin levels and correlation with cadmium and other metals in urine of non-smoking women among general populations in Japan

The present study was initiated to examine urinary α₁-microglobulin (α₁-MG-U) levels among non-smoking women in the general population in Japan. A previously established database on spot urine samples from adult woman volunteers in 10 non-polluted areas all over Japan was re-examined. The data examined were on α₁-MG-U, cadmium, calcium, magnesium and zinc levels in urine (Cd-U, Ca-U, Mg-U and Zn-U, respectively), urinary creatinine (CR or cr), urine specific gravity (SG or sg), smoking habits and age. Thus, 8975 never-smoking women were selected for statistical analyses. The grand geometric mean (GM) for α₁-MG-U among the population was 2.1?mg/L or 2.5?mg/g?cr, depending on the correction for urine density. It was 1.1?µg/L or 1.3?µg/g?cr for GM Cd-U. The inter-area difference in α₁-MG-U was <1.5?mg/g?cr or <0.7?mg/L; the area with the highest or lowest GM Cd-U was not always highest or lowest in GM α₁-MG-U. The correlation coefficient (0.53) between log?Cd-U and log?α₁-MG-U (both without urine density correction) became substantially smaller when the analyte levels were corrected for CR (0.25) or SG (0.26). In multiple regression analysis, the power of influence of the five independent variables (log?Cd-U, Ca-U, Mg-U, Zn-U and age) in combination was small (R ²?≦?0.13). In contrast, logistic regression analysis suggested that α₁-MG-U might be elevated as a function of an increase in Cd-U, depending on the cut-off values. Discussion was made on dose (Cd-U_cr) and response (α₁-MG-U_cr) relationship based on information available in literatures to show that the increment in α₁-MG-U_cr per Cd-U_cr was much greater when Cd-U_cr was large, e.g., in excess of 10?µg/g?cr.     

Ecological risk assessment of pollutant chemicals: extinction risk based on population-level effects

The extinction probability is one of the most useful endpoints that are utilized in conservation biology. A parallel approach is advocated for the ecological risk assessment of chemical pollutants. The presented framework estimates extinction probability induced by pollutant chemicals in order to evaluate ecological hazards of pollution, and is applicable to any biological community (aquatic or terrestrial). The analytical framework, which is based on stochastic population dynamics theory, is briefly explained. The extinction risk estimation is feasible if ecotoxicological data concerning pollutant effects on population growth rate of organisms (the intrinsic rate of natural increase), and if environmental exposure concentration is provided. Tentative risk estimation was made for some agrochemicals and surfactants on zooplankton populations (Daphnia) as target organisms.     

Seasonal variation of monoterpene emission rate in a pine forest

A technique to observe terpene emission rate in a forest without disturbing the environment of plant, was developed, and the seasonal variation of monoterpene emission rate from a branch in a pine forest was measured.     

Trace elements accumulation and their variations with growth, sex and habitat: effects on Formosan squirrel (Callosciurus erythraeus)

Formosan squirrels are considered a useful bio-indicator because their habitat exists within that of humans. Therefore, concentrations of 19 trace elements were determined in tissues of this species for assessment of environmental pollution in urban Kamakura and rural Izuohshima. Results of analyses revealed high Cu concentrations in the livers of Formosan squirrels. Moreover, concentrations of some trace elements from automobile exhausts-V, Zn, Cu and As-in the specimens from Kamakura were higher than those from Izuohshima. These results reflect the presence of pollution caused by human activities in Kamakura.     

The relationship of the monoterpene composition in the atmosphere,the foliar emission gas and the leaf oil of Pinus densiflora

Monoterpene compositions in the atmosphre in a pine forest, the foliar emission gas and the leaf oil of pine needles were compared. The emission rate of each monoterpene from pine needles was proportional to the product of the amount in the leaf oil and the approximate vapor pressure. The composition of monoterpenes in the atmosphere is rather well explained by considering foliar emission rates with the supposition that the terpenes emitted into the atmosphere react with ozone and photochemically with nitrogen oxides.     

Cycling of rare earth elements in the atmosphere in central Tokyo

Concentrations of 14 rare earth elements (REEs) in six size classes of airborne particulate matter (APM) (<0.43, 0.43-0.65, 0.65-1.1, 1.1-2.1, 2.1-11, and >11 μm) and in two different phases (suspended particulate and dissolved) in rainwater were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Positive Eu and Tb anomalies were observed in size-classified APM. These anomalies may be due to large emissions of Eu and Tb to the atmosphere resulting from the recent change in Japan from the use of cathode-ray tubes to plasma displays in television sets (Eu and Tb) and from the widespread use of magneto-optical disks (Tb). The light REEs were enriched in fine APM particles (diameter < 1.1 μm). Because compositions of La/Ce/Sm in fine APM (diameter < 1.1 μm) were similar to those in automobile catalyst, the light REE enrichment was attributed to automobile emissions. In contrast, the REE distribution pattern in the suspended particulate phase in rainwater was similar to that in coarse APM (diameter > 2.1 μm), and a positive Tb anomaly was observed, suggesting that coarse particles easily become trapped in rain droplets. A negative Eu anomaly was observed in the dissolved phase in rainwater, but not in APM or in the suspended particulate phase in rainwater. Unlike other REEs, Eu can exist as both bivalent and trivalent ions in nature, and Eu-selective dissolution from or adsorption onto the trapped particles of Eu might account for the negative anomaly. These results show that atmospheric REE cycling is affected by the physico-chemical properties of APM.     

Organochlorine pesticide and polychlorinated biphenyl residues in foodstuffs from Bangkok, Thailand

Raw foodstuffs collected from Bangkok, Thailand, were analysed for the presence of PCBs, DDTs, HCHs (BHCs). HCB, aldrin, dieldrin, heptachlor and heptachlor epoxide. Residues of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides were detected in all the samples analysed. Concentrations of PCBs did not reach the tolerance limit set forth by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The concentrations of SigmaHCH were higher than those of SigmaDDT in all the farm products while the levels of SigmaDDT were greater in fishes including fish flakes and fishmeal. Meat samples recorded higher concentrations of SigmaDDT and dieldrin than SigmaHCH. Comparing the levels of organochlorines in foodstuffs from Bangkok, considerable levels of aldrin and dieldrin indicate the need for concern from the food safety point of view because of their much higher toxicity than DDT and other organochlorines. However, the levels did not exceed the Maximum Residue Limit (MRL) recommended by FAO/WHO. Food contamination by HCB, heptachlor and heptachlor epoxide is comparatively lower.     

Environmental risk evaluation of chemicals: achievements of the project and seeds for future--development of metrics for evaluating risks

Achievements of the research project entitled "Establishment of a scientific framework for the management of toxicity of chemicals based on environmental risk-benefit analysis" supported by the JST were introduced and reviewed, focusing on the development of the methodology for estimating risks; human health risks and ecological risks. The usefulness of loss of life expectancy as a metric for evaluating cancer and noncancer risks was demonstrated. To evaluate ecological risks, three metrics, 1/T, logT and T, developed based on the mean extinction time (T) of species were proposed. Then, their implication and feasibility were examined in terms of what ecological system should be conserved and how easily people can understand the implications of metrics. Protocols for estimating human health risks and ecological risks are illustrated.     

Accumulation of trace elements used in semiconductor industry in Formosan squirrel, as a bio-indicator of their exposure, living in Taiwan

Concentrations of 17 trace elements were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) in Formosan squirrels (Callosciurus erythraeus) of Taiwan and Japan to document trace element pollution in Taiwan. High concentrations of elements used to produce semiconductors - Ga, As, Cd, In and Tl - were found in animals captured in Miaoli County, which is the nearest site to Hsinchu City, a chief city of Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Significant correlations between Ga, As, In and Tl were found in the kidney, liver, lung and muscle tissues of Taiwanese squirrels. Hierarchical cluster analysis indicated that Ga, As, In and Tl were of the same clade, indicating that Ga, As, In and Tl were discharged from an identical origin. Molar ratios of Ga/As concentration in lungs of animals captured in Miaoli resembled those of animals after intratracheal administration of particulate gallium arsenide (GaAs). This result might indicate that the higher concentrations of Ga and As in the specimens in Miaoli resulted from atmospheric exposure to GaAs.