Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Predicting occurrence of juvenile shark habitat to improve conservation planning

Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km² of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs.     

Tissue distribution of perfluoroalkyl acids and health status in wild Mozambique tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) from Loskop Dam, Mpumalanga, South Africa

This study examined concentrations of 15 perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in tissues from male Mozambique tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) collected at Loskop Dam, Mpumalanga, South Africa in 2014 and 2016. Nine of the 15 PFAAs were detected frequently and were included in statistical analysis and included two of the most commonly known PFAAs, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) (median, 41.6 ng/g) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) (median, 0.0825 ng/g). Of the tissues measured, plasma (2016 and 2014 median, 22.2 ng/g) contained the highest PFAA burden followed by (in descending order): liver (median, 11.6 ng/g), kidney (median, 9.04 ng/g), spleen (median, 5.92 ng/g), adipose (median, 2.54 ng/g), and muscle (median, 1.11 ng/g). Loskop Dam tilapia have been affected by an inflammatory disease of the adipose tissue known as pansteatitis, so this study also aimed to investigate relationships between PFAA tissue concentrations and incidence of pansteatitis or fish health status. Results revealed that healthy tilapia exhibited an overall higher (p-value < 0.05) PFAA burden than pansteatitis-affected tilapia across all tissues. Further analysis showed that organs previously noted in the literature to contain the highest PFAA concentrations, such as kidney, liver, and plasma, were the organs driving the difference in PFAA burden between the two tilapia groups. Care must be taken in the interpretations we draw from not only the results of our study, but also other PFAA measurements made on populations (human and wildlife alike) under differing health status.     

Evidence for a male-produced pheromone in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetropium fuscum</Emphasis> (F.) and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetropium cinnamopterum</Emphasis> (Kirby) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

(E)-6,10-dimethyl-5,9-undecadien-2-ol (geranyl acetol), termed here fuscol, was identified as a male-produced pheromone emitted by Tetropium fuscum (F.) and Tetropium cinnamopterum Kirby. In field experiments, traps baited with synthetic fuscol alone were not significantly attractive, but the combination of fuscol plus host volatiles (a synthetic blend of monoterpenes plus ethanol) attracted significantly more male and female T. fuscum and female T. cinnamopterum than did host volatiles alone. This is the first homoterpenoid alcohol to be described in the Cerambycidae, and the first pheromone reported from the sub-family Spondylidinae.     

Effect of prochloraz fungicide on biotransformation enzymes and oxidative stress parameters in three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.)

The aim of this study was to characterize biomarker responses in three-spined sticklebacks exposed to prochloraz (Pcz). For this purpose, adult sticklebacks were exposed for 2 weeks to prochloraz at 0, 10, 50, 100 and 500 microg/L prior to one week of depuration in clean water. At days 7, 14 and 21, several hepatic biomarkers were measured including 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD), glutathione-S-transferase (GST), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), catalase (CAT), total glutathione (GSH) content and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS). Pcz induced a transient increase of antioxidant enzymes and a depletion of glutathione content during the first 7 days of exposure. This study showed that EROD activity and antioxidants were disrupted in a transient manner. GST was rapidly induced in a dose-dependent manner and this induction was persistent and observed also after depuration. GST appeared as a valuable biomarker to assess the exposure to Pcz.     

Corruption in emergency procurement

Corruption in emergency procurement reduces the resources available for life‐saving operations, lowers the quality of products and services provided, and diverts aid from those who need it most. ¹ 1 The paper is based on a study for a project of the Chr Michelsen Institute (CMI)'s U4 Anti‐Corruption Resource Centre entitled ‘Corruption in Emergencies’ (see http://www.u4.no ).
It also negatively influences public support for humanitarian relief, both in the affected country and abroad. This paper aims to unpack and analyse the following question in order to mitigate risk: how and where does corruption typically occur, and what can be done? Suggested strategies reflect a multi‐layered approach that stresses internal agency control mechanisms, conflict‐sensitive management, and the need for common systems among operators.     

The News You Choose: news media preferences amplify views on climate change

How do choices among information sources reinforce political differences on topics such as climate change? Environmental sociologists have observed large-scale and long-term impacts from news media and think-tank reports, while experimental science-communication studies detect more immediate effects from variations in supplied information. Applying generalized structural equation modeling to recent survey data, previous work is extended to show that political ideology, education and their interaction predict news media information choices in much the same way they predict opinions about climate change itself. Consequently, media information sources serve as intervening variables that can reinforce and, through their own independent effects, amplify existing beliefs about climate change. Results provide empirical support for selective exposure and biased assimilation as mechanisms widening political divisions on climate change in the United States. The findings fit with the reinforcing spirals framework suggesting partisan media strengthens climate change beliefs which then influences subsequent use of media.     

Supporting Diverse Data Providers in the Open Water Data Initiative: Communicating Water Data Quality and Fitness of Use

Shared, trusted, timely data are essential elements for the cooperation needed to optimize economic, ecologic, and public safety concerns related to water. The Open Water Data Initiative (OWDI) will provide a fully scalable platform that can support a wide variety of data from many diverse providers. Many of these will be larger, well‐established, and trusted agencies with a history of providing well‐documented, standardized, and archive‐ready products. However, some potential partners may be smaller, distributed, and relatively unknown or untested as data providers. The data these partners will provide are valuable and can be used to fill in many data gaps, but can also be variable in quality or supplied in nonstandardized formats. They may also reflect the smaller partners' variable budgets and missions, be intermittent, or of unknown provenance. A challenge for the OWDI will be to convey the quality and the contextual “fitness” of data from providers other than the most trusted brands. This article reviews past and current methods for documenting data quality. Three case studies are provided that describe processes and pathways for effective data‐sharing and publication initiatives. They also illustrate how partners may work together to find a metadata reporting threshold that encourages participation while maintaining high data integrity. And lastly, potential governance is proposed that may assist smaller partners with short‐ and long‐term participation in the OWDI.     

A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.