亭子口库区水质汞的污染特征及建库后水体中汞的预测

亭子口水利枢纽位于喜陵江平流苍溪县城以上，１５ｋｍ处。本文根据嘉陵江广元段水质监测资料，分析库区地面水体中汞的现状污染特征，并运用沉积物的负指数方程预测库区建坝后水体中汞的浓度。     

Adsorption/desorption of arsenite and arsenate on chitosan and nanochitosan

Equilibrium sorption studies of anionic species of arsenite, As(III) ions and arsenate As(V) ions onto two biosorbents, namely, chitosan and nanochitosan, have been investigated and compared. The results and trends in the sorption behavior are novel, and we have observed during the sorption process of the As(III) and As(V) on chitosan, a slow process of desorption occurred after an initial maximum adsorption capacity was achieved, before reaching a final but lower equilibrium adsorption capacity. The same desorption trend, however, is not observed on nanochitosan. The gradual desorption of As(III) and As(V) in the equilibrium sorption on chitosan is attributed to the different fractions of the dissociated forms of arsenic on the adsorbent surface and in solution and the extent of protonation of chitosan with the changing of solution pH during sorption. The change of solution pH during the sorption of arsenite ions on chitosan was also influenced by the interaction between the buffering effect of the arsenite species in the aqueous medium and the physical properties of chitosan. The final equilibrium adsorption capacity of chitosan for As(III) and As(V) was found to be around 500 and 8000 μg/g, respectively, whereas the capacities on nanochitosan are 6100 and 13,000 μg/g, respectively.

     

Estimation bias under model selection for distance sampling detection functions

Many simulation studies have examined the properties of distance sampling estimators of wildlife population size. When assumptions hold, if distances are generated from a detection model and fitted using the same model, they are known to perform well. However, in practice, the true model is unknown. Therefore, standard practice includes model selection, typically using model comparison tools like Akaike Information Criterion. Here we examine the performance of standard distance sampling estimators under model selection. We compare line and point transect estimators with distances simulated from two detection functions, hazard-rate and exponential power series (EPS), over a range of sample sizes. To mimic the real-world context where the true model may not be part of the candidate set, EPS models were not included as candidates, except for the half-normal parameterization. We found median bias depended on sample size (being asymptotically unbiased) and on the form of the true detection function: negative bias (up to 15% for line transects and 30% for point transects) when the shoulder of maximum detectability was narrow, and positive bias (up to 10% for line transects and 15% for point transects) when it was wide. Generating unbiased simulations requires careful choice of detection function or very large datasets. Practitioners should collect data that result in detection functions with a shoulder similar to a half-normal and use the monotonicity constraint. Narrow-shouldered detection functions can be avoided through good field procedures and those with wide shoulder are unlikely to occur, due to heterogeneity in detectability.     

Tillage, intercrop, and controlled drainage-subirrigation influence atrazine, metribuzin, and metolachlor loss

Atrazine (6-chloro-N2-ethyl-N4-isopropyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine) and metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] have been found with increasing occurrence in rivers and streams. Their continued use will require changes in agricultural practices. We compared water quality from four crop-tillage treatments: (i) conventional moldboard plow (MB), (ii) MB with ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) intercrop (IC), (iii) soil saver (SS), and (iv) SS + IC; and two drainage control treatments, drained (D) and controlled drainage-subirrigation (CDS). Atrazine (1.1 kg a.i. ha-1), metribuzin [4-amino-6-(1,1-dimethylethyl)-3-(methylthio)-1,2,4-triazine-5(4H)-one] (0.5 kg a.i. ha-1), and metolachlor (1.68 kg a.i. ha-1) were applied preemergence in a band over seeded corn (Zea mays L.) rows. Herbicide concentration and losses were monitored from 1992 to spring 1995. Annual herbicide losses ranged from < 0.3 to 2.7% of application. Crop-tillage treatment influenced herbicide loss in 1992 but not in 1993 or 1994, whereas CDS affected partitioning of losses in most years. In 1992, SS + IC reduced herbicide loss in tile drains and surface runoff by 46 to 49% compared with MB. The intercrop reduced surface runoff, which reduced herbicide transport. Controlled drainage-subirrigation increased herbicide loss in surface runoff but decreased loss through tile drainage so that total herbicide loss did not differ between drainage treatments. Desethyl atrazine [6-chloro-N-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] comprised 7 to 39% of the total triazine loss.     

Grass shrimp (Palaemonetes spp.) play a pivotal trophic role in enhancing Ruppia maritima

Coupled trophic-engineer interactions are potentially important for maintaining habitat function and ecosystem services. As ephemeral submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), Ruppia maritima has a short well-defined growth-senescence cycle and should benefit from any ecological interaction that enhances its physical condition and longevity. Grass shrimp (Palaemonetes spp.) are abundant facultative grazers of epiphytic algae and conveyors of nutrients in tidal marsh and SAV habitats. Grass shrimp addition consistently enhanced Ruppia biomass and shoot density in a series of three field experiments conducted in Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, Mississippi, USA. In two experiments, epiphyte grazing by grass shrimp enhanced Ruppia by inhibiting die-back during the mid- and latter stages of the Ruppia life cycle. Despite a nonsignificant epiphyte grazing effect, grass shrimp also enhanced Ruppia during its early growth stage in a third experiment. In that experiment, nutrient addition also significantly increased epiphyte biomass. Grass shrimp may have fostered the early growth of Ruppia through direct deposition of feces to the sediment in the third experiment. Grass shrimp play a pivotal trophic role in the maintenance of Ruppia through context-dependent interactions involving stage of the SAV life cycle, season, and nutrient limitation.     

The Importance of Analysis Method for Breeding Bird Survey Population Trend Estimates

Population trends from the Breeding Bird Survey are widely used to focus conservation efforts on species thought to be in decline and to test preliminary hypotheses regarding the causes of these declines. A number of statistical methods have been used to estimate population trends, but there is no consensus as to which is the most reliable. We quantified differences in trend estimates or different analysis methods applied to the same subset of Breeding Bird Survey data. We estimated trends for 115 species in British Columbia using three analysis methods: U.S. National Biological Service route regression, Canadian Wildlife Service route regression, and nonparametric rank-trends analysis. Overall, the number of species estimated to be declining was similar among the three methods, but the number of statistically significant declines was not similar (15, 8, and 29 respectively). In addition, many differences existed among methods in the trend estimates assigned to individual species. Comparing the two route regression methods, Canadian Wildlife Service estimates had a greater absolute magnitude on average than those of the U.S. National Biological Service method. U.S. National Biological Service estimates were on average more positive than the Canadian Wildlife Service estimates when the respective agency's data selection criteria were applied separately. These results imply that our ability to detect population declines and to prioritize species of conservation concern depend strongly upon the analysis method used. This highlights the need for further research to determine how best to accurately estimate trends from the data. We suggest a method for evaluating the performance of the analysis methods by using simulated Breeding Bird Survey data.     

Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science,Climate Policy,Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

We report the results of an exploratory study that examines the judgments of climate scientists, climate policy experts, astrophysicists, and non-experts (N?=?3367) about the factors that contribute to the creation and persistence of disagreement within climate science and astrophysics and about how one should respond to expert disagreement. We found that, as compared to non-experts, climate experts believe that within climate science (i) there is less disagreement about climate change, (ii) methodological factors play less of a role in generating disagreements, (iii) fewer personal or institutional biases influence climate research, and (iv) there is more agreement about which methods should be used to examine relevant phenomena we also observed that the uniquely American political context predicted experts’ judgments about some of these factors. We also found that, in regard to disagreements concerning cosmic ray physics, and commensurate with the greater inherent uncertainty and data lacunae in their field, astrophysicists working on cosmic rays were generally more willing to acknowledge expert disagreement, more open to the idea that a set of data can have multiple valid interpretations, and generally less quick to dismiss someone articulating a non-standard view as non-expert, than climate scientists were in regard to climate science.     

Modelling contra-flow in crowd dynamics DEM simulation

This paper highlights the growing need for a realistic crowd simulation in the design of large venues such as concert halls and stadia. A discrete element method (DEM) technique for modelling crowd dynamics has been developed that represents each person within the model as 3 overlapping circles, a position, orientation and velocity in 2D. Contact forces between elements are included in the model as well as psychological forces, motive forces and moments. The motion of each person is then modelled in a Newtonian manner with a numerical integration time-stepping scheme. The model has been shown previously to work well in predicting egress. In this paper the predicted model behaviour is compared to actual video footage shot at various locations around University Park Campus, Nottingham. It did not match well to the video footage when people are moving towards each other, as in cases of contra-flow on a walkway. In order to improve the model, a general algorithm for ‘avoidance’ was included which appeared to make the model significantly more realistic in these cases. The paper also shows areas for further potential development, such as incorporating people into associative groups such as family or friends.