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This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the traditional Gordon–Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness–vulnerability analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon–Schaefer model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate fundamental robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance.  相似文献   
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Significant environmental damage can result from the use of natural resources such as cement, aggregate, and water in concrete production. Thus, more...  相似文献   
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The main objective of this study is to generate a knowledge base which is composed of user-defined variables and included raster imagery, vector coverage, spatial models, external programs, and simple scalars and to develop an expert classification using Landsat 7 (ETM+) imagery for land cover classification in a part of Trabzon city. Expert systems allow for the integration of remote-sensed data with other sources of geo-referenced information such as land use data, spatial texture, and digital elevation model to obtain greater classification accuracy. Logical decision rules are used with the various datasets to assign class values for each pixel. Expert system is very suitable for the work of image interpretation as a powerful means of information integration. Landsat ETM data acquired in the year 2000 were initially classified into seven classes for land cover using a maximum likelihood decision rule. An expert system was constructed to perform post-classification sorting of the initial land cover classification using additional spatial datasets such as land use data. The overall accuracy of expert classification was 95.80%. Individual class accuracy ranged from 75% to 100% for each class.  相似文献   
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Recently, policymakers have been developing some policies to improve environmental quality. Environmental taxes are the most important of these...  相似文献   
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Military flight manuals contain three types of warnings; WARNING, CAUTION and NOTE messages convey personal injury or loss of life hazards, material damage hazards and essential information respectively. Effectiveness of these warning messages is crucial for flight safety. A way to enhance warning effectiveness is pairing warning messages with compatible symbols. However, no symbol was used with warning messages in current flight manuals. In this study, three pictorial symbols were designed for flight manual warnings. Comprehension and hazard perception of designed symbols were tested through matching test and psychometric rating, respectively, by Turkish military pilots. Results showed that comprehension and hazard perception of the symbols were sufficient and compatible with content of warning messages in flight manuals. It was concluded that accompanying warning messages with these symbols could contribute to effectiveness of flight manual warnings.  相似文献   
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This study was carried out to develop and validate a reliable analytical procedure for trifluralin analysis in wind-eroded sediments. Soil sediments trapped in BEST sediment traps were subjected to QuEChERS extraction method, incorporating a simple simultaneous cleanup step, followed by trifluralin analysis with GC-ECD. Results revealed that QuEChERS method offered a potential alternative technique for pesticide extraction from soil samples. The validity of analytical method was performed by the method-performance criteria such as, recovery, LOD, LOQ repeatability, precision, and all found to be within the required limits. It was also observed in this study that herbicide concentrations in the wind-eroded sediment did not vary with the time and trap height. Trifluralin concentrations of surface soil after four erosion events were higher (626.05 μg/kg) than wind-eroded soil (450.08 μg/kg).  相似文献   
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