Adaptation of the BOXURB model in a southeastern European environment: the case of Athens

The present work describes the adaptation and application of an operational air quality forecast model in a net grid of (1 x 1) km(2) emission source resolution, covering the Greater Area of Athens, Greece. The model is used to estimate the hourly concentrations of nitrogen oxides at a receptor grid of 17 monitoring stations for the 10-year period 1995-2004. The analysis reveals that the best model performance occurs under heavy-traffic conditions, whereas in rural and industrial areas, the model performance is worse.     

Temperature inversion characteristics in relation to synoptic circulation above Athens,Greece

In this paper, the characteristic properties of inversions formed inside the lower boundary layer over Athens, Greece, were studied using 35-year radiosonde measurements of temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure. The analysis revealed that the inversion parameters demonstrate considerable seasonal variation. Specifically, inversions associated with weak anticyclonic conditions are more frequent during the winter and summer months, while during spring, weak lows are more probable to produce inversions. Some theoretically expected associations between synoptic circulation patterns and certain inversion parameters were also identified.     

Conservation and Management for Multiple Species: Integrating Field Research and Modeling into Management Decisions

Multiple-species reserves aim at supporting viable populations of selected species. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a group of methods for predicting such measures as extinction risk based on species-specific data. These methods include models that simulate the dynamics of a population or a metapopulation. A PVA model for the California gnatcatcher in Orange County was developed with landscape (GIS) data on the habitat characteristics and requirements and demographic data on population dynamics of the species. The potential applications of this model include sensitivity analysis that provides guidance for planning fieldwork, designing reserves, evaluating management options, and assessing human impact. The method can be extended to multiple species by combining habitat suitability maps for selected species with weights based on the threat faced by each species, and the contribution of habitat patches to the persistence of each species. These applications and extensions, together with the ability of the model to combine habitat and demographic data, make PVA a powerful tool for the design, conservation, and management of multiple species reserves.     

A comparative study on various statistical techniques predicting ozone concentrations: implications to environmental management

The objective of the present work is to compare various techniques for modeling the dependence of the tropospheric ozone concentrations on several meteorological and pollutant parameters. The study focuses on two different sites in the metropolitan area of Athens, Greece; one in the city centre and another one in the suburbs. It is found that although simple Linear Regression Analysis fails to construct accurate equations due to the existence of multicollinearity among the independent variables, still various combinations of a Multivariate Method (PCA) and Stepwise Regression Analysis manage to produce equations free of the multicollinearity issue. The derived formulas are validated and prove to have R(2) values in the order of 0.8 approximately. However, the equations are found to be unsuccessful in case of severe episodes. For this reason, a new procedure is followed for estimating the ozone values in case of episodes exclusively. The new R(2) value is estimated to be 0.9, approximately.     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Fire Management,Managed Relocation,and Land Conservation Options for Long‐Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate,Urbanization, and Fire Regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long‐lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire‐prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long‐lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land‐use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land‐use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. Manejo de Incendios, Reubicación Administrada y Opciones de Conservación de Suelo para Plantas de Vida Larga con Sembrado Obligado bajo los Cambios Globales en el Clima, la Urbanización y el Régimen de Incendios     

Forecasting hourly PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentration in Cyprus through artificial neural networks and multiple regression models: implications to local environmental management

In the present work, two types of artificial neural network (NN) models using the multilayer perceptron (MLP) and the radial basis function (RBF) techniques, as well as a model based on principal component regression analysis (PCRA), are employed to forecast hourly PM₁₀ concentrations in four urban areas (Larnaca, Limassol, Nicosia and Paphos) in Cyprus. The model development is based on a variety of meteorological and pollutant parameters corresponding to the 2-year period between July 2006 and June 2008, and the model evaluation is achieved through the use of a series of well-established evaluation instruments and methodologies. The evaluation reveals that the MLP NN models display the best forecasting performance with R ² values ranging between 0.65 and 0.76, whereas the RBF NNs and the PCRA models reveal a rather weak performance with R ² values between 0.37-0.43 and 0.33-0.38, respectively. The derived MLP models are also used to forecast Saharan dust episodes with remarkable success (probability of detection ranging between 0.68 and 0.71). On the whole, the analysis shows that the models introduced here could provide local authorities with reliable and precise predictions and alarms about air quality if used on an operational basis.     

Quantification of Extinction Risk: IUCN's System for Classifying Threatened Species

Abstract: The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria.     

Human health damage caused by particulate matter PM10 and ozone in urban environments: the case of Athens, Greece

Studies conducted over the past decades have provided substantial evidence that both the long- and the short-term exposures to ozone and particulate matter are responsible for mortality and cardiopulmonary morbidity. This paper examines the relationship between exposure to ambient concentrations of ozone (O₃) and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM₁₀) and public health and provides the quantification of the burden of disease from PM₁₀ and O₃-related mortality and morbidity through a Life Cycle Impact Assessment focused on the greater area of Athens, Greece. Thus, characterizations factors (CFs) for human health damage are calculated in 17 sites in Athens, in terms of the annual marginal change in the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to a marginal increase in the ambient concentrations. It is found that the PM₁₀ intake factors range between 1.25?×?10^?6 and 2.78?×?10^?6, suggesting that 1.25–2.78 μg of PM₁₀ are inhaled by the Athenian population per kg of PM₁₀ in the urban atmosphere. Mortality due to chronic exposure to PM₁₀ has a dominant contribution to years of life lost with values ranging between 6.2?×?10^?5 and 1.1?×?10^?4. On the other hand, the mortality caused by short-term exposure to O₃ is weaker with the CFs ranging between 1.58?×?10^?7?years of life lost in the urban/traffic areas and 4.71?×?10^?7?years in the suburbs. Finally, it is found that 9,000 DALYs are lost on average in Athens, corresponding to 0.0018 DALYs per person. This is equal to 0.135 DALYs per person over a lifetime of approximately 75 years, assuming constant emission rates for the whole period.