Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.     

Advancing the Integration of History and Ecology for Conservation

Abstract: The important role of humans in the development of current ecosystems was recognized decades ago; however, the integration of history and ecology in order to inform conservation has been difficult. We identified four issues that hinder historical ecological research and considered possible solutions. First, differences in concepts and methods between the fields of ecology and history are thought to be large. However, most differences stem from miscommunication between ecologists and historians and are less substantial than is usually assumed. Cooperation can be achieved by focusing on the features ecology and history have in common and through understanding and acceptance of differing points of view. Second, historical ecological research is often hampered by differences in spatial and temporal scales between ecology and history. We argue that historical ecological research can only be conducted at extents for which sources in both disciplines have comparable resolutions. Researchers must begin by clearly defining the relevant scales for the given purpose. Third, periods for which quantitative historical sources are not easily accessible (before AD 1800) have been neglected in historical ecological research. Because data from periods before 1800 are as relevant to the current state of ecosystems as more recent data, we suggest that historical ecologists actively seek out data from before 1800 and apply analytic methods commonly used in ecology to these data. Fourth, humans are not usually considered an intrinsic ecological factor in current ecological research. In our view, human societies should be acknowledged as integral parts of ecosystems and societal processes should be recognized as driving forces of ecosystem change.     

Methods to estimate solar radiation dosimetry in coral reefs using remote sensed, modeled, and in situ data

Solar irradiance has been increasingly recognized as an important determinant of bleaching in coral reefs, but measurements of solar radiation exposure within coral reefs have been relatively limited. Solar radiation dosimetry within multiple coral reef areas of South Florida was assessed using remote sensed, modeled, and measured values during a minor bleaching event during August 2005. Coral reefs in the Dry Tortugas and Upper Keys had similar diffuse downwelling attenuation coefficients (Kd, m(-1)), whereas Kd values were significantly greater in the Middle and Lower Keys. Mean 1% attenuation depths varied by reef region for ultraviolet B (UVB; 9.7 to 20 m), ultraviolet A (UVA; 22 to 40 m) and visible (27 to 43 m) solar radiation. Solar irradiances determined from remote sensed data were significantly correlated with measured values, but were generally overestimated at the depth of corals. Solar irradiances modeled using an atmospheric radiative transfer model parameterized with site specific approximations of cloud cover showed close agreement with measured values. Estimated daily doses (W h/m(2)) of UVB (0.01-19), UVA (2-360) and visible (29-1,653) solar radiation varied with coral depth (2 to 24 m) and meteorological conditions. These results indicate large variation in solar radiation dosimetry within coral reefs that may be estimated with reasonable accuracy using regional Kd measurements and radiative transfer modeling.     

The condition of coral reefs in South Florida (2000) using coral disease and bleaching as indicators

The destruction of coral reef habitats has occurred at unprecedented levels during the last three decades. Coral disease and bleaching in the Caribbean and South Florida have caused extensive coral mortality with limited recovery, often coral reefs are being replaced with turf algae. Acroporids were once dominant corals and have diminished to the state where they are being considered as endangered species. Our survey assessed the condition of reef corals throughout South Florida. A probability-based design produced unbiased estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition, measured as the absence or presence and frequency or prevalence of coral diseases and bleaching intensity over large geographic regions. This approach allowed us to calculate a quantifiable level of uncertainty. Coral condition was estimated for 4100 hectares (ha) (or 41.0 km²) of coral reefs in South Florida, including reefs in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), New Grounds, Dry Tortugas National Park (DTNP), and Biscayne National Park (BNP). The absence or presence of coral disease, causal coral bleaching, partial bleaching and coral paling were not good indicators of overall coral condition. It was more useful to report the prevalence of anomalies that indicated a compromised condition at both the population and community levels. For example, 79% of the area in South Florida had less than 6% of the coral colonies diseased, whereas only 2.2% (97.15 ha) of the sampled area had a maximum prevalence of 13% diseased coral colonies at any single location. The usefulness of causal bleaching might be more important when considering the prevalence of each of the three different states at a single location. For example, paling was observed over the entire area, whereas bleaching and partial bleaching occurred at 19 and 41% of the area, respectively. An index for coral reef condition might integrate the prevalence and species affected by each bleaching state at individual locations. By establishing these baselines, future surveys can examine changes and trends in the spatial distribution of coral conditions in South Florida and able to score the reefs as to their health status.