Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Prenatal diagnosis and intrafamilial clinical heterogeneity of Fraser syndrome

Fraser syndrome (MIM 219000) is a rare disorder of autosomal recessive inheritance, characterized by the association of cryptophthalmos, syndactyly and genital abnormalities. Here we report on two cases of Fraser syndrome (cryptophthalmos syndrome) in a non-consanguineous couple, with variable expression in echographic, clinical and autopsy findings. Furthermore, we highlight the difficulties in prenatal diagnosis of Fraser syndrome. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal diagnosis of Juberg–Hayward syndrome

Juberg–Hayward syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive syndrome characterised by the association of growth retardation, microcephaly, cleft lip and palate, and thumb and radial ray abnormalities. To date, no prenatal cases have been reported. Here, we report on the first prenatal case of Juberg–Hayward syndrome. The diagnosis was established following fetopathological study. Besides the cardinal features of the syndrome, this prenatal case was remarkable for the severity of the short arm malformation and by the finding of big toe agenesis and cerebral abnormalities including hydrocephalus, agenesis of corpus callosum, and cerebellar hypoplasia. We conclude that the diagnosis of Juberg–Hayward syndrome can be discussed prenatally following ultrasound diagnosis of the association of intrauterine growth restriction, microcephaly, thumb/radial anomalies, and cleft lip/palate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical loads for Finnish lakes: comparison of three steady-state models

Three simple steady-state water-chemistry models are used to calculate critical loads of sulfur for lakes in Finland. Because of the high concentrations of organic matter in Finnish lakes, the influence of organic anions on the calculation of critical loads has been given special attention. The first two methods are well known ion-balance methods which have been used in many previous lake-acidification studies. The third method, developed for this study, includes the numerical solution of equilibrium equations for organic anions, inorganic carbon species and inorganic monomeric aluminum. The original pH and aluminum concentration of the lakes are estimated with this model, and a method to estimate the original acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) by simulating a Gran-titration is also tested on the lake data. Uncertainty in the predictions is estimated by varying the most critical model parameters.     

Yield and grain quality of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers

Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Drabant) was exposed to different concentrations of ozone in open-top chambers for two growing seasons, 1987 and 1988, at a site located in south-west Sweden. The chambers were placed in a field of commercially grown spring wheat. The treatments were charcoal-filtered air (CF), non-filtered air (NF) and non-filtered air plus extra ozone (NF(+)). In 1988, one additional ozone concentration (NF(++)) was used. Grain yield was affected by the ozone concentration of the air. Air filtration resulted in an increase in grain yield of about 7% in both years, compared to NF. The addition of ozone (NF(+), NF(++)) reduced grain yield and increased the content of crude protein of the grain in both years. Filtration of the air had no significant effect on the content of crude protein, compared to NF. The results showed a strong positive chamber effect on grain yield in the cold and wet summer of 1987. In 1988, there was no net chamber effect on grain yield. The relative differences between the CF, NF and NF(+) treatments with respect to grain yield were of the same magnitude in the two years, despite the very different weather conditions.     

Reversibility of stemflow-induced soil acidification in Swedish beech forest

Stemwater running down the trunks of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) has an acidifying effect on soil near the stem. The deposition of acidifying substances may be two to four times higher close to the stem compared to in the stand in general. To study reversibility of soil acidification, 72 stumps of beech trees were chosen from five different year classes of felling (3, 6, 9, 14-15, 25-30), representing the years when stemflow ceased to affect the soil. The H(+) concentration (pH KCl) in the topsoil (0-5 cm) differed between the distances 10-30 cm and 230-250 cm from the stumps, the soil close to the stem being more acid. The longer the time since felling the smaller the differences in H(+) concentration became. This reduction in soil acidity amounted to ca. 50% after 15 years, and only small further changes occurred over the next ten years. This indicates that soil may not recover fully from acidification, or does so at a rather slow rate after the initial 15 years of recovery.