What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

The Use of Atmospheric Dispersion Models in Risk Assessment Decision Support Systems for Pesticides

In the evaluation of potentially adverse effects oforganic chemicals such as pesticides on theenvironment the atmosphere may play an important role.After its release to the atmosphere the chemical willbe transported/dispersed in the atmosphere and finallyit will be removed either by atmospheric-chemicaldestruction or by deposition to the underlying soil orsurface water. In a risk assessment decision supportsystem both ambient concentrations and depositionfluxes must be known to evaluate the risk of directexposure (inhalation) or the risk of soil and watercontamination caused by deposition. This paperdiscusses the use of atmospheric dispersion models insuch risk assessment decision support systems.     

Distribution and relationship between antimicrobial resistance genes and heavy metals in surface sediments of Taihu Lake, China

Heavy metals, pharmaceuticals, and other wastes released into the environment can significantly influence environmental antibiotic resistance. We investigated the occurrence of 22 antimicrobial resistance genes(ARGs) and 10 heavy metal concentrations, and the relationship between ARGs and heavy metals in surface sediment from seven sites of Lake Taihu. The results showed significant correlations(p 0.05) between sediment ARG levels,especially for tetracycline and sulfonamides(e.g., tet(A), tet(D), tet(E), tet(O), sul1, sul2 and int-1) and specific heavy metals(Fe, Mn, Cr, Cu, Zn, among others) in the Lake. In the surface sediments, heavy metals showed an interaction with resistance genes, but the strength of interaction was diminished with increasing depth. For most of the heavy metals, the concentration of elements in the top sediments was higher than that in other depths.Tetracycline resistance genes(tet(A), tet(B), tet(D), tet(E) and tet(O), β-lactam resistance genes(SHV, TEM, CTX, OXA and OXY) and sulfonamide resistance genes(sulA, sul1, sul2, sul3 and int-1) were detected. They showed a trend which inferred a statistically significant increase followed by decreases in the relative abundance of these ARGs(normalized to 16 S rRNA genes) with increasing depth. This study revealed that tet(A), tet(O), TEM, OXY, int-1, sul1 and sul3 were widespread in surface sediments with high abundance, indicating that these genes deserve more attention in future work.     

Changing morphology of Ghana’s Accra coast

Coastal features in Ghana's Accra coast reflect both past and present processes that have been undergoing changes. These changes are influenced by a range of morphogenic factors such as geology and climatic conditions. These regimes have shaped the coastal geomorphic features through weathering processes that decompose and disintegrate the coastal rock. Sea level rise due to climate change is expected to increase coastal erosion and thus result in rapid changes in shoreline positions. Historic rate of sea level rise in Accra coast is about 2 mm/yr (Ibe & Quelennec, 1989) which is predicted to reach approximately 6 mm/yr in the next century since it conforms to the global change (Armah et al., 2005). This will result in flooding of vulnerable areas and enable waves to break closer inland. The effectiveness of the erosion process is aided considerably by the type of geology. Accra coastal zone has three types of rock in three identified geomorphic regions. They include unconsolidated and poorly consolidated rock along the western region, the Accraian series occupying the central region and the Dahomeyan series in the eastern region. The geology has thus influenced the extent to which the coastal features have changed and the type of cliff that is formed as a result of erosion within the regions. Generally, soft rock coastal features decay more rapidly than those of hard rock and tend to act as sediment sources. Human activities such as dam construction over the Densu River, engineering interventions to check the spread of erosion and sand mining has created sediment deficit which has exacerbated coastal erosion in Accra. Anthropogenic factors are estimated to account for 70-90% of coastal erosion problems in Accra.     

Effect of predicted sea level rise on tourism facilities along Ghana’s Accra coast

Recent sea-level rise has mostly been attributed to global warming and this process is expected to continue for centuries. The extent of the impact of sea level rise on tourism in Ghana is unknown though there are predictions that some prominent tourism facilities are at risk. This paper assessed the potential impact of enhanced sea level rise (ESLR) for different IPCC scenarios on tourism facilities along the coast of Accra. Shorelines for 1974 and 2005 were extracted from orthophotos and topographic maps, and vulnerability for tourism facilities estimated. Mean sea level measurements indicated an average rise of 3.3 mm/year, while the shoreline eroded by as much as 0.86 m/year. Predictions for Ghana showed 10 cm, 23.4 cm and 36.4 cm sea level rise for 2020, 2060 and 2100 respectively with 1990 as base year. Modelled predictions for the years 2020, 2060 and 2100 based on A2 (enhanced regional economic growth) and B2 (more environmentally focused) IPCC scenarios indicated that 13 tourism facilities are at risk to sea level rise. Out of the total number of tourism facilities at risk, 31 % cannot physically withstand the event of sea level rise hazard. In terms of socio-economic vulnerability, accommodation facilities are the most susceptible. Salinization and sanitation problems along the coast will adversely affect tourism.     

Urban Air Quality Assessment Model: UAQAM

The Urban Air Quality Assessment Model (UAQAM) calculates urban concentrations caused by city emissions themselves, the so-called city background concentration. Three versions of the model for describing the dispersion were studied: Box, Gifford Hanna (GH) and a combined form of these two (Box–GH model). Regional background emissions contributing to the urban background concentration were accounted for by using measurements and calculations from a dispersion model on the continental scale. The results of the three UAQAM versions for a number of European cities were compared to measurements of SO₂ and NO _X . The Box–GH model shows better results when compared to the Box model and slightly better results in comparison to the GH model. The Box–GH model has been taken as a starting point for the assessment of urban air quality with UAQAM.     

Two and three-dimensional shoreline behaviour at a MESO-MACROTIDAL barred beach

The present work investigates cross-shore shoreline migration as well as its alongshore variability (with deformation) on timescales of days to years using 6 years of time-averaged video images. The variability of the shoreline is estimated through empirical statistical methods with comprehensive reference to three scales of variability. At the meso-to macro-tidal barred Biscarrosse beach, shoreline responds in decreasing order at seasonal (winter/summer cycles, 52%), event (storms, 28%) and inter-annual scales. Whereas seasonal evolution is dominated by wave climate modulation, short-term evolution is influenced by tidal range and surf-zone sandbar characteristics. The influence of tide range and sandbars increases when timescale decreases. This is even more the case for the alongshore deformation of the shoreline which is dominated by short-term evolution. An EOF analysis reveals that the first mode of shoreline change time series is associated with cross-shore migration and explains 58% of the shoreline variability. The rest of the modes are associated to deformation which explain 42% of shoreline variability.     

Shoreline morphological changes and the human factor. Case study of Accra Ghana

The interface between the sea and land is a very dynamic system that is always migrating landward or seaward. The landward migration results in the shoreline threatening coastal infrastructure and destroying the coastal environment. Coastal erosion has resulted in both social and economic problems. Coastal cities have also experienced increasing infrastructure development and population growth. This has resulted in a land “squeeze situation” in which both the shoreline and the “humanline” are competing for space along the coast. This struggle for space could result in serious environmental disaster as a result of the dynamics of the oceanic system, which could impact the immediate environs severely. The aim of this study was to determine if the rate of human encroachment of coastal lands for development exceed the rate at which the shoreline is moving inland as part of its natural cyclic behaviour. This study used 1985 aerial photographs and 2005 orthophoto map of the Accra western coast. Major land cover was identified, classified and overlayed in GIS environment. This enabled changes to be estimated. The shorelines were also digitised and the rate of change computed using the DSAS software. The results indicate that the estimated total area of land lost by human encroachment on the coastal land within the period under study is about 242,139.7 m2. However, the rate of land lost to human development is about 8,349.64 m2/year, which is relatively high. The historic rate of erosion computed for the period under study is about 1.92 m/year. Comparing the two rates indicates that human activities are moving closer to the shoreline as compared to the rate at which the shoreline is moving inland. This study recommends that setback lines should be put in place to protect lands for the shoreline’s cyclic activities.