Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Biological production of nitrite in seawater

The relative importance of 3 different sources for biological production of nitrite in seawater was studied. Decomposition of fecal pellets of the copepod Calanus helgolandicus (at a concentration of approximately 12 g-at N/l), in seawater medium, released small amounts of ammonia over a 6 week period. It nitrifying bacteria were added to the fecal pellets nitrite was barely detectable over the same period. Decomposition of phytoplankton (present at a concentration of about 8 g-at particulate plant N/l) with added heterotrophic bacteria, released moderate amounts of ammonia over a 12 week period. If the ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosocystis oceanus was added to the decomposing algae, nitrite was produced at a rate of 0.2 g-at N/l/week. Heterotrophic nitrification was not observed when 7 open-ocean bacteria were tested for their ability to oxidize ammonia. The diatom Skeletonema costatum, either non-starved or starved of nitrogen, produced nitrite when growing with 150 or 50 g-at NO ₂ ^- -N/l at a light intensity of about 0.01 ly/min. When nitrate in the medium was exhausted, S. costatum assimilated nitrite. If starved of vitamin B₁₂, both non-N-starved and N-starved cells of S. costatum produced nitrite in the medium with 150 g-at NO ₃ ^- -N/l. Nitrate was not exhausted and cell densities reached 2x10⁵/ml due to vitamin B₁₂ deficiency. If light intensity was reduced to 0.003 ly/min under otherwise similar conditions, cells did not grow due to insufficient light, and nitrite was not produced. In the sea, it appears that, in certain micro-environments, decomposition of particulate matter releases ammonia with its subsequent oxidation to nitrite. The amounts of these nutrients and the rate at which they are produced are dependent upon the nature of the materials undergoing decomposition and the associated bacteria. In certain other areas of the sea, where phytoplankton standing stock is high and nitrate is non-limiting, excretion by these organisms is a major source of nitrite.     

Streamwater phosphorus and nitrogen across a gradient in rural–agricultural land use intensity

This paper provides an overview of the impacts of rural land use on lowland streamwater phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and P loads and sources in lowland streams. Based on weekly water quality monitoring, the impacts of agriculture on streamwater P and N hydrochemistry were examined along a gradient of rural–agricultural land use, by monitoring three sets of ‘paired’ (near-adjacent) rural headwater streams, draining catchments which are representative of the major geology, soil types and rural/agricultural land use types of large areas of lowland Britain. The magnitude and timing of P and N inputs were assessed and the load apportionment model (LAM) was applied to quantify ‘continuous’ (point) source and ‘flow-dependent’ (diffuse) source contributions of P to these headwater streams. The results show that intensive arable farming had only a comparatively small impact on streamwater total phosphorus (TP loads), with highly consistent stream diffuse-source TP yields of ca. 0.5 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1 for the predominantly arable catchments with both clay and loam soils, compared with 0.4 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1 for low agricultural intensity grassland/woodland on similar soil types. In contrast, intensive livestock farming on heavy clay soils resulted in dramatically higher stream diffuse-source TP yields of 2 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1. The streamwater hydrochemistry of the livestock-dominated catchment was characterised by high concentrations of organic P, C and N fractions, associated with manure and slurry sources. Across the study sites, the impacts of human settlement were clearly identifiable with effluent inputs from septic tanks and sewage treatment works resulting in large-scale increases in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads and concentrations. At sites heavily impacted by rural settlements, SRP concentrations under baseflow conditions reached several hundred μg-P L^?1. Load apportionment modelling demonstrated significant ‘point-source’ P inputs to the streams even where there were no sewage treatment works within the upstream catchment. This indicates that, even in sparsely populated rural headwater catchments, small settlements and even isolated groups of houses are sufficient to cause significant nutrient pollution and that septic tank systems serving these rural communities are actually operating as multiple point sources, rather than a diffuse input.     

Linking Soil Erosion to Instream Dissolved Phosphorus Cycling and Periphyton Growth

Phosphorus (P) is a limiting nutrient in freshwater systems and when present in runoff from agricultural lands or urban centers may contribute to excessive periphyton growth. In this study, we examined the link between soil erosion and delivery of eroded soil to streams during flow events, and the impact of that freshly deposited soil on dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentrations and periphyton growth under baseflow conditions when the risk of stream eutrophication is greatest. A microcosm experiment was designed to simulate the release of P from soil which had been amended with different amounts of P fertilizer to overlying water during baseflow conditions. Unglazed tiles, inoculated for five days in a second order stream, were incubated for seven days in microcosms containing soil with eight levels of soil Mehlich‐3 plant available phosphorus (M3P) ranging from 20 to 679 mg/kg M3P. Microcosm DRP was monitored. Following incubation tiles were scraped and the periphyton analyzed for chlorophyll a. Microcosm DRP concentrations increased with increasing soil M3P and equilibrium phosphorus concentration (EPC₀). Relationships between M3P, EPC₀, and DRP were nonlinear and increases in soil M3P and/or DRP had a greater impact on biomass accumulation when these parameters were above threshold values of 30 mg/kg M3P and 0.125 mg/L DRP. Significantly, this ecological threshold corresponds to the agronomic thresholds above which increased soil M3P does not increase plant response.     

A review and model assessment of (32)P and (33)P uptake to biota in freshwater systems

Bioaccumulation of key short-lived radionuclides such as ¹³¹I and ^32,33P may be over-estimated since concentration ratios (CRs) are often based on values for the corresponding stable isotope which do not account for radioactive decay during uptake via the food chain. This study presents estimates for bioaccumulation of radioactive phosphorus which account for both radioactive decay and varying ambient levels of stable P in the environment. Recommended interim CR values for radioactive forms of P as a function of bioavailable stable phosphorus in the water body are presented. Values of CR are presented for three different trophic levels of the aquatic food chain; foodstuffs from all three trophic levels may potentially be consumed by humans. It is concluded that current recommended values of the CR are likely to be significantly over-estimated for radioactive phosphorus in many freshwater systems, particularly lowland rivers. Further research is recommended to field-validate these models and assess their uncertainty. The relative importance of food-chain uptake and direct uptake from water are also assessed from a review of the literature. It can be concluded that food-chain uptake is the dominant accumulation pathway in fish and hence accumulation factors for radioactive phosphorus in farmed fish are likely to be significantly lower than those for wild fish.     

The Impact of Projected Climate Change Scenarios on Nitrogen Yield at a Regional Scale for the Contiguous United States

Improved understanding of the potential regional impacts of projected climatic changes on nitrogen yield is needed to inform water resources management throughout the United States (U.S.). The objective of this research is to look broadly at watersheds in the contiguous U.S. to assess the potential regional impact of changes in precipitation (P) and air temperature (T) on nitrogen yield. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes model and downscaled P and T outputs from 14 general circulation models were used to explore impacts on nitrogen yield. Results of the analysis suggest that projected changes in P and T will decrease nitrogen yield for the majority of the contiguous U.S., including the watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico. Some regions, however, such as the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, are projected to face climatic conditions that, according to the model results, may increase nitrogen yield. Combining the projections of climate‐driven changes in nitrogen yield with projected changes in watershed nitrogen inputs could help water resource managers develop regionally specific, long‐term strategies to mitigate nitrogen pollution.     

Photosynthetic carbon acquisition in the red algaGracilaria conferta

Photosynthetic properties of the common red algaGracilaria conferta, collected from the eastern Mediterranean Sea were investigated in 1989, in order to begin evaluating its adaptative strategies with regard to the inorganic carbon composition of seawater, and to test whether the alleged C₄ photosynthesis of anotherGracilaria species is common within the genus. Net photosynthetic rates ofG. conferta were, under ambient conditions of inorganic carbon (ca. 10µM, CO₂ and 2.2 mM HCO ₃ ^- ), not sensitive to O₂ over the range 10 to 300µM, and the CO₂ compensation point was low (ca. 0.005µM). Ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase was the major carboxylating enzyme, with a crude extract activity of 175µmol CO₂ g^–1 fresh wt h^–1 while phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase were present at 70 and 20%, respectively, of that activity. No activities of the decarboxylases NAD-and NADP-malic enzyme could be detected. The¹⁴C pulse-chase incorporation pattern showed thatG. conferta fixes inorganic carbon via the photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle only, with no evidence for photosynthetic C₄ acid metabolism. Photosynthesis at the natural seawater pH of 8.2 was, at 25°C and saturating light, saturated at the ambient inorganic carbon concentration of 2.5 mM. It is proposed that, under ambient inorganic carbon conditions, a CO₂ concentrating system other than C₄ metabolism provides an internal CO₂ concentration sufficient to suppress the O₂ effect on ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase and, thus, on photorespiration, in a medium where the external free CO₂ concentration is lower than theK _m(CO₂) of the carboxylating enzyme. Since inorganic carbon, under natural saturating light conditions, seems not to be a limiting factor for photosynthesis ofG. conferta, it likely follows that other nutrients limit the growth of this alga in nature.